Predictions for 2024

[raz.org.rain]

6 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

I'd say the nearest analogue match to next year is 2016 for a number of reasons with la niña developing after el niño and a west QBO developing too.  The only difference is that solar activity is notably higher so I will see if I am near enough on the money, think 2019 could be in with a shout too if the positive IOD continues.     

I'm sure I've seen mention of some close analogues to 2003. A repeat of 2003 in this day and age would be legendary.

[LetItSnow!]

10 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

I'm sure I've seen mention of some close analogues to 2003. A repeat of 2003 in this day and age would be legendary.

I think the favourable thing about 2003 was that despite being a very warm year, the seasons seemed to all be... well, seasonable.

Winter 2002/2003 wasn't especially cold overall but had regular cold spells that delivered, particularly January. 

Spring 2003 was often fine, dry and sunny but did have some changeable weather in May - But even then it turned hot at the end.

The summer of 2003 I don't need to comment on! A summer that actually deserved to break the record, but it wasn't extremely dry due to June and July being unsettled so I imagine there was good thundery spells to satisfy the storm lovers.

The autumn was a mixed bag with lots more sunshine and settled weather but also quite cold - October 2003 was the coldest for ten years with some notable spells. September 2003 was consistently warm by day with the warmest maxima since 1959 but the coldest minima since 1993. November saw more warmth with the temperatures getting into the low 20sC IIRC. December 2003 wasn't even that bad, with some cold and snowy weather alternating with standard mild and wet weather, sadly the latter timed for Christmas.

The only thing that I wouldn't have liked (I was 2!) is the dryness - I love me some rain! Apart from that, I wouldn't totally despise a year like that, even as a cold lover. Unlike most years in the 2000s since the heavy lifting was done by the warm months of the year. Every winter month of 2003 is actually below the 1991-2020 average!

Edited December 17, 2023 by LetItSnow!
Correction

[Weather Enthusiast91]

1 hour ago, raz.org.rain said:

I'm sure I've seen mention of some close analogues to 2003. A repeat of 2003 in this day and age would be legendary.

Would be great to have a 2003 redux.  

[lassie23]

the second coming of Bill Giles

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, LetItSnow! said:

I think the favourable thing about 2003 was that despite being a very warm year, the seasons seemed to all be... well, seasonable.

Winter 2002/2003 wasn't especially cold overall but had regular cold spells that delivered, particularly January. 

Spring 2003 was often fine, dry and sunny but did have some changeable weather in May - But even then it turned hot at the end.

The summer of 2003 I don't need to comment on! A summer that actually deserved to break the record, but it wasn't extremely dry due to June and July being unsettled so I imagine there was good thundery spells to satisfy the storm lovers.

The autumn was a mixed bag with lots more sunshine and settled weather but also quite cold - October 2003 was the coldest for ten years with some notable spells. September 2003 was consistently warm by day with the warmest maxima since 1959 but the coldest minima since 1993. November saw more warmth with the temperatures getting into the low 20sC IIRC. December 2003 wasn't even that bad, with some cold and snowy weather alternating with standard mild and wet weather, sadly the latter timed for Christmas.

The only thing that I wouldn't have liked (I was 2!) is the dryness - I love me some rain! Apart from that, I wouldn't totally despise a year like that, even as a cold lover. Unlike most years in the 2000s since the heavy lifting was done by the warm months of the year. Every winter month of 2003 is actually below the 1991-2020 average!

2003 was quite an interesting year with varied fayre would take it over 2016 or 2019 anyday.

 

[Scuba steve]

13 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

the second coming of Bill Giles

Hope not the first coming is bad enough

[baddie]

14 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Would be great to have a 2003 redux.  

The best year would be :

Janaury-March 2012
April-June 2020
July-September 2019
Ocotber-December 2010
 

Edited December 18, 2023 by baddie

[Weather Enthusiast91]

2 hours ago, baddie said:

The best year would be :

Janaury-March 2012
April-June 2020
July-September 2019
Ocotber-December 2010
 

That would make for a good seasonal year. Yes please.

[summer blizzard]

Modelling currently suggests that we flip from Nino back to Nina. 

-QBO is likely to flip towards +QBO by end of year. 

-PDO is likely to persist IMO. 

 

2010 and 2022 seem to be the best analogue matches of recent times. 

 

 

[Don]

3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Modelling currently suggests that we flip from Nino back to Nina. 

-QBO is likely to flip towards +QBO by end of year. 

-PDO is likely to persist IMO. 

 

2010 and 2022 seem to be the best analogue matches of recent times. 

 

 

Considering the climate has changed somewhat since 2010, I would say you would have to favour 2022 being the closest match?

[summer blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

Considering the climate has changed somewhat since 2010, I would say you would have to favour 2022 being the closest match?

They were very different years even allowing for warming so I don't think we have to allow a substantial discount to 2022. 

[LetItSnow!]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

Considering the climate has changed somewhat since 2010, I would say you would have to favour 2022 being the closest match?

While to be expected in the warming era, the UK was an oddity in 2010 as many parts of NA and Europe baked in 2010. Perhaps they're more similar than they seem as they both saw extreme heat in Europe, just in 2010 it favoured Russia and those parts. I think it's one of the reasons July 2010 was a strange month here, sort of like a warmer July 2023 - Quite unsettled and cloudy but with a persistent feed of warm air not that far away. I think the extreme eastern coastal regions saw exceptionally above average temperatures that month IIRC - Something like +2-3C above average. They both had blocked Decembers too, though 2010 far more extreme. I often think when analogue matching with telecommunications, it's not about whether said years bring similar conditions every year but the overall pattern. It's why I love making composites of the matches on NOAA because you can see what may be likely to occur and what not and see the margin of error. For example, in the UK an easterly in summer is a fine line between a hot source of air from the SE and a cool, drab NE'ly. 

I will make a composite of all the years that are matches if people tell me more as I'm not sure. I'll post them here. 

[CLReeve]

I'm pretty sure more records wil tumble in 2024, especially those relating to heat.  

[raz.org.rain]

Just now, CLReeve said:

I'm pretty sure more records wil tumble in 2024, especially those relating to heat.  

This is just a gut feeling but I think 2022's record temperature will be challenged next summer. I'm not sure if it'll actually get beat but I do think we'll get pretty close to reaching it again, probably closer to 39° overall. I reckon the overall feature of next summer will be the longevity of hotter and drier periods.

[damianslaw]

Hoping for a far better core summer period in 2024 than the washout that was 2023! 

[MattStoke]

On 18/12/2023 at 23:33, raz.org.rain said:

This is just a gut feeling but I think 2022's record temperature will be challenged next summer. I'm not sure if it'll actually get beat but I do think we'll get pretty close to reaching it again, probably closer to 39° overall. I reckon the overall feature of next summer will be the longevity of hotter and drier periods.

Some of the upper airmasses seen this year would have challenged last year's record breaking with a more favourable surface flow.

[baddie]

My mind is telling me that the middle of Feburary could challenge Feb 2019s record, and with 10 days of wall-to-wall sunshine, then a Mini BFTE to end the month

[John S2]

The main concern I have about 2024 is a likely flip from El Nino to La Nina. If a strong transition between these states coincides with summer then this could be bad news. The following is a guess based on the above, possible SSW early January, plus other factors:

Significant cold mid-Jan to mid-Feb. Notable heatwaves second half of March plus mid-May. Pressure falls last week of May heralding an unsettled June. July & August nothing special but nowhere near as bad as July 2023, possible brief July 2022 type plume but less exceptional. Decent September - much more anticyclonic than the disappointing Septembers of 2022 & 2023.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

43 minutes ago, John S2 said:

The main concern I have about 2024 is a likely flip from El Nino to La Nina. If a strong transition between these states coincides with summer then this could be bad news. The following is a guess based on the above, possible SSW early January, plus other factors:

Significant cold mid-Jan to mid-Feb. Notable heatwaves second half of March plus mid-May. Pressure falls last week of May heralding an unsettled June. July & August nothing special but nowhere near as bad as July 2023, possible brief July 2022 type plume but less exceptional. Decent September - much more anticyclonic than the disappointing Septembers of 2022 & 2023.

September of this year was statistically the joint warmest on record for the UK.  Another variable to look out for is solar activity and whether it can really ramp up.   Also June was the warmest on record as well, @mushymanrobsaid in one of the historical threads to post things that have statistical support as that way you are likely to be respected.   Summer of this year was your typical english summer unlike 2022 which was an exception.   

[John S2]

44 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

September of this year was statistically the joint warmest on record for the UK.  Another variable to look out for is solar activity and whether it can really ramp up.   Also June was the warmest on record as well, @mushymanrobsaid in one of the historical threads to post things that have statistical support as that way you are likely to be respected.   Summer of this year was your typical english summer unlike 2022 which was an exception.   

For brevity I didn't make it clear what I meant by a 'bad' month. I live in NW England, where July 2023 was the wettest July on record and Sept 2023 had double the average rainfall in some places. Excluding periods of extreme cold, [lack of] rainfall is far more important than temperature in how usable a month is for outdoor activity. In my area [NW England] 2022 & 2023 have been generally poor, contrasting with several months during 2021 [including a controversial summer weatherwise] which were more usable.

I trust this paragraph provides sufficient statistical support.

Edited December 24, 2023 by John S2
clarity

[John S2]

On 17/12/2023 at 23:07, damianslaw said:

2003 was quite an interesting year with varied fayre would take it over 2016 or 2019 anyday.

 

Agree. A good year countrywide - almost everywhere had above average sunshine, exceptionally so in many areas. Our best chance of something similar to 2003 would be if ENSO simply returned to neutral from the current Nino, but unfortunately a flip to La Nina appears to be statistically more likely. Given the unpredictability of ENSO states, however, it is possible. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

5 hours ago, John S2 said:

For brevity I didn't make it clear what I meant by a 'bad' month. I live in NW England, where July 2023 was the wettest July on record and Sept 2023 had double the average rainfall in some places. Excluding periods of extreme cold, [lack of] rainfall is far more important than temperature in how usable a month is for outdoor activity. In my area [NW England] 2022 & 2023 have been generally poor, contrasting with several months during 2021 [including a controversial summer weatherwise] which were more usable.

I trust this paragraph provides sufficient statistical support.

This year as a whole has been a mixture of 1976, 1997, 2006 and 2009 mixed in because of el niño.  

[al78]

On 09/12/2023 at 12:37, SunSean said:

I think we are overdue a poor February & June too, in terms of sunshine unfortunately.

June 2020 was wet and quite dull across much of the UK, June 2021 was poor across SE England and June 2019 was dull south of Gtr Manchester/North Yorkshire so I don't think we are overdue a poor June unless climatology dictates one should happen every year. February 2020 was the wettest on record with named storms on back-to-back weekends and destructive flooding, February 2022 was sunny in the east, dull in the west and very wet north of the M4. February 2021 was not great, dull and wet in many places. I'd say that the weather in the UK has taken a dive since lockdown restrictions were first eased and I include in that useless and dangerous levels of heat like in summer 2022.

[al78]

On 24/12/2023 at 17:26, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

September of this year was statistically the joint warmest on record for the UK.  Another variable to look out for is solar activity and whether it can really ramp up.   Also June was the warmest on record as well, @mushymanrobsaid in one of the historical threads to post things that have statistical support as that way you are likely to be respected.   Summer of this year was your typical english summer unlike 2022 which was an exception.   

This year wasn't a typical English summer. You don't get two record or near breaking months in a typical summer. A typical English summer has brief periods of warm and sunny weather followed by cooler wetter conditions, not locked in hot and dry for a month then a massive flip to dull and wet for a month.

23 hours ago, John S2 said:

Agree. A good year countrywide - almost everywhere had above average sunshine, exceptionally so in many areas. Our best chance of something similar to 2003 would be if ENSO simply returned to neutral from the current Nino, but unfortunately a flip to La Nina appears to be statistically more likely. Given the unpredictability of ENSO states, however, it is possible. 

ENSO's effect on European weather is weak so other factors will likely dominate most of the time.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

On 18/12/2023 at 23:30, CLReeve said:

I'm pretty sure more records wil tumble in 2024, especially those relating to heat.  

Aye, especially in Jan/Feb and Nov/Dec