Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Scuba steve]

19 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

Aww bless her how long has she been out

Since lunchtime I did throw her a sandwich

[Had Worse]

Back from Mosside.

Very wet and bog puddles a over the place.

Just approaching j25   I saw in the distance towards j24 M60 anti clockwise, the matrix boards flashed up that the slow lane was closed and I could see lots of blue lights.

Don't know the detail but it was just passed Denton as the motorway curves round Audenshaw Reservoirs. 

2 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

Since lunchtime I did throw her a sandwich

 Can't beat a soggy sandwich  

Edited January 1 by Had Worse

[Rain Lady]

8 hours ago, Sun dog said:

Just a quick reminder "The Big Snow of '47" Channel 5 @9pm tonight should be worth a watch. 

Just been speaking to my parents about it. They're both in their mid 80's and can still remember walking to junior school through narrow paths cut into the banks of snow unable to see over the top of the drifts. With them both living in central Manchester - Crumpsall & Harpurhey, difficult to imagine what it must have been like. In comparison, their recollection of the winter of 62/63 is nowhere near as severe. 

Can't help wondering if such an event is even possible nowadays. Although winters overall are warmer the frequency of 1 in 100 year events does seem to be increasing. Ultimately a freak event is a freak event - possibly the odds of a repeat haven't significantly changed?

I remember the 1947 snow -- then I was living in West Lancs countryside.   Unusually there was deep long lasting snow,  good  for building very large snowmen.  Most memorable was the construction of a huge snow barrier by local lads across our lane and then neighbours each side had a "them and us" snowball battle late into the night.   Like girls do (!) I kept a football scrapbook with cuttings from newspapers that year.   Football carried on despite snow and hard frozen ground.  Lines cleared with shovels.   picture Man U v Arsenal FA Cup 3rd round in January -

[Weather-history]

8 hours ago, Joe Snow said:

Watching the The Big Snow of 47 on Channel 5 right now as heavy rain continues to fall, quite chilly actually too. Would be interesting to see what conditions were like across low land NW England in the Winter of 1947 that came off the back of a very mild start to the year & severely cold weather building over Scandinavia  - some stunning shots of the Peak District included in the programme.
 

Makes the likes of 09/10 & the 2018 BFTE look hardly severe by comparison  

We had a foretaste at the start of December 1946.  Its a myth that the first half of winter 1946-47 was mild and that it didn't start until after mid January. The severe cold snowy spell didn't begin until after mid January that's true but the first half was not a mild washout like we have been experiencing. There were short cold wintry periods during the first half of that winter.  December 1946 had a CET of 3.1°C, colder than December 2022

 

 

 

myth 

[Weather-history]

Manchester Whitworth Park,  Max, Min ( °F)  

1947

Jan 22:   40, 30   Frost am, cloudy pm

Jan 23:   38, 32   Slight snow am, cloudy pm, clear night

Jan 24:  38, 29   Dull, snow

Jan 25:   39, 34  Cloudy with slight rain at times 

Jan 26:   37, 30  Dull, snow pm 

Jan 27:   34, 31  Intermittent snow

Jan 28:   33, 29  Occasional slight snow, snow at times overnight

Jan 29:   30, 21  Cloudy early am, sunshine during day

Jan 30:   29, 18  Clear am, cloudy later

Jan 31 :  33, 27  Dull with slight snow

...........

 

Feb 1:    35, 31  Cloudy

Feb 2:    36, 30  Dull  Sleet/snow am

Feb 3:    36, 33  Dull slight sleet/snow, snow overnight

Feb 4 :   35, 32  Dull, snow pm and overnight

Feb 5:    34, 30  Dull, slight snow

Feb 6:    31, 27  Dull, slight snow

Feb 7:    30, 26  Dull, slight snow am

Feb 8:    32, 25  Dull

Feb 9:    32, 28  Dull, snow at times

Feb 10:  37, 30  Overcast, slight snow

Feb 11:  32, 29  Overcast, slight snow am

Feb 12:  32, 29  Dull,  occasional slight snow

Feb 13:  33, 30   Overcast, slight intermittent snow

Feb 14:  33, 30  Dull, slight snow at times

Feb 15:  33, 26  Cloudy

Feb 16   33, 26  Cloudy

Feb 17   31, 26  Cloudy

Feb 18   34, 26  Cloudy, clear night

Feb 19   35, 30  Overcast

Feb 20   32, 27  Dull

Feb 21   30, 26  Snow at times

Feb 22   32, 26  Snow 

Feb 23   34, 18   Fog am, clearer pm

Feb 24   36, 14  Slight fog am, clear

Feb 25   35, 17  Cloudy pm, snow at night

Feb 26   39, 30   Snow/rain early am, milder

Feb 27   37, 29  Cloudy, some sun

Feb 28   36, 27  Snow am

----------------------------------------------------

Mar 1    36, 22  Bright sunshine

Mar 2    38, 22  Overcast with snow

Mar 3    41, 16  Fog and frost am  sunshine

Mar 4    36, 31  Sunshine am, cloudy after, snow at night

Mar 5    34, 31  Cloudy slight snow

Mar 6    38, 26  Bright sunshine

Mar 7    40, 24  Slight snow am, snow in evening at night

Mar 8    39, 31  Cloudy

Mar 9    44, 32   Cloudy, slight sleet am

Mar 10  39, 34   Dull

Mar 11  37, 33  Dull

Mar 12  34, 29   Dull, continuous snow pm. Snow, ice particles and rain at times at night

Mar 13  42, 29   Dull with continuous rain at times

Mar 14   39, 31  Overcast, slight snow early am

Mar 15  38, 25   Dull, snow in evening at night

Mar 16  48, 33   Overcast, rain at times, strong wind with rain at night 

 

 

 

[A Face like Thunder]

What a great programme last night on the winter of 1947. I sat entranced looking at clips from before even I was born! That was a desperate winter following years of conflict and privation. I loved the bit at the end when two guys from the MO looked ahead and forecast an awful summer weather-wise, and what did they get, a dry hot summer of course. Some things never change.

Meanwhile, 77 years on, a dark and gloomy morning and the forecast rain has already arrived. I'm glad we're not included in the amber warning for wind later.   

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester Whitworth Park,  Max, Min ( °F)  

1947

Jan 22:   40, 30   Frost am, cloudy pm

Jan 23:   38, 32   Slight snow am, cloudy pm, clear night

Jan 24:  38, 29   Dull, snow

Jan 25:   39, 34  Cloudy with slight rain at times 

Jan 26:   37, 30  Dull, snow pm 

Jan 27:   34, 31  Intermittent snow

Jan 28:   33, 29  Occasional slight snow, snow at times overnight

Jan 29:   30, 21  Cloudy early am, sunshine during day

Jan 30:   29, 18  Clear am, cloudy later

Jan 31 :  33, 27  Dull with slight snow

...........

 

Feb 1:    35, 31  Cloudy

Feb 2:    36, 30  Dull  Sleet/snow am

Feb 3:    36, 33  Dull slight sleet/snow, snow overnight

Feb 4 :   35, 32  Dull, snow pm and overnight

Feb 5:    34, 30  Dull, slight snow

Feb 6:    31, 27  Dull, slight snow

Feb 7:    30, 26  Dull, slight snow am

Feb 8:    32, 25  Dull

Feb 9:    32, 28  Dull, snow at times

Feb 10:  37, 30  Overcast, slight snow

Feb 11:  32, 29  Overcast, slight snow am

Feb 12:  32, 29  Dull,  occasional slight snow

Feb 13:  33, 30   Overcast, slight intermittent snow

Feb 14:  33, 30  Dull, slight snow at times

Feb 15:  33, 26  Cloudy

Feb 16   33, 26  Cloudy

Feb 17   31, 26  Cloudy

Feb 18   34, 26  Cloudy, clear night

Feb 19   35, 30  Overcast

Feb 20   32, 27  Dull

Feb 21   30, 26  Snow at times

Feb 22   32, 26  Snow 

Feb 23   34, 18   Fog am, clearer pm

Feb 24   36, 14  Slight fog am, clear

Feb 25   35, 17  Cloudy pm, snow at night

Feb 26   39, 30   Snow/rain early am, milder

Feb 27   37, 29  Cloudy, some sun

Feb 28   36, 27  Snow am

----------------------------------------------------

Mar 1    36, 22  Bright sunshine

Mar 2    38, 22  Overcast with snow

Mar 3    41, 16  Fog and frost am  sunshine

Mar 4    36, 31  Sunshine am, cloudy after, snow at night

Mar 5    34, 31  Cloudy slight snow

Mar 6    38, 26  Bright sunshine

Mar 7    40, 24  Slight snow am, snow in evening at night

Mar 8    39, 31  Cloudy

Mar 9    44, 32   Cloudy, slight sleet am

Mar 10  39, 34   Dull

Mar 11  37, 33  Dull

Mar 12  34, 29   Dull, continuous snow pm. Snow, ice particles and rain at times at night

Mar 13  42, 29   Dull with continuous rain at times

Mar 14   39, 31  Overcast, slight snow early am

Mar 15  38, 25   Dull, snow in evening at night

Mar 16  48, 33   Overcast, rain at times, strong wind with rain at night 

 

 

 

What a forecast that is or actual weather.

[itsnowjoke]

Drizzle here 

[Dan B]

8ºC and raining, again... It's like SSDD/Rinse n Repeat/Groundhog Day all rolled into one currently

 

Looks much better from the weekend though; least it looks to be going somewhat colder & drier

[Rain Lady]

Picked up 23.9 mm at 9 GMT for previous 24hrs.  Gloomy.  Not a chink of sunlight.

[Weather-history]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester Whitworth Park,  Max, Min ( °F)  

1947

Jan 22:   40, 30   Frost am, cloudy pm

Jan 23:   38, 32   Slight snow am, cloudy pm, clear night

Jan 24:  38, 29   Dull, snow

Jan 25:   39, 34  Cloudy with slight rain at times 

Jan 26:   37, 30  Dull, snow pm 

Jan 27:   34, 31  Intermittent snow

Jan 28:   33, 29  Occasional slight snow, snow at times overnight

Jan 29:   30, 21  Cloudy early am, sunshine during day

Jan 30:   29, 18  Clear am, cloudy later

Jan 31 :  33, 27  Dull with slight snow

...........

 

Feb 1:    35, 31  Cloudy

Feb 2:    36, 30  Dull  Sleet/snow am

Feb 3:    36, 33  Dull slight sleet/snow, snow overnight

Feb 4 :   35, 32  Dull, snow pm and overnight

Feb 5:    34, 30  Dull, slight snow

Feb 6:    31, 27  Dull, slight snow

Feb 7:    30, 26  Dull, slight snow am

Feb 8:    32, 25  Dull

Feb 9:    32, 28  Dull, snow at times

Feb 10:  37, 30  Overcast, slight snow

Feb 11:  32, 29  Overcast, slight snow am

Feb 12:  32, 29  Dull,  occasional slight snow

Feb 13:  33, 30   Overcast, slight intermittent snow

Feb 14:  33, 30  Dull, slight snow at times

Feb 15:  33, 26  Cloudy

Feb 16   33, 26  Cloudy

Feb 17   31, 26  Cloudy

Feb 18   34, 26  Cloudy, clear night

Feb 19   35, 30  Overcast

Feb 20   32, 27  Dull

Feb 21   30, 26  Snow at times

Feb 22   32, 26  Snow 

Feb 23   34, 18   Fog am, clearer pm

Feb 24   36, 14  Slight fog am, clear

Feb 25   35, 17  Cloudy pm, snow at night

Feb 26   39, 30   Snow/rain early am, milder

Feb 27   37, 29  Cloudy, some sun

Feb 28   36, 27  Snow am

----------------------------------------------------

Mar 1    36, 22  Bright sunshine

Mar 2    38, 22  Overcast with snow

Mar 3    41, 16  Fog and frost am  sunshine

Mar 4    36, 31  Sunshine am, cloudy after, snow at night

Mar 5    34, 31  Cloudy slight snow

Mar 6    38, 26  Bright sunshine

Mar 7    40, 24  Slight snow am, snow in evening at night

Mar 8    39, 31  Cloudy

Mar 9    44, 32   Cloudy, slight sleet am

Mar 10  39, 34   Dull

Mar 11  37, 33  Dull

Mar 12  34, 29   Dull, continuous snow pm. Snow, ice particles and rain at times at night

Mar 13  42, 29   Dull with continuous rain at times

Mar 14   39, 31  Overcast, slight snow early am

Mar 15  38, 25   Dull, snow in evening at night

Mar 16  48, 33   Overcast, rain at times, strong wind with rain at night 

 

 

 

Looking at it from Merseyside and the Wirral part of the region

Mean temp for Feb: 29.12°F

By the end of Feb, that had been 39 consecutive air frosts and snow lying on the ground all month where not disturbed.

At Birkenhead, there was just 27hrs of sunshine during Feb and there was 16 consecutive days with no sunshine.

Snowfalls were less heavy than during 1940, 1941 and 1942. 8 inches being the deepest measured at any stage.

 

[cheshireoak]

7.4 C persistent heavy rain in the marginals and very gloomy. Hoping this is the last day of it.

[Joe Snow]

Heavy pouring rain to match the post festive season mood to start to the new working year for many. A pattern change is coming though this weekend - turning drier, colder with frosts becoming more severe with time, wintry showers for eastern parts of the region as early as next Monday and the potential for a reload and lock in of more significant cold and snow potential as we approach mid January - people need not to get ahead of themselves, there will be upgrades and downgrades along the way but a cold spell that becomes more severe as we approach mid month and importantly the core of winter is on the table as an option for mid winter something we haven't seen properly since Winter 2012/13 - tying in with the MO thoughts for several weeks now.  

Edited January 2 by Joe Snow

[cheshireoak]

Just now, Joe Snow said:

Heavy pouring rain to match the post festive season mood to start to the new working year for many. A pattern change is coming though this weekend though - turning drier, colder with frosts becoming more severe with time, wintry showers for eastern parts of the region as early as next Monday and the potential for a reload and lock in of more significant cold and snow potential as we approach mid January - people need not to get ahead of themselves, there will be upgrades and downgrades along the way but a cold spell that becomes more severe as we approach mid month and importantly the core of winter is on the table as an option for mid winter something we haven't seen properly since Winter 2012/13 - tying in with the MO thoughts for several weeks now.  

let's hope so, Joe. Continued excitement in the model threat but I can't help thinking that significant cold spells will soon be a thing of the past for lowland/mid altitude locations. Think the last time the lanes got filled in here for any length of time was 1990/1. Although we have had cold spells and 2010-11 was memorable.

[Rush2019]

2 hours ago, A Face like Thunder said:

What a great programme last night on the winter of 1947. I sat entranced looking at clips from before even I was born! That was a desperate winter following years of conflict and privation. I loved the bit at the end when two guys from the MO looked ahead and forecast an awful summer weather-wise, and what did they get, a dry hot summer of course. Some things never change.

Meanwhile, 77 years on, a dark and gloomy morning and the forecast rain has already arrived. I'm glad we're not included in the amber warning for wind later.   

Yes I enjoyed the programme too.  I think one of the opening sentences described the winter of 1947 as like 5 times the intensity of 2018s beast from the east  and lasting several weeks longer, I was immediately hooked.  

Rain before, rain now and rain later.  Rain on the raindar.  It's raining.  Good news is the trend for something colder.  Hints of a bit of snow excitement too.

[tricol]

Properly raining now, very heavy. Looking at the radar, it will be here for a while yet. So difficult to see a drier spell on the horizon. The ground around us is totally drenched. Lots of flooded roads and fields yesterday, so I can only imagine things will be worse again today. 

[Scuba steve]

Just drizzle here but it put some rain down last night everything sodden and a couple of springs  flowing down the lane that only appear after periods of intense wet weather 

Edited January 2 by Scuba steve

[Cheshire Freeze]

Anybody got a canoe?

[iand61]

Nothing more than nuisance value here really with the heavier stuff to my south and up to now tying in nicely with the warning area.

A lot yesterday and overnight though with plenty of debris laid in the usual parts where run off becomes a problem.

[Rush2019]

23 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Anybody got a canoe?

No, not got a canoe or boat, only got an inflatable Freddie Mercury,

[cheshireoak]

Garden going under water, feet now webbed. 

[Scuba steve]

14 minutes ago, Rush2019 said:

No, not got a canoe or boat, only got an inflatable Freddie Mercury,

I won’t ask

[Rush2019]

3 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

I won’t ask

He's actually my daughters, he's an old hen party prop.

[Dark Horse]

1 hour ago, Joe Snow said:

Heavy pouring rain to match the post festive season mood to start to the new working year for many. A pattern change is coming though this weekend - turning drier, colder with frosts becoming more severe with time, wintry showers for eastern parts of the region as early as next Monday and the potential for a reload and lock in of more significant cold and snow potential as we approach mid January - people need not to get ahead of themselves, there will be upgrades and downgrades along the way but a cold spell that becomes more severe as we approach mid month and importantly the core of winter is on the table as an option for mid winter something we haven't seen properly since Winter 2012/13 - tying in with the MO thoughts for several weeks now.  

Yeah they get slated a lot especially their short term automated forecasts, understandably so as they can be pretty wide of the mark at times but I do rate their long term ones quite well. Kudos to them if this pulls off.

[Had Worse]

Extra large drops of rain today. 

They are leaving bubbles in the puddles.  

Oh , for this to be snow ❄