Predictions for 2024

[B87]

1 hour ago, baddie said:

Funny thing is that we havent had an actual dire August since 2010 (2008 for some others), but we are due another very good one. I know every August from 2011 onwards had some saving grace (2014 being rather sunny, 2021 being dry etc.)

We have had 3 of the 4 dullest Augusts on record since 2008. August 2021 was atrocious.

1954, 2021, 2008, 2010

[In Absence of True Seasons]

On 14/01/2024 at 09:11, Summer8906 said:

Certainly much of this seems to be very typical for contemporary years, particularly the fine becoming unsettled Sep and the end-of-Nov cold spell which is becoming quite a recent feature!

A stereotypical contemporary year to me would be:

Jan - wet and somewhat mild overall but one dry spell with average temps

Feb - zonal, very mild, cloudy, perhaps dry, perhaps wet

March - zonal, wet and dull becoming fine

April - mostly fine, dry and sunny

May - often easterly, mixed, becoming dull and wet at the end

June - mix of dull/wet and warm/sunny. One 34c heat spike

July - cloudy, very westerly, dry in south, wet in north, cool days, mild nights, brief 36c heat spike

August - dull and wet with one brief 34c heat spike

Sep - fine sunny first half then becoming dull and wet

Oct - dull, wet, very mild

Nov - dull, wet, very mild but cold end

Dec - cold start then mostly dull, wet and very mild

Agree with most of this, although your summer predictions are a tad pessimistic IMO! This would be basically another 2023 style summe (cloudy, wet and cool) but without the fantastic June! 

I highly doubt that high-summer will be as bad as 2023 was...the bar is very, very low. 

Nothing to say why we won't have a summer more akin to 2022 or 2018... Even a 2020 would be great in my books given the incredible Spring we had that year. In my area, high summer that year wasn't awful, either. 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

6 hours ago, B87 said:

We have had 3 of the 4 dullest Augusts on record since 2008. August 2021 was atrocious.

1954, 2021, 2008, 2010

Yeah August 2021 was abysmal, I'm so fortunate that I escaped nearly 2 thirds of that month by being at my grandparent's apartment in South of Spain. 

Augusts of recent times do tend to be really dull, which is a shame because they're also often the warmest summer month. 2022 is one of the only Augusts in recent memory that I'd call a properly good month, summer-weather wise. Do we know why this is, meteorologically? Stats seem to show that climate change is making the UK warmer on average and sunnier on average, but I'm not sure if this is just condensed to certain months? So for instance, Septembers and Aprils becoming warmer and sunnier, but Augusts becoming warmer and duller? 

Edited January 15 by In Absence of True Seasons

[B87]

4 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Yeah August 2021 was abysmal, I'm so fortunate that I escaped nearly 2 thirds of that month by being at my grandparent's apartment in South of Spain. 

Augusts of recent times do tend to be really dull, which is a shame because they're also often the warmest summer month. 2022 is one of the only Augusts in recent memory that I'd call a properly good month, summer-weather wise. Do we know why this is, meteorologically? Stats seem to show that climate change is making the UK warmer on average and sunnier on average, but I'm not sure if this is just condensed to certain months? So for instance, Septembers and Aprils becoming warmer and sunnier, but Augusts becoming warmer and duller? 

The 91-20 averages for April and August here are 176 and 203 hours. 

If you look at the last 10 years, it's 191 hours in April and 199 in August!

October sunshine also seems to have collapsed. It feels like we often see Octobers with below 100 hours of sun in recent times.

[baddie]

5 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Yeah August 2021 was abysmal, I'm so fortunate that I escaped nearly 2 thirds of that month by being at my grandparent's apartment in South of Spain. 

Augusts of recent times do tend to be really dull, which is a shame because they're also often the warmest summer month. 2022 is one of the only Augusts in recent memory that I'd call a properly good month, summer-weather wise. Do we know why this is, meteorologically? Stats seem to show that climate change is making the UK warmer on average and sunnier on average, but I'm not sure if this is just condensed to certain months? So for instance, Septembers and Aprils becoming warmer and sunnier, but Augusts becoming warmer and duller? 

Unlike awful months like June 2012, July 2023, August 2008 etc, August 2021 was at least a dry month. There were just so many average Augusts, that we are due both an August 1912 and an August 1995 repeat

August 2013, 2016 and 2019 were "good" Augusts in my opinion. I wouldnt really ask for more than a August 2016 repeat if it comes after a hot july

The same went for May. Betwween 2002 and 2017 inclusive, there were so many mediocre Mays, and never a "classic" one (2016 was probs the best of them), though we had a few dire ones like 2007 and 2015

Edited January 15 by baddie

[baddie]

1 hour ago, B87 said:

The 91-20 averages for April and August here are 176 and 203 hours. 

If you look at the last 10 years, it's 191 hours in April and 199 in August!

October sunshine also seems to have collapsed. It feels like we often see Octobers with below 100 hours of sun in recent times.

October 2022 was my 3rd sunniest on record, and October 2018 was my 4th sunniest. We get either very sunny Octobers or below-par Octobers. The last "average" October for sunshine was 2016, with 104 hours

[raz.org.rain]

Any thoughts on how March, April and May will play out? Still a little far off to give any reliable forecasts, but should be interesting to know what the expected trends are.

[LetItSnow!]

6 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Yeah August 2021 was abysmal, I'm so fortunate that I escaped nearly 2 thirds of that month by being at my grandparent's apartment in South of Spain. 

Augusts of recent times do tend to be really dull, which is a shame because they're also often the warmest summer month. 2022 is one of the only Augusts in recent memory that I'd call a properly good month, summer-weather wise. Do we know why this is, meteorologically? Stats seem to show that climate change is making the UK warmer on average and sunnier on average, but I'm not sure if this is just condensed to certain months? So for instance, Septembers and Aprils becoming warmer and sunnier, but Augusts becoming warmer and duller? 

I remember August 2021 so well. One of the stranger summer months of my lifetime. Persistently cloudy with very cool maxima. I think further north it was quite good because high pressure tended to keep Scotland away from the cloud and overall it was a classic summer up there. Down here I seem to remember the month having no very warm days, highest max was only around 24-25C and many days were between 18-21C but with quite mild nights. Never felt humid. Felt like late-September most of the time. Around the Bank Holiday we had a push of very cool air that gave daytime highs in the mid-teens and lots of drizzle. Felt quite surreal and more like November. The weather did a complete u-turn and then we had the heatwave in early September. Five Septembers in a row now we've seen warm to hot conditions in the first-half. I wonder if September 2024 will break this run.

[LetItSnow!]

I've asked AI to predict the rest of the year and this is what it gave me. I smoothed out some of the unrealistic parts and this is what it says for 2024. Bear in mind it got 2022's forecast more correct than any of us 

February: Near normal temperatures but sunny and dry away from the far north,. Mild start then a notable cold spell from the N/NE around the 7th which is implied to be severe due to the effect on the month's mean. Widespread lows between -5C and -10C. The cold spell ends and turns mild and even exceptionally mild with 17C in parts on the 18th but then the rest of the month sees temperatures return close to normal. Gener

March: A cold and rather stormy first-half but milder in the final two weeks. Wet, particularly in the south, but overall sunny. Another cold spell, this time an Artic blast, sends polar winds southward on the 4th though the AI specifies it's not overly snowy and mostly dry but with some very cold minima. Then a cold, zonal pattern with some stormy conditions around mid-month. High pressure and a southerly airflow provide the warmest day of the month on the 24th with 18-19C recorded across the south of England. Implies cloudier and rainer conditions further north overtop the high.

April: Warm and sunny. A cool start with local frost on the 1st but turning warmer. Very warm mid-month with high pressure dominating the weather and temperatures into the low to mid-20s but cool by night. Unsettled weather early and late means that rainfall was close to normal though and rather wet in the north. Sunshine generally rather above normal.

May: Warm and sunny. Some changeable and cool weather early on but quickly turning warm and ending hot with temperatures into the upper 20s. Generally dry though parts of Scotland were rather wet. A calm month with little in the way of wind. Thunder was limited but the hot spell at month's end did provide some thunderstorms in the south.

June: Warm, fairly dry and very sunny. Once again, changeable early on though with temperatures near-normal, then turning dry in the second half with most days being sunny. Hot towards month end with temperatures into the low 30s. A calm month and with a notable absence of thunder.

July: The hottest, driest and sunniest July on record with an intense spell of hot weather in the second half. A warm start with high pressure tending to centre over and to our west with warm days and comfortable nights but shifting to a hotter position into week two. On the 15th began a two week spell where the temperature reached 32C somewhere in the UK, culminating in the upper 30s being reached on the 25th. This was a dry heat that built on several weeks instead of a heat spike. There was very little in the way of wind or thunder though eastern coastal regions suffered with low cloud and fog at times and it wasn't as hot there. Rainless across parts of southern and eastern England.

August: Rather warm but changeable at times. A breakdown of July's heat gave some changeable but humid weather early on and gave some much needed rainfall. There was another heatwave around mid-August but nowhere near the length and intensity and gave temperatures into the upper 20s/low 30s. Changeable again until the rest of the month but with no great windstorms or deluges and parts of southern England had another dry month, though not to the extent of July.

September: Rather cool, dull and changeable; wet in the north but rather slightly on the dry side in the south. The summer doesn't continue. A couple autumnal gales thrown in for good measure.

October: Cold and rather dry but changeable. 

November: Near normal temperatures but very dull and quite wet.

December: Cold, very dry and very dull but hinted at a snowy episode around Christmas. Very anticyclonic.

Overall, what do I think of a year like that? Actually, I think it would be quite good! The summer is long with frequent spells of sunny weather and very few cool spells but doesn't linger into the autumn and a seasonably cold December follows too. It isn't too dissimilar a year to 2003 which concentrated its warmth in the spring and summer whilst the other months of the year were relatively cooler. The July spell sounds similar to August 2003 too except longer. Would you take a year like this? Funnily enough with the 2003 comparisons the January we're having at the moment isn't too dissimilar, cold and exceptional mild contrasting eachother.

[LetItSnow!]

Well, hopes for a cold winter came to zilch! I'm updating my predictions for fun.

March 2024: A very standard post '80s March with a couple glancing blows from the north-west that deliver cold rain to 95% of the country, otherwise unsettled. Duller, wetter and milder than average but with one spell of quite nice weather that lasts a couple days and sees us reach between 17-20C, but mostly unsettled.

April 2024: Very warm, very dry and very sunny. A classic April. Our first dry month since June. Probably a spell of very warm weather at least once or twice during the month that gets us into the mid-twenties but not to record levels. 

May 2024: The dry weather turns out to be a blip and overall it turns out to be a very wet month with frequent periods of low pressure, however, the nights are often mild and there are some spells of plume-ey southerlies, so the month ends up rather warm despite unexceptional maxima. A very thundery month in places with flash floods in the news at times. Sunshine I'd imagine would be rather below normal bar some sheltered places.

June 2024: A very boring month that's overall dull and wet but not exceptionally so, just very often changeable and gloomy. It ends up being our first month to below the 1961-1990 average since December 2022 but just fractionally.

July 2024: To the surprise of everyone who thought that July 2023 was a dud and that it would be unlikely to get two poor Julys in a row in the current era, it does exactly that and is cool and unsettled, though not overly wet. It ends up being another month in a row to be below the 1961-1990 average and ends up being the coolest July since 2012 as we sneakily manoeuvre a way to avoid blistering heat across the continent and end up with a lot of northerly airstreams, but it ends up a lot sunnier and drier than July 2023 so people don't end up complaining too much. The warmest spell of the month ends up being very tame and only in the region of 27-31C.

August 2024: It ends up being the poorest of the summer months and ends up far wetter and duller than normal and gives shades of August 2008, though the dullness stops the C.E.T. from being exceptionally below normal. We end up with the coolest summer since 2011 while Spain is left as cinders like with each year since 2015.

September 2024: Quite dreary, but not overly wet and with temperatures close to normal, just a lot of anticylonic gloom.

October 2024: Quite fine and dry and our first dry October in six years. Temperatures close to normal but hiding some variation between some warm days and cold nights at times. Quite sunny but further spells of anticyclonic gloom at times. Mostly quiet but then out of nowhere we get a named storm that ends up blowing a lot the leaves off the trees, annoying leaf spotters.

November 2024: Fairly chilly, especially for modern times. Quite a lot of high pressure so overall quite dry, but stormy spells at times. Mostly quite dull. High pressure dominated and we get some tame easterlies that everyone wishes had occured a month later. Our first drier than average season since 2022.

December 2024: A seasonably cold December with a fair bit of blocking. The fourth drier than average month in a row. High pressure does lift/retrogress enough to allow for at least one easterly spell so not completely without snow. It ends up fulfilling the promise that the first half December 2022 that failed to follow with. 

2024 as a whole: The year tricks everyone into thinking that another 11C year is set in stone but ends up taking a 1998/2007 style pattern and delivers a poor summer and cooler second half to the year. It still ends up as a warmer than average year but is our coolest year since either 2021 or 2013 - not exactly hard to do. January through August takes us on course for another very wet year but a dry end means that rainfall ends up unexceptionally above normal overall.

Overall: A warm, wet and dull spring - a cool, wet and dull summer and dry and dull autumn with near-normal temperatures. Most notably, a dull year.

Edited February 20 by LetItSnow!

[lassie23]

AI came up with this: A great beast will invade from the east turning day into night, and fire will reign before an eternal winter will bringeth endless darkness and barren landscapes to a lifeless Earth.  I think my AI thinks it's Nostradamus

[Earthshine]

January: Highest UK January temperature on record.  19.9C, exceeding the Feb 1998 temperature of 19.7, before that was broken by the ludicrous 21.2C in February 2019.

February: Warmest winter CET day on record at 13.7C (warmer than the average for June 2013).

March: Beginning cool before high pressure builds in around the 20th.  Winds turn southerly for a time with a mean of 7.8C overall (compared to 7.9C for February).  A max of 21C recorded in London on the 23rd.

April: Bog standard month with a remarkable heat spike on the 30th.  29.9C recorded in London.

May: An exceptionally mild yet wet month.  A 14C CET, boosted by overnight temperatures.  Very cloudy with a long fetch SW stream.  

June: Begins in the same vein of May before high pressure builds to the west.  Turns cooler but sunnier, a dry month overall.  Turns hot in the final week as the Iberian high builds in, boosting the CET to 15.8C.  A maximum temperature of 30C is recorded on the 28th. 

July: Wow.  The Iberian high evolves into a larger Euro high.  Initially very warm and dry with temperatures exceeding 30C.  The high moves westwards and stretches up towards Scandinavia.  An extremely unusual pattern, resembling an amplified version of September 2023, see winds drawn from the African continent for 7 days straight.  Temperatures soar across Europe, with temperatures exceeding 50C in Italy.  Eastern parts of the UK see two consecutive 40C days.  CET is a bonkers 21.2C.  

August: High pressure moves northwards, dragging in a cooler SE feed.  Temperatures drop to high twenties across the UK, although Northern Ireland records a new all time maximum of 34C, almost 3C above the 2021 record.  Winds finally turn westerly in the final week.  Overall CET 18.3C.

September. SW winds prevail.  Legacy warmth in the Bay of Biscay keeps temperatures elevated until winds finally turn NW.  A remarkable 15C drop in temperatures over 24 hours is recorded across much of the UK.

October: Very cool.  A CET of 9C with frequent sunny spells.  Snowfall across much of Scotland on the 29th.

November: Winds turn back SW and the CET rises to 9.2C, ahead of October.  

December:  Cold.  High pressure builds to the north and strong NE winds originating deep in Siberia drag in cold air very quickly before it can be modified substantially.  CET of 1.7C

 

What a fantasy eh? 

[Snowyowl9]

 lassie23

Not referring to your post..but I was just looking at something and it was done by A.I. which surprise suprise got it wrong..

AI is clueless.

Edited February 21 by Snowyowl9

[lassie23]

 Snowyowl9 I have used it to write articles and it writes complete junk lol

[reef]

 Earthshine A summer 0.7C warmer than 1976 and 1.0C warmer than 2018 would be a bit alarming!

[Scorcher]

 Earthshine I will take that summer in a heartbeat but can we also have a 2018/2020 style May beforehand? . Oh and April 2020/2011 will do as well.

[baddie]

 Earthshine Woahhhh, a 21 CET summer month. Thats 1.5c warmer than the already exceptional July 2006

[raz.org.rain]

 baddie if you believe the LRFs for summer, it certainly seems like a possibility. But being honest, long range forecasts are about as useful as an igloo in Saudi Arabia lately.

[Earthshine]

 baddie I feel it will happen sometimes.  July 2006 was 19.8C, but that was 18 years ago now...

[mcfcfan2008]

Weather 2024 what i want happening

• March: Mostly Unsettled in the week of 4th-10th Becoming Drier on the 11th and 12th with a temp of 15C then Dull on the 13th foggy on the 14th then Rainy on the 15th and 16th Becoming Sunny again on the 17th,18th and 19th the becoming wet on the 20th and 21st before coming dry on the 22nd but cloudy and cooler with a temp of 12C then on the 23rd Rain and then sunny from the 24th to 30th with max daytime temp of 17C but 18C on the 25th and 26th and then Showery on the 31st but becoming sunnier later in the day 
• April: A very warm start with mostly sunny days 1st Cloudy 2nd-5th  with temperatures of 16C Sunny A thunderstorm on the 6th and the night of the 6th then Sunny again on the 7th and 8th but cloudy on the 9th with temperatures of 15C over the 3 days and then sunny from the 10th to the 14th with a max temp of 15C , with low pressure arriving from the 15th, the being wet dull and miserable on the 16th but a ridge of high pressure arriving on the 17th then the 18th becoming very wet and unsettled before turning to showers again on the 19th and becoming wet o the 20th with a thunderstorm or 2 overnight then on the 21st very muggy and humid with a temp of about 17C. Then wet on the 22nd,23rd and 24th with highs of only 14C  but sunny on the 25th but a cold day with a high of 11C then cloudy on the 26th before persistent heavy rain arrives on the 27th then 28th drizzly but becoming sunnier on the 29th and 30th.
• May: A very hot and pleasant month with plenty of sunshine with a high tempoerature of 27C possibly 28C, Wet on the 1st and 2nd but becoming sunny from the 3rd to the 7th with a high of 19C but becoming wet on the 8th and 9th Again with a high of 15C maybe 16C. then becoming excepionally sunny every day from the 10th to the 22nd with a temp of 20C on the 10th to the 14th then getting very hot on the 15th and 16th with a high of 24C but becoming exceptionally hot and a potential for heatwave on the 17th to the 21st with 28C. Becoming very cloudy on the 23rd the becoming sunny again for the remainder of the month with highs of 25C on the 24th,25th,26th,27th and 28th then highs of 23C On the 29th 30th and 31st. 
• June: A dry weekend of the 1st 2nd and 3rd but becoming wet and unsettled from the 4th with rain,showers on the 5th and then persistent heavy rain on the 6th and 7th and thunderstorms on the 8th before turning unsettled again on the 9th and 10th then more thunderstorms on the 11th and 12th before turning wet and windy again on the 13th then a ridge of high pressure over the weekend of 14th 15th and 16th with a mostly cloudy week of the 17th-21st with highs of around about 19C then becoming hot on the 22nd until the 29th with highs of 30C in the daytime and then cloudy on the 30th 
• July: 1st-7th Mixture of sunny spells and heavy showers with daytime highs of around 21-23C 8th to 15th A Very wet start on the 8th and 9th with heavy rain on the 9th and 10th and then 11th and 12th Scattered showers before Turning sunny on the 13th and lasting up until the 28th with very pleasant days and very warm nights with daytime highs of over 30C and nightime highs of 18C-21C. Becoming Unsettled on the 29th with Thunderstorms and flash flooding in place with heavy rain aswell these lasting into the 30th but clearing by late morning of the 30th bringing sunny conditions and then becoming wet again on the 31st 
• August: 1st a very wet and unpleasant day with spells of heavy rain again then becoming sunny again on the 2nd for most of the month with highs of 25C to 32C and a heatwave over the 5th 6th 7th and 16th 17th 18th and 22nd 23rd 24th and 25th with very sunny conditions and little cloud cover but becoming unsettled for a while from the 26th with showery conditions then cloudy on the 27th before coming heavy rain on the 28th and 29th with thunderstorms overnight on the 28th and then becoming sunnier again on the 30th before turning wet again on the 31st 
• September:1st to 10th Mostly unsettled conditions but with highs of still around 20C a very harsh thunderstorm to take place on the 6th and 7th before showers return on the 8th and 9th and 10th but becoming drier later on the 10th and lasting until around the 24th or 25th with a high of 19C on the 11th and 12th and a heatwave returning on the 13th 14th 15th with more hot spells and highs of 25C then becoming cooler on the 16th and 17th before returning to Hot weather on the 18th 19th 20th and 21st with a high of around 26C then becoming cooler but dr on the 22nd and 23rd with highs of around 18-21C then becoming wet on the 26th with thunderstorms then showers on the 27th Clloudy on the 28th then Sun lon the 29th and 30th 
• October 1st to 4th Mostly Thundery conditions expected with highs of 18C then becoming sunny again from the 5th to the 9th before unsettled weather returns on the 10th 11th 12th 13th then cold on the 14th with highs of only 14C then becoming sunny again on the 18th this lasting until the 30th with a thunderstorm and shower on the 23/24/25th. On the 31st a Thunderstorm and heavy rain to take place
• November A very unsettled month ahead with persistent rain approaching on the 1st and 2nd before dry weather returns on the 3rd then unsettled from the 4th for at least 2 weeks with a warm day on the 10th with a high of 16C then becoming wet  on the 18th 19th 20th but drier on the 21st 22nd and 23rd then showers on the 24th and 25th then sunny again from the 26th to the 30th with highs of 12-14C so still fairly mild and a winter thunderstorm overnight on the 30th into the 1st of Dec
• December a very wet first half of the month ahead with wet days from the 3rd until the 15th but drier on the 10th and mild days with highs of 12C before turning sunnier from the 16th with highs of 8C then drier for most of the month with snow on Boxing Day (26th) then cold on the 27th 28th and 29th then mild on the 30th before A New years Eve Thunderstorm but becoming drier by later on 

[mcfcfan2008]

 Scorcher I want a very nice and sunny May because down my way multiple events happen and Also May is normally an exceptionally sunny month i have pirate festival weekend of 4th-6th then Devons Big weekend 10th-12th then Beach Party all weekend 17th 18th 19th then going away late may 24th to 1st June

 

[Derecho]

On 13/12/2023 at 17:16, Shillitocettwo said:

Jan 24 - Abhorrently mild at first wirh mid teen temps that segues to a stormy start to the year and the punchbag for the Atlantic but a few transient snow events with an injection or two of Northerly air. CET 5.6.C

 

Feb 24 - Extremely wet, worse than Feb 2020. Also mild to very mild at CET 7.3.C

 

Mar 24 - Settling down and similar in pattern to 2020 with settled and rather warm end. CET 8.3.C

 

Apr 24 - The first full month of a to be historic early long West European heatwave, very dry and a record 12.1.C CET

 

May 24 - Warmer still with temps regularly exceeding 30.C and an off the charts CET of 19.3.C! 

 

June 2024 - The peak of the precocious heatwave Spring/Summer with maximum solar insolation pushing temperatures of exceeding 40.C in UK (peaking at 43.C) and even worse on the Continent with a 50.C in Europe and 46.C in Germany! Bone dry and a staggering CET of 23.1.C

 

July 2024 - After the first few days a month long tussle between further feeds of heat from a baking continent and the Atlantic. Not as extreme but only a slither off the monthly record at 19.6.C CET

 

August 2024 - Summer spectacularly down the pan now with a miserable run of depressions off the Atlantic and a washout. CET 15.9.C managing the first below average one for ages.

 

September 2024 - Benign, at times autumnal at times Indian Summer and warmer than August at 16.2.C

 

October 2024- The heat which never left the Continent returns on regular Spanish plumes giving an outrageous 16.3.C creating a mad warming up record Aug, Sep, Oct run and destroying the previous record.

 

November 2024 - Smashing records early doors with 26.1.C recorded on 3rd, however a cold spell late month with snow dragging it out of record month territory at 9.5.C

 

December 2024 - After such a shocking year highlighting climate change, December will be a month of High pressure dominance, frosts, fog and a very average 4.5.C

This has been the most accurate forecast so far....

[B87]

 mcfcfan2008 I hope we don't have to wait until 10th May to get the first 20c day of the year. That would be even later than last spring!

[lassie23]

Thunder 23rd July at 4.30 pm and 22 seconds

[raz.org.rain]

 B87 I reckon we'll see the first 20°c by the end of March