Predictions for 2024

[raz.org.rain]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, especially in Jan/Feb and Nov/Dec

I can't imagine the breakdown if both January and February turned out to be record mild months.

[baddie]

On 24/12/2023 at 16:36, John S2 said:

The main concern I have about 2024 is a likely flip from El Nino to La Nina. If a strong transition between these states coincides with summer then this could be bad news. The following is a guess based on the above, possible SSW early January, plus other factors:

Significant cold mid-Jan to mid-Feb. Notable heatwaves second half of March plus mid-May. Pressure falls last week of May heralding an unsettled June. July & August nothing special but nowhere near as bad as July 2023, possible brief July 2022 type plume but less exceptional. Decent September - much more anticyclonic than the disappointing Septembers of 2022 & 2023.

I think you predicted a 2012 redux, but without the horrible July. No thanks!!!!

Edited December 25, 2023 by baddie

[lassie23]

Man u to need a new manager

[Summer8906]

On 18/12/2023 at 13:45, baddie said:

The best year would be :

Janaury-March 2012
April-June 2020
July-September 2019
Ocotber-December 2010
 

A number of so-so months there though: June 2020 and July-Aug 2019.

Would probably go with, following similar rules, two of yours but would make different choices for the mid-year period:

Jan-Mar 2012 (If historic years are allowed, then 1929, without a doubt).

April-June 1995

July-Sep 1989

October-December 2010

Edited December 26, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

13 hours ago, baddie said:

I think you predicted a 2012 redux, but without the horrible July. No thanks!!!!

Doesn't sound terrible, except for the June. April, October, November and December are of course unstated.

[Summer8906]

On 20/12/2023 at 15:54, baddie said:

My mind is telling me that the middle of Feburary could challenge Feb 2019s record, and with 10 days of wall-to-wall sunshine, then a Mini BFTE to end the month

Now that would be interesting, 21C followed by a BFTE in the same month. Would probably contend for most interesting Feb on record and would be a perfect antidote to the drab, boring weather of 2023.

While there is a possible hint of cold, I'm kind of thinking Jan will be rather similar to the other "4" years 1984, 1994 and 2004, which to me have quite strong similarities to each other. All Atlantic-driven but all with cold air coming in at times. Rather (not very) mild and potentially very wet in the south but also a chance of some temporary, transient snow cover in the south and perhaps heavy and persistent snow further north. The southerly tracking lows and occasional appearance of cold air are influencing my view here, but perhaps I'm taking current model output too literally or displaying some kind of semi-conscious bias on "4" years ("All Januaries ending in '4' are wet, and most are mild but not silly mild...")

Feb then drier and less mild with one dry cold spell, perhaps a colder and less dry version of Feb 2023.

 

Edited December 26, 2023 by Summer8906

[baddie]

 

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

Now that would be interesting, 21C followed by a BFTE in the same month. Would probably contend for most interesting Feb on record and would be a perfect antidote to the drab, boring weather of 2023.

While there is a possible hint of cold, I'm kind of thinking Jan will be rather similar to the other "4" years 1984, 1994 and 2004, which to me have quite strong similarities to each other. All Atlantic-driven but all with cold air coming in at times. Rather (not very) mild and potentially very wet in the south but also a chance of some temporary, transient snow cover in the south and perhaps heavy and persistent snow further north. The southerly tracking lows and occasional appearance of cold air are influencing my view here, but perhaps I'm taking current model output too literally or displaying some kind of semi-conscious bias on "4" years ("All Januaries ending in '4' are wet, and most are mild but not silly mild...")

Feb then drier and less mild with one dry cold spell, perhaps a colder and less dry version of Feb 2023.

 

I would love a whole March similar to the first 20 days of March 2012 - Very anticyclonic, with chilly and misty mornings and brighter days, and the occasional 18c. Something we wished October gave us

Edited December 26, 2023 by baddie

[Summer8906]

3 minutes ago, baddie said:

 

I would love a whole March similar to the first 20 days of March 2012 - Very anticyclonic, with chilly and misty mornings and brighter days, and the occasional 18c. Something we wished October gave us

My gut feeling is for a fine first half of March, simply because we've had several years recently when March started poor and became better. It's been a good while now (2015) since the last fine start to March.

[baddie]

3 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

My gut feeling is for a fine first half of March, simply because we've had several years recently when March started poor and became better. It's been a good while now (2015) since the last fine start to March.

I find the first week of March is always dominated by North Sea cloud, bringing in boring 5c temperatures, drizzle and no sunshine at all. This happened in the last 3 Marches, and in 2011 and 2018

[Summer8906]

Just now, baddie said:

I find the first week of March is always dominated by North Sea cloud, bringing in boring 5c temperatures, drizzle and no sunshine at all. This happened in the last 3 Marches, and in 2011 and 2018

Does seem to have been the case recently that March has started either dull and bleak or wet and windy (the latter in 2020, 2019 and 2017). Been a while since a settled first half of March but they happened quite frequently before that. March 2014 was a very good example.

[baddie]

6 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Does seem to have been the case recently that March has started either dull and bleak or wet and windy (the latter in 2020, 2019 and 2017). Been a while since a settled first half of March but they happened quite frequently before that. March 2014 was a very good example.

March 2012 also a good one, except for a cold and wet day on the 4th. March 2013 was a forgotten one (for obvious reasons), but mostly sunny and average temperatures in the first 5 days

For some weird reason, the end of April is always cold, dull and showery

Edited December 26, 2023 by baddie

[Summer8906]

4 minutes ago, baddie said:

March 2012 also a good one, except for a cold and wet day on the 4th. March 2013 was a forgotten one (for obvious reasons), but mostly sunny and average temperatures in the first 5 days

I remember the forgotten start to March 2013. Here I think it started cold but it became warm and one day, the first Monday was very warm, perhaps 17C in places. It then suddenly turned cold and wet and the rest is history.

[baddie]

10 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Does seem to have been the case recently that March has started either dull and bleak or wet and windy (the latter in 2020, 2019 and 2017). Been a while since a settled first half of March but they happened quite frequently before that. March 2014 was a very good example.

its not only March, but theres this pattern that happens in April too. Mixed first two weeks, Warm and Sunny third week, Cloudy and Unsettled final week. Same thing for May, where the first two weeks are often changeable, then much more settled, and warm around the Bank Holiday

[stewfox]

Luton stay up . A cold snowy jan Feb March.  Warm spring lovely summer ,heat and sun. Average autumn bit of rain . Cold snowy winter.

All roads  clear and I don't breakdown on Christmas day on M40 next year

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

On 25/12/2023 at 19:01, al78 said:

This year wasn't a typical English summer. You don't get two record or near breaking months in a typical summer. A typical English summer has brief periods of warm and sunny weather followed by cooler wetter conditions, not locked in hot and dry for a month then a massive flip to dull and wet for a month.

ENSO's effect on European weather is weak so other factors will likely dominate most of the time.

According to stats summer 2023 was pretty average actually, above average in terms of rain and sunshine with the overall CET for the summer being  the same or similar to summer 1997, we had our Indian summer as well too.    El niño definitely disrupted our jet stream for the summer of this year and as far as I'm concerned el niño often brings extremes of heat in summer, but also wetness too.   

[B87]

My predictions for 2024. A brief description and then avg max/min, rainfall, sun hours.

January - a topsy-turvy month with a cold spell sandwiched between a mild start and end. Overall average temperatures, but wet and dull. 9c/3c, 70mm, 40 hrs

February - starting cold, possibly with some settling snow, but then turning mild, dry and sunny from the 2nd week. 10/2c, 25mm, 100 hrs

March - a fairly average month. Much sunnier and drier than March 2023. The first 20c of the year late in the month. 12c/4c, 35mm, 120 hrs

April - month of 2 halves with a cool and dull (but dry) first half, followed by a very warm, very dry and sunny 2nd half. 16c/6c, 20mm, 180 hrs

May - a warm, sunny and thundery month. The first widespread severe thunderstorms of the year. 20c/10c, 70mm, 230 hrs

June - a changeable month with a mix of thundery spells and short heat bursts bringing the first 32c of the year. 22c/13c, 50mm, 190 hrs

July - a sunny and dry month with average temperatures. A week of 30c days mid-month. 24c/15c, 25mm, 240 hrs

August - briefly unsettled to start, before high pressure dominates. The hottest month of the year with several days surpassing 35c. 26c/16c, 30mm, 280 hrs

September - starts where August left off, no precipitation until 20th. The final 10 days are very thundery. 22c/12c, 60mm, 190 hrs

October - a fairly standard October with some warm sunny days and cool nights, followed by wet and stormy conditions later. 17c/8c, 70mm, 110 hrs

November - warm in the first week, with temperatures reaching 20c. After that, a gradual descent into colder conditions but dry. 11c/4c, 40mm, 80 hrs

December - A cool, dry and sunny month. Mild in the final week with 17c on New Year's Eve. 7c/2c, 30mm, 70 hrs

 

[cheeky_monkey]

On 26/12/2023 at 06:31, stewfox said:

Luton stay up . A cold snowy jan Feb March.  Warm spring lovely summer ,heat and sun. Average autumn bit of rain . Cold snowy winter.

All roads  clear and I don't breakdown on Christmas day on M40 next year

 

i remember breaking down on the M40 in 2014 and being stood there like that ..what made it worse it was a brand new car that i had picked up the day before with 200 miles on the clock.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

2 hours ago, B87 said:

My predictions for 2024. A brief description and then avg max/min, rainfall, sun hours.

January - a topsy-turvy month with a cold spell sandwiched between a mild start and end. Overall average temperatures, but wet and dull. 9c/3c, 70mm, 40 hrs

February - starting cold, possibly with some settling snow, but then turning mild, dry and sunny from the 2nd week. 10/2c, 25mm, 100 hrs

March - a fairly average month. Much sunnier and drier than March 2023. The first 20c of the year late in the month. 12c/4c, 35mm, 120 hrs

April - month of 2 halves with a cool and dull (but dry) first half, followed by a very warm, very dry and sunny 2nd half. 16c/6c, 20mm, 180 hrs

May - a warm, sunny and thundery month. The first widespread severe thunderstorms of the year. 20c/10c, 70mm, 230 hrs

June - a changeable month with a mix of thundery spells and short heat bursts bringing the first 32c of the year. 22c/13c, 50mm, 190 hrs

July - a sunny and dry month with average temperatures. A week of 30c days mid-month. 24c/15c, 25mm, 240 hrs

August - briefly unsettled to start, before high pressure dominates. The hottest month of the year with several days surpassing 35c. 26c/16c, 30mm, 280 hrs

September - starts where August left off, no precipitation until 20th. The final 10 days are very thundery. 22c/12c, 60mm, 190 hrs

October - a fairly standard October with some warm sunny days and cool nights, followed by wet and stormy conditions later. 17c/8c, 70mm, 110 hrs

November - warm in the first week, with temperatures reaching 20c. After that, a gradual descent into colder conditions but dry. 11c/4c, 40mm, 80 hrs

December - A cool, dry and sunny month. Mild in the final week with 17c on New Year's Eve. 7c/2c, 30mm, 70 hrs

 

Sounds like a decent year in my books! A mix of things, with seasonality. 

Fingers crossed something like this pans out...

[B87]

On 24/12/2023 at 16:36, John S2 said:

Decent September - much more anticyclonic than the disappointing Septembers of 2022 & 2023.

Was September 2023 not a very warm and sunny month? It was sunnier than August here.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Jan slightly below avg CET

The rest of the year above avg CET

Weeks of predominantly dry weather followed by weeks of predominantly wet weather.

Summer will have several heatwaves with 32C plus with one tipping 38C. Very dry at times, but with periods of intense downpours and severe storms.

September very warm, switching to very unsettled. Rest of autumn with periods of well above avg temps and storms

 Very cold end of Nov and beginning of December but then mild, v wet and stormy.

I hope I am wrong, but that's how l see 2024 and most years after that playing out.

 

Edited January 14 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Summer8906]

13 minutes ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

Jan slightly below avg CET

The rest of the year above avg CET

Weeks of predominantly dry weather followed by weeks of predominantly wet weather.

Summer will have several heatwaves with 32C plus with one tipping 38C. Very dry at times, but with periods of intense downpours and severe storms.

September very warm, switching to very unsettled. Rest of autumn with periods of well above avg temps and storms

 Very cold end of Nov and beginning of December but then mild, v wet and stormy.

I hope I am wrong, but that's how l see 2024 and most years after that playing out.

 

Certainly much of this seems to be very typical for contemporary years, particularly the fine becoming unsettled Sep and the end-of-Nov cold spell which is becoming quite a recent feature!

A stereotypical contemporary year to me would be:

Jan - wet and somewhat mild overall but one dry spell with average temps

Feb - zonal, very mild, cloudy, perhaps dry, perhaps wet

March - zonal, wet and dull becoming fine

April - mostly fine, dry and sunny

May - often easterly, mixed, becoming dull and wet at the end

June - mix of dull/wet and warm/sunny. One 34c heat spike

July - cloudy, very westerly, dry in south, wet in north, cool days, mild nights, brief 36c heat spike

August - dull and wet with one brief 34c heat spike

Sep - fine sunny first half then becoming dull and wet

Oct - dull, wet, very mild

Nov - dull, wet, very mild but cold end

Dec - cold start then mostly dull, wet and very mild

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

3 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Certainly much of this seems to be very typical for contemporary years, particularly the fine becoming unsettled Sep and the end-of-Nov cold spell which is becoming quite a recent feature!

A stereotypical contemporary year to me would be:

Jan - wet and somewhat mild overall but one dry spell with average temps

Feb - zonal, very mild, cloudy, perhaps dry, perhaps wet

March - zonal, wet and dull becoming fine

April - mostly fine, dry and sunny

May - often easterly, mixed, becoming dull and wet at the end

June - mix of dull/wet and warm/sunny. One 34c heat spike

July - cloudy, very westerly, dry in south, wet in north, cool days, mild nights, brief 36c heat spike

August - dull and wet with one brief 34c heat spike

Sep - fine sunny first half then becoming dull and wet

Oct - dull, wet, very mild

Nov - dull, wet, very mild but cold end

Dec - cold start then mostly dull, wet and very mild

I would put very good money on this pattern occurring. Our weather is becoming predictable unfortunately. I am enjoyed the long dry sunny spells this month though. Happy to get used to those!

[Summer8906]

2 hours ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

I would put very good money on this pattern occurring. Our weather is becoming predictable unfortunately. I am enjoyed the long dry sunny spells this month though. Happy to get used to those!

Certainly it is interesting how frequently certain patterns have occurred recently (since 2015):

a) March starting fairly wet and second half dry and sunny (this year a notable exception) - occurred 2017, 2019, 2020 and 2022

b) April mostly fine and sunny (2015, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022). Like August, this tendency has prevailed since 2007 (see also 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011)

c) July rather cloudy but also fairly dry in the south (2015 by raindays though intense rainfall from the 24th-26th increased the volume of rainfall substantially, plus 2016, 2019, 2020)

d) Unsettled August (all except 2016 and 2022). Like April, this tendency has prevailed since 2006 (see also 2006, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2014)

e) Fine start to September, wet end (2019, 2020, 2021, 2023)

f) Unsettled October (2019-2023 inclusive)

g) Cold end to Nov and/or start of Dec (2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023)

h) Late December mild and wet (2015, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023)

The persistence of the good April/poor August pattern is definitely interesting, enough to recommend to overseas tourists, perhaps, to visit not in August but in April and experience our most reliable season and the beauty of our spring.

Edited January 14 by Summer8906

[Metwatch]

Won't try to predict January as half way through the month and we know it won't be a cold one overall anymore. Rest of months below: (CET and EWP here will likely be different to the monthly competitions I will enter through the year)

February: Near average temps, slightly wetter, a cold snap early to mid month, which could be potent, but not enough to bring overall monthly temperatures down that much. End of month sees a very mild spell. CET 5.1C, EWP 82mm

March: Again another cold snap around mid month otherwise a largely benign month, fairly dry, not that much warmth apart from middle to end a few days. CET 6.9C, EWP 45mm

April: Overall wet and cool but convective. End of month could start to turn drier and warm which would be a teaser for the May to come. CET 8.5C, EWP 104mm

May: One of the warmest on record, will blow recent warm Mays out of the water, a lot of days in the mid to high 20s. Many will see their first 30C in May in a while towards the end. Dryness comparable to 2020 or 1991. CET 14.9C, EWP 26mm.

June: A more tame month for warmth compared to May, however some pleasant spells mixed in, short heatwave somewhere in the middle of the month. CET 15.9C, EWP 46mm

July: Average month for rainfall, temperatures could be warm, with a heatspike in the early part of the month, many reaching the mid 30s. A wet final 7 days. CET 17.5C EWP 62mm

August: Decent month, some warmth mid or late month, wet early part, 30C widely last few days. CET 17.0C EWP 68mm

September: Very warm spell mid month, sandwhiched between more typical wet spells, last few days sees a chilly northerly, similar to late 2020, CET 14.4C, EWP 73mm

October: We break the run of washout Octobers and 2024 is a very dry month, however probably not very sunny either. CET 10.3C, EWP 43mm

November: A wet month, stormy at times, nothing more, nothing less, CET 8.3C, EWP 145mm

December: Dry cool and dull, CET 3.6C, EWP 36mm.

Edited January 14 by Metwatch

[baddie]

10 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Certainly it is interesting how frequently certain patterns have occurred recently (since 2015):

a) March starting fairly wet and second half dry and sunny (this year a notable exception) - occurred 2017, 2019, 2020 and 2022

b) April mostly fine and sunny (2015, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022). Like August, this tendency has prevailed since 2007 (see also 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011)

c) July rather cloudy but also fairly dry in the south (2015 by raindays though intense rainfall from the 24th-26th increased the volume of rainfall substantially, plus 2016, 2019, 2020)

d) Unsettled August (all except 2016 and 2022). Like April, this tendency has prevailed since 2006 (see also 2006, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2014)

e) Fine start to September, wet end (2019, 2020, 2021, 2023)

f) Unsettled October (2019-2023 inclusive)

g) Cold end to Nov and/or start of Dec (2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023)

h) Late December mild and wet (2015, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023)

The persistence of the good April/poor August pattern is definitely interesting, enough to recommend to overseas tourists, perhaps, to visit not in August but in April and experience our most reliable season and the beauty of our spring.

Funny thing is that we havent had an actual dire August since 2010 (2008 for some others), but we are due another very good one. I know every August from 2011 onwards had some saving grace (2014 being rather sunny, 2021 being dry etc.)

Same cant be said for April always being settled. 2012 was just straight up terrible, 2018 was abhorrent (worse than 2012) outside of the 3rd week, 2013, 2016 and 2023 were meh

Edited January 15 by baddie