Predictions for 2024

[LetItSnow!]

Becoming a yearly occurence now. These are quite fun. Share your predictions for 2024. They can be as scientific or wild as you like. Mine are purely unscientific and very much a crystal ball kind of affair.

January 2024 — A very cold month with a persistent high pressure "block" over Greenland often steering winds from a north and northeasterly quadrant. Depending on the intensity of the block and cold pools, either the coldest January since 2010 or 1987 with a very small chance of the coldest since 1979 or 1963. A dry month, particularly across Scotland where locally in some spots may see the driest January on record. Further south, more precipiation. At least one big snow event during the month, with one of the most widespread blizzards for decades. A shot at the all time low temperature record under snow covered ground and clear skies with the temperature dipping into the minus twenties Celsius. Dull in most places but sunny in Scotland.

February 2024 — Cold, but perhaps not as much so as January - but more unsettled so perhaps more widely a snowier month. The pattern of January continuing to feed cold air westward and southward but perhaps some milder interludes for the south at times, but at the benefit of more snow further north - though not to paint a picture of a mild month for the south, just with some thaws here and there. Like January, probably at least one big snow event, and maybe a February 1978 style blizzard. Another dull month and rather "wet" too, but a lot of that from melted snowfall. A remarkably wet month on the south coast.

March 2024 — Cold again, but less so. The first run of three colder than average months against the 1961-1990 average since 2013. Blocking remaining strong to our north but slipping further southeastwards to create a Scandinavian high, but also a reinvigorating of the Atlantic - aka a battleground! Probably at least one more cold snap from the east and quite severe with another big dumping of snow, but the block coming under pressure eventually and probably a spell of springlike warmth as the winds back more south/southwesterly. A very wet month, especially further southwest, and extremely dull. The dullest and snowiest Q1 of a year in many years.

April 2024 — Temperatures not far from normal. The northern blocking fades through the month and heights return to their usual position further south, allowing a rather westerly April. Some unusually low pressure systems at times, giving some atypically stormy conditions, but also spells of high pressure too. A little wetter than average with about normal sunshine.

May 2024 — Blocking returns so temperatures rather depressed again. Generally an unsettled month with a southerly tracking jet stream. Cloudy and wet, but warm sectors could give some humid and thundery outbreaks at times too, but generally a cloudy and wet May. Not quite a May 2021 repeat but something like a mixture of May 2002 and May 2015.

June 2024 — A changeable but fairly warm June. Generally unsettled with low pressure to the north and west, but with ridges building in from the south at times to give fine, hot spells at times. Generally sunnier and drier in the southeast, but a fairly dull and notably wet June across Scotland, but fairly warm everywhere. Our first 30C is achieved this month. June 2000/June 2017 vibes.

July 2024 — A very unsettled July with depressed temperatures and excessive rainfall thanks to a southerly tracking jet stream pushing heat far out of NW Europe. Very dull. Could be very thundery, at least locally, due to low pressure systems with cool air aloft and strong heating from the sun. Maybe a June 2012-like thundery episode. May fail to exceed 28-29C all month. July 2009 vibes.

August 2024 — A much warmer and drier month, but nothing to write home about. High pressure dominates, but usually centred over or to the west of the country. Dry in the south, but nearer normal rainfall in the north. Similarly with sunshine, sunnier the further south and west you go. Thinking a top high of 31-32C all month.

September 2024 — Very sunny, dry and warm, with high pressure often centred over the country, bringing fine, warm days, but cool nights at times. Potentially very dry, coming off the back of a dry August in the south. While fine, I don't anticipate a notable heatwave, with the top temperature maybe around 27-29C all month. Days warmer relative to average than the nights, which may be rather cool. 

October 2024 — Returning to unsettled weather with a wet, windy and rather mild October with little in the way of frost but also no real Indian summer either. On the dull side.

November 2024 — Very mild and very wet, especially further north, with a zonal flow bringing lots of moisture laded southwesterly winds. Exceptionally dull.

December 2024 — Mild, dull and dry, with high pressure tending to expand further north, bringing a lot of benign, drizzly and foggy weather, especially to the south. The far north could be quite wet, and perhaps see some Foehn effect warmth, meanwhile the south has the best chance of any bright and frosty weather under ridges of high pressure. Perhaps a foggy spell like December 2006.

2024 —A rather warm year overall and on the wet side, but still the coldest year since 2013.

[SummerShower]

January.  A southerly tracking jet but very wet.  Cold in the North.  Very wet, with cold a mild alternating in the south.  Think Jan 2021.

February.  Very snowy 1st half with an even more southerly tracking jet.  Less cold, but still cold, and dry 2nd half.  Think Feb 47, then 2013.

March.  Mixed, but a notable event at the end of the month, with a late season BFTE pushed northwards by a very early Spanish plume.  Heavy thundersnow on the 24th, but 24C by the 26th.

April.  A decent month.  Think 1st half of April 2020 followed by 2nd half of April 2011.

May.  Unsettled, local convective events, but drier with persistent easterlies in the 2nd half.  Sunny in the west.  Think similar to this year.

June.  1st half similar to 2019 or 2012, 2nd half similar to 2007.  A rather poor month.

July.  The best month of the summer.  A 3 week anticyclone with many 27 to 30C days, with hottest locations varying.  Thundery last 10 days.  Think a slightly lesser version of 2006.

August.  Overall a very wet, but not completely poor month.  1st week like 2004, 2nd week like 2020, so very hot at times, 3rd week like 2014, last 10 days again akin to 2020 with a cold Bank Holiday.

September.  Similar to 2022.  Widespread storms in the 1st week, then non descript.  Warm at the end with 27C on the 30th.

October.  1st few days like 2011 though a degree cooler and missing out on 30C.  The Atlantic will be so warm that a hurricane approaches and becomes extra tropical just 10 miles off lands end.  110mph gusts in the SW on the 18th.  A 13C CET month.  Average rainfall overall.

November.  A cold month, with a first half like 2016 and a northerly shot like 2010 after the 20th.  Coldest since 1993.

December.  The only non-descript month of the year.  Will be a boring month, say like 2021.

[baddie]

First half of the year

January - Dry and Sunny first half, with some sharp frosts but average daytime temperatures. Mild and wet betwen the 12th and 25th, then colder, with a BFTE in the last 3 days. CET 3c

February - Starts with a BFTE, then a week of Atlantic weather until the 11th. Spring-like mid-month, with places reaching 17c on the 18th, followed by another unsettled episode, but drier in the last few days CET 5.5c

March - Starts spring-like with 14c temps on the 2nd and 3rd, but turning very cold, dull and with occasional heavy rain from the 4th to 10th. Warmth and Sunshine returns on the 11th, but turning exceptionally warm and sunny from the 15th to 19th, with temperatures at 24c on the 17th. Thundery breakdowns on the 19th, followed by a three day wet spell. The 23rd-31st is springlike again, with temepratures around 13-17c, with some thunderstorms on Easter. March version of April 2018. CET 8c

April - Exceptionally warm start, with several days of wall-to-wall sunshine and places reaching 26c between the 7th and 9th. Thundery on the 11th and 12th, but warm and humid again fom the 13th to 22nd, with 26c again on the 20th, and severe thunderstorms on the 22nd. Cold and dull, with North Sea cloud from the 23rd onwards, but sunshine returns in the last few days, but temperatues only get to average. You have an April version of June 2023. CET 12c

May - The North sea murk from the end of April will continue into the first half of May, with many dull days, but also many days of wall-to-wall susnhine. Only 10-12c in the murk, and 15-18c in the sunshine. Warmer and wetter weather arrives in the third week, with temepratures above 22c on many days but alsoo many thunderstorms, and a couple washout days. The 20th-23rd will be cooler again., but turning very warm again from the 24th, with temepratures surging to 32c on the Bank Holiday Monday. The 28th-29th will see severe supercell thunderstorms, follwoed by much colder weather in the last two days. CET 12.7c

June - The month will start benign, with a temepratures near 20c and plenty of sunny spells. the 8th-11th will briefly be warm and sunny again, with 27c seen in most areas, but will turn much cooler and wetter from the 12th to the solistice, with some very windy dayss, as well as a couple wahout days. The 21st-23rd will brielfy be warmer and sunnier, with temepratures back ot around 24c. The 24th will turn colder. only 14c, and the rest of the week will look like July 2023, but with more sunshine. CET 14.8c

Edited November 28, 2023 by baddie

[TheOgre]

My predictions for 2024:

January - a chilly month, quite wet with multiple minor snowfalls.

February - a mild and wet month, little of interest.

March - very mild first half, cloudy with mild nights, then colder with snow showers after the equinox.

April - cold and wet to start, warm and sunny middle, cold and wet end.

May - Mostly warm, dry and sunny with a notably hot end.

June - very wet and cool, a stinker month. 

July - poor start then a hot, dry and sunny month with a few thunderstorms later in the month.

August - mixed with an intense heatwave in first half, average second half.

September - mostly warm and dry with intermittent wet spells.

October - average but dry for the first time in years.

November - mild and very wet.

December - mild and wet in first half, cold and dry in second half, notably so in the last few days.

Edited December 7, 2023 by TheOgre

[MattStoke]

January - March 2024: Major blizzard conditions and temperatures well below freezing.
April & May 2024: Lots of warm sunshine mixed with great convective weather.
June - August 2024: Scorching heat with temperatures widely topping 40'C day after day, and some spectacular thunderstorms.
September - December 2024: Absolute snorefest of  wet and windy rubbish, to even things out and because it's autumn which always sucks.

[Freeze]

2 hours ago, MattStoke said:

January - March 2024: Major blizzard conditions and temperatures well below freezing.
April & May 2024: Lots of warm sunshine mixed with great convective weather.
June - August 2024: Scorching heat with temperatures widely topping 40'C day after day, and some spectacular thunderstorms.
September - December 2024: Absolute snorefest of  wet and windy rubbish, to even things out and because it's autumn which always sucks.

What country is this for because it certainly isn't the uk

[baddie]

On 07/12/2023 at 12:10, TheOgre said:

My predictions for 2024:

January - a chilly month, quite wet with multiple minor snowfalls.

February - a mild and wet month, little of interest.

March - very mild first half, cloudy with mild nights, then colder with snow showers after the equinox.

April - cold and wet to start, warm and sunny middle, cold and wet end.

May - Mostly warm, dry and sunny with a notably hot end.

June - very wet and cool, a stinker month. 

July - poor start then a hot, dry and sunny month with a few thunderstorms later in the month.

August - mixed with an intense heatwave in first half, average second half.

September - mostly warm and dry with intermittent wet spells.

October - average but dry for the first time in years.

November - mild and very wet.

December - mild and wet in first half, cold and dry in second half, notably so in the last few days.

You created a combo of :

January 2021
February 2011
March 2005
April 2018
May 2020
June 2012
July 2014
August 2003
September 2006
October 2016
November 2022
December 2014

[baddie]

On 28/11/2023 at 21:21, SummerShower said:

January.  A southerly tracking jet but very wet.  Cold in the North.  Very wet, with cold a mild alternating in the south.  Think Jan 2021.

February.  Very snowy 1st half with an even more southerly tracking jet.  Less cold, but still cold, and dry 2nd half.  Think Feb 47, then 2013.

March.  Mixed, but a notable event at the end of the month, with a late season BFTE pushed northwards by a very early Spanish plume.  Heavy thundersnow on the 24th, but 24C by the 26th.

April.  A decent month.  Think 1st half of April 2020 followed by 2nd half of April 2011.

May.  Unsettled, local convective events, but drier with persistent easterlies in the 2nd half.  Sunny in the west.  Think similar to this year.

June.  1st half similar to 2019 or 2012, 2nd half similar to 2007.  A rather poor month.

July.  The best month of the summer.  A 3 week anticyclone with many 27 to 30C days, with hottest locations varying.  Thundery last 10 days.  Think a slightly lesser version of 2006.

August.  Overall a very wet, but not completely poor month.  1st week like 2004, 2nd week like 2020, so very hot at times, 3rd week like 2014, last 10 days again akin to 2020 with a cold Bank Holiday.

September.  Similar to 2022.  Widespread storms in the 1st week, then non descript.  Warm at the end with 27C on the 30th.

October.  1st few days like 2011 though a degree cooler and missing out on 30C.  The Atlantic will be so warm that a hurricane approaches and becomes extra tropical just 10 miles off lands end.  110mph gusts in the SW on the 18th.  A 13C CET month.  Average rainfall overall.

November.  A cold month, with a first half like 2016 and a northerly shot like 2010 after the 20th.  Coldest since 1993.

December.  The only non-descript month of the year.  Will be a boring month, say like 2021.

My birthday is March 25th, would it be cold and snowy, or warm and sunny, or just average??

[SummerShower]

5 minutes ago, baddie said:

My birthday is March 25th, would it be cold and snowy, or warm and sunny, or just average??

The 25th would probably have a minimum of about -12, but a rapid thaw sets in with 19C in the North Midlands by 430pm on the 25th.  An easterly gale gives way to slack southerlies, and thunderstorms push northwards overnight 25/26th

[baddie]

5 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

The 25th would probably have a minimum of about -12, but a rapid thaw sets in with 19C in the North Midlands by 430pm on the 25th.  An easterly gale gives way to slack southerlies, and thunderstorms push northwards overnight 25/26th

That would be my coldest March morning ever, and giving way to an unseasonably warm day. Surely that cannot happen, or is extremely unlikely

To be more realistic my predicitons for March 25th next year are :
Hazy Sunshine
Warm, high 17c
Thundery Showers overnight

Edited December 8, 2023 by baddie

[Weather-history]

On 28/11/2023 at 20:29, LetItSnow! said:

Becoming a yearly occurence now. These are quite fun. Share your predictions for 2024. They can be as scientific or wild as you like. Mine are purely unscientific and very much a crystal ball kind of affair.

 

Here’s the 2016 prediction thread. Interesting to look back at this now,

 

[Summer8906]

Something like this (a bit of guesswork, a bit of trends in recent years, and a bit of "what haven't we seen for a while").

January - mild and wet on the whole. Rather dull overall with frequent SW-lies, but becoming sunnier and more NW-ly later. The upcoming anticyclonic spell will be followed by the jetstream sinking south sometime around Christmas, like it always seems to. Drier towards the end but less dry than Jan 2023.

February - drier than January and the first drier-than-average month since June. Nonetheless not as dry as Feb 2023 and only marginally drier than average. Fairly westerly with one or two spells of active Atlantic lows but also some spring-like anticyclonic weather. Northerly plunge late in the month. Rather mild. Sunnier than average, in fact a lack of anticyclonic gloom will make it sunnier than Feb 2023.

March - a mostly dry, fine and mild month. First week wet, stormy and rather cool, and end of the month more changeable and cold with N-lies or NE-lies. Absolute max 18C. Sunnier than average.

April - a long spell of warm sunny weather mid-month but also a cold, changeable and rather wet period early in the month and a warm, changeable period at the end. Late snow in the south. Sunnier than average, rainfall about average, slightly warmer than average. Absolute max 24C.

May - a very easterly month. Cool, becoming warm. Wetter than average in the south (but lower than average rain-days, a small number of intense rainfall events contributing to the total) and drier than average in the north, very dry in NW Scotland. Nonetheless some fine sunny days everywhere. Thundery in south.  Warm overall. Absolute max 28C.

June - cool, changeable and rather wet. Northerlies at first, then westerlies. Heat spike late in the month providing the absolute max of 32C, but this is not typical of the month as a whole which mostly fails to reach 20!

July - cloudy and rather dry, particularly in the south. Wetter in the north. Temps close to average by day but mild nights. Significantly better than July 2023, perhaps resembling a mix of July 2016 and 2020 (wetter than the former, drier than the latter). Heat spike sends temps to 36C briefly, the year's highest.

August - a typical changeable modern August, but rather warmer than 2023. Day maxima marginally below average, night minima above. Some slow moving slack lows producing high rainfall totals early in the month, alternating with warmer sunnier days. A period of early autumnal weather around the 20th, but cool and dry at the end. Absolute max 29C in the east but most places fail to get above 27.

September -finally a proper settled, dry September. First half warm and anticyclonic. Second half a bit more westerly but still warm and dry in the south, if cloudier. No intense hot spells though, absolute max 27C early in month. Sunny and very dry in the south, also somewhat warm but not close to record breaking. Cool nights.

October - likewise the run of wet Octobers finally comes to an end. A fine and settled October, starting with a warm southerly period but then becoming more easterly. Max temp 25C early in month but some early frosts mid-month. End of month shows the typical mild, wet and windy spell but overall drier and sunnier than average. Temps close to average.

November - again a drier than average month, but this time mild, cloudy and rather non-descript. Very dry first half with some very mild days early in the month, second half less mild and less dry. It however completes a notably dry autumn.

December - mild and wet through most of the month but one or two short frosty interludes. Not unlike Dec 1994.

 

 

Edited December 9, 2023 by Summer8906

[SunSean]

I don't see a point in predicting every month but I do have a feeling that April & July will be the 2 best months for 2024. I think we are overdue a poor February & June too, in terms of sunshine unfortunately. I do feel that the period of March- October will be overall, very enjoyable & a much better amount of sunshine on offer along with being drier. Here's hoping anyway!

[Summer8906]

38 minutes ago, SunSean said:

I don't see a point in predicting every month but I do have a feeling that April & July will be the 2 best months for 2024. I think we are overdue a poor February & June too, in terms of sunshine unfortunately. I do feel that the period of March- October will be overall, very enjoyable & a much better amount of sunshine on offer along with being drier. Here's hoping anyway!

Not sure about sunshine but I do think Feb might be dry, given we will have likely had 6 consecutive wet months from July-Dec, the deluge can't go on forever! Thinking also of the pattern in previous El Nino years, when the second half of winter was often drier than the first.

I'm thinking of autumn being the driest season, with spring also fairly dry - again because we've had a long run of unsettled autumns, the sequence has to break some time.

Edited December 9, 2023 by Summer8906

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Cloud and rain ...

[raz.org.rain]

2 hours ago, SunSean said:

I don't see a point in predicting every month but I do have a feeling that April & July will be the 2 best months for 2024. I think we are overdue a poor February & June too, in terms of sunshine unfortunately. I do feel that the period of March- October will be overall, very enjoyable & a much better amount of sunshine on offer along with being drier. Here's hoping anyway!

I suspect that most of summer will see some hot and dry weather, perhaps even challenging the record high temperature. That's mostly just based on the fact we'll be going into a strong El Niño state. If spring turns out to be dry I can see some prolonged hot spells throughout 2024.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

April and May, well below average with N/NE winds dominating, best in west Scotland, June warmer first half with E winds, then gradually turning wetter from the west

[Weather Enthusiast91]

January will be fairly quiet and high pressure dominated with anticyclonic gloom for much of time, but there will be a few crisp and sunny days here and there. A January 2017 redux more or less.

February will see some more crisp sunny days but unsettled at times also with a named storm around the 10th. The latter half will be mild on the most part with some springlike days.

March will be largely unsettled but there will be a few springlike days here and there. Overall quite a forgettable month with very little to no interest.

After on uninspiring start to April, spring starts to take hold from mid month onwards with some areas reaching 25 Celsius later on in the month with plenty of sunshine.

May will be settled and fairly warm with a very warm spell around the 24th, followed by scattered thunderstorms.

June will be payback for the warm spells during April and May. Warm and sunny for the first few days of the month, but largely unsettled thereafter with unseasonably low pressure around mid month leading to rain and some strong winds.

July quietens down somewhat though still nothing to shout about. A pretty average summer month overall.

August will be the best month of the summer, with many warm/hot days and scattered thunderstorms and temperatures reaching 35 Celsius during the first half of the month. Quieter during the latter third of the month with temps around or just below average.

September will have a few warm days throughout the month, but with some autumnal days added in too. Temps around average overall, and some chilly nights later on. Particularly unsettled around the 22nd, as often seems to be the case.

The opening days of October will be unseasonably warm leading to 25 Celsius being recorded in a few places. Turns more autumnal thereafter and for the remainder of the month.

November willl be high pressure dominated, leading to below average rainfall. Quiet on the most part with temps and sunshine around average, but will turn colder from around the 26th leading to a cold snap to see out the month.

December will have a mild and unsettled first half followed by a cold but sunny snap around mid month. Fairly quiet after that.

Edited December 9, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[TwisterGirl81]

I just hope 2024 is the sunniest year on record.

Spring and summer to be sunny, warm with a good few overnight thunderstorms and heavy rain to water nature and fill our water butts…that would be ideal for me.

Whatever happens I just hope we don’t have to wait until May to feel some warmth like this year 

5 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Cloud and rain ...

nooo ahh had enough of that this year   

[baddie]

I think the best periods for weather next year will be :

10th March - 20th April
20th May - 31st May
10th August - 31st August
20th September - 15th October

I didnt mention months like June and July, because I think they will be average

[WYorksWeather]

I'm going to go for CET predictions, and talk a bit about what I think will happen each month. Obviously like everyone else it's mostly a stab in the dark with a bit of educated guessing.

January - starts relatively cool with overnight frosts, but nothing exceptional for the time of year. Around the 10th though, a powerful south-westerly airflow sets up, bringing a brief false spring, with temperatures reaching 15C somewhere in the UK for three or four days in a row. The predicted SSW happens in the middle of the month though, and after some more typical fare we see a major drop in temperatures with widespread snow and sub-zero daily means. CET finishes at 4C.

February - almost the opposite pattern to February. The SSW continues to impact our weather for several weeks, with snow continuing to lay on the ground through most of the first half of the month. A brief thaw around the second week, then a renewed cold spell mid-month. Towards the end of the month though, an unseasonably warm airmass comes in, near 15C at 850hPa, with 20C recorded at some point in the last ten days, but the rest of the second half is near-normal. Comes out below average at 4C, same as January.

March - an inauspicious start sees temperatures stay mostly around average, very much feeling like the start of spring though with a distinct lack of overnight frosts in the first half of the month. The second half then turns exceptionally warm, smashing the all time March record with 27C recorded at the end of the month. CET comes out at 8C.

April - the first half of April continues to be warm and sunny, though not as abnormally hot as the end of March. A brief colder spell mid-month sees a few late ground frosts, but then it's back to warm and sunny, with temperatures usually reaching the mid or sometimes high-teens by day, but dropping well into single figures by night under clear skies. A very springlike month, but not overly mild on daily means with clear skies allowing nights to be quite cool even if not frosty. CET is 9C, but absolute max is only 24C, lower than March.

May - After a fairly benign April, May turns out to be a little disappointing. A very wet and windy month, with some early summer storms. A brief heat spike reaches 25C at the start, but other than that temperatures are mostly restricted to the mid-teens, with some relief from the wet weather at the end with a warm and sunny finish, temperatures back into the low 20s. CET finishes at 11.5C.

June - June carries on where May started and kicks it up a gear - a heatwave sees five consecutive days reaching 30C. After that though, it's another fairly dismal period for the rest of the month, temperatures rarely reaching 20C with lots of cloud, wind and rain. CET finishes barely above average at 14.5C, almost entirely due to the warm first week.

July - After a very wet couple of months, July returns closer to the pattern seen in the spring initially, with plenty of dry and warm days, though now with higher temperatures into the mid-20s. A brief disruption to the high pressure brings cooler weather and thunderstorms around the middle of the month, but then a powerful anticyclone sets up over most of mainland Europe, endlessly pumping warm air towards the UK. From the 15th onwards, almost every day sees temperatures reaching the high 20s, and the heat continues to intensify, with low 30s by the 20th, and the last week sees an extraordinary build of heat, with temperatures reaching 35C five times, 37C twice, and one day reaching 39C, making it a close second to 2022's all-time record. An extraordinary 20C CET month.

August - The high pressure begins to break down at the start of the month, focusing the heat more towards southern and eastern Europe, allowing a little more typically British summertime weather with sunshine and showers, though still a relatively benign period with plenty of gaps between low pressure systems. The initial breakdown triggers some dramatic thunderstorms. Temperatures in this period in the high teens or low 20s. This continues through the 20th, but breaking with recent years, the anticyclone returns later in the month, initially bringing ordinary heatwave conditions. A brief cut-off low however gives an extraordinary burst of heat once again, with the UK's latest ever 38C (100F) recorded in the last week of the month around the Bank Holiday, and qualifying as an official heatwave, albeit much shorter than that seen in July. CET finishes at 18C.

September - Again, a bit of a break with recent years. As the kids go back to school, the weather takes a turn for the worse. A depressingly grim month, and at times a cold one, with several brief cold northerly interludes bringing early frosts in the second half of the month. Copious amounts of wind and rain. CET finishes at 13C, solidly below average.

October - Something of a mirror image to September, this is perhaps what September should have been. No exceptional temperatures, but with the exception of the last ten days which turn quite wet and windy, a very benign and anticyclonic month, with plenty of sunshine and temperatures consistently on the mild side, with regular high teens or occasional low 20s. Nearer normal by night under clear skies. CET finishes at 12.5C.

November - November continues where October left off, with two or three named storms in the first half of the month. One of these storms is quite notable, triggering Met Office red warnings, and causing significant damage across central England. Not especially mild though, with the airflow being predominantly westerly or north-westerly. After a wild start, things turn colder and drier in the middle of the month, but too early for anything wintry other than a few snow flurries over the hills and mountains in more northern areas. Then a fairly benign end to the month, temperatures hovering around 10C by day with some ground frosts by night. CET finishes at 6C in stark contrast to October.

December - Again, with a break with recent patterns, the start of December turns unseasonably mild. Several days into the mid-teens, and in the first week the all-time December record is broken, with a reading of 19C. The middle of December returns to the wet and unsettled pattern from November, but generally with mild south-westerlies. However, as Christmas approaches, a strong blocking signal sets us up for a memorable end to the year. Snow falling widely on Christmas Eve, settling consistently and temperatures remaining cold with little thawing except for one or two days. The cold intensifies further on the 28th, and a disruptive area of low pressure runs into the cold air on the 30th and into New Years' Eve, bringing significant snowfall and blizzard conditions. For most of us, perhaps the most memorable Christmas and New Year period in at least a decade. The CET finishes at 5C, with a very cold last week unable to overcome the generally mild conditions earlier on.

I didn't write down numbers for sunshine and rainfall, but subjectively it's a sunnier than average year, with rainfall close to average.

Based on the averages I specified, the annual CET finishes at 125.5/12 = 10.5C, which makes this yet another very warm year, but a fair way from unseating 2022 with a couple of cold months in there. 

Monthly records broken:

• March temperature record - 27C beating 25.6C on 29 March 1968
• December temperature record - 19C beating 18.7C on 28 December 2019

 

 

[Shillitocettwo]

Jan 24 - Abhorrently mild at first wirh mid teen temps that segues to a stormy start to the year and the punchbag for the Atlantic but a few transient snow events with an injection or two of Northerly air. CET 5.6.C

 

Feb 24 - Extremely wet, worse than Feb 2020. Also mild to very mild at CET 7.3.C

 

Mar 24 - Settling down and similar in pattern to 2020 with settled and rather warm end. CET 8.3.C

 

Apr 24 - The first full month of a to be historic early long West European heatwave, very dry and a record 12.1.C CET

 

May 24 - Warmer still with temps regularly exceeding 30.C and an off the charts CET of 19.3.C! 

 

June 2024 - The peak of the precocious heatwave Spring/Summer with maximum solar insolation pushing temperatures of exceeding 40.C in UK (peaking at 43.C) and even worse on the Continent with a 50.C in Europe and 46.C in Germany! Bone dry and a staggering CET of 23.1.C

 

July 2024 - After the first few days a month long tussle between further feeds of heat from a baking continent and the Atlantic. Not as extreme but only a slither off the monthly record at 19.6.C CET

 

August 2024 - Summer spectacularly down the pan now with a miserable run of depressions off the Atlantic and a washout. CET 15.9.C managing the first below average one for ages.

 

September 2024 - Benign, at times autumnal at times Indian Summer and warmer than August at 16.2.C

 

October 2024- The heat which never left the Continent returns on regular Spanish plumes giving an outrageous 16.3.C creating a mad warming up record Aug, Sep, Oct run and destroying the previous record.

 

November 2024 - Smashing records early doors with 26.1.C recorded on 3rd, however a cold spell late month with snow dragging it out of record month territory at 9.5.C

 

December 2024 - After such a shocking year highlighting climate change, December will be a month of High pressure dominance, frosts, fog and a very average 4.5.C

[Met.]

January - mild and wet

February - mild and wet

March - mild and dry

April - mild and dry then a bit wetter and average

May - sunny but average temps and dry

June - drier but cloudier than average and a bit milder than  average

July - cloudier and a bit milder than average with average rain

August - one of the hottest on record with near average rain from thunderstorms

September - warmer than average and very dry

October - mild and dry

November - mild and dry

December - mild and dry

Every month milder than average

[Addicks Fan 1981]

I'd say the nearest analogue match to next year is 2016 for a number of reasons with la niña developing after el niño and a west QBO developing too.  The only difference is that solar activity is notably higher so I will see if I am near enough on the money, think 2019 could be in with a shout too if the positive IOD continues.     

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

I'd say the nearest analogue match to next year is 2016 for a number of reasons with la niña developing after el niño and a west QBO developing too.  The only difference is that solar activity is notably higher so I will see if I am near enough on the money, think 2019 could be in with a shout too if the positive IOD continues.     

Can't say prospect of either year enthuses me much. 2016 brought a late Spring, indifferent summer, Autumn was quite varied though.

2019 a very mild winter, no thank you.. and just a mild very wet year all round with heat spike in July.

 

Edited December 17, 2023 by damianslaw