Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

Crepuscular Ray · January 8

20 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Check forum daily been talking for days about seeing a few flakes.

I have been keeping an eye out, but this village seems to escape snow when the wind is in the current direction.

keithlucky · January 8

4 minutes ago, Crepuscular Ray said:

I have been keeping an eye out, but this village seems to escape snow when the wind is in the current direction.

Same here but blizzards to come!

Loadsa2000 · January 8

Marcus_surfer · January 8

So we've had the very slightest dusting of snow here, wind has picked up a bit. Temperature 0.5C feels alot colder. Such a shame all that heavier precipitation is in the English channel but seems like some places have done quite well especially considering these showers originated from the north sea

The4Seasons · January 8

I have just been out and about and I managed to take a few night photos. Difficult to capture on this phone but nice to see abit of laying snow in the Cowbridge area after the earlier snowfall. I didn't expect that at all. It was just a little shame the Christmas lights were taken off the potted christmas tree yesterday. It would have been so nice to have taken a photo of the snow with the lights on

Edited January 8 by The4Seasons

wimblettben · January 8

Have had on and off very light and small grains of snow here for the last few hours but i could tell that it was from showers because of seeing starry skies every once and awhile.

Its settling very lightly on some roofs and cars but its just melting everywhere else.

The4Seasons · January 9

Omg imagine this happening again. 2018 storm Emma volumes all over again lol ❄

Pembroke Dangler · January 9

40 minutes ago, The4Seasons said:

Omg imagine this happening again. 2018 storm Emma volumes all over again lol ❄

This could be a great match for the January 1982 snow storm that his us let’s hope it’s similar to that

snefnug · January 9

1 minute ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

This could be a great match for the January 1982 snow storm that his us let’s hope it’s similar to that

Part of me says yes, the other says definitely not!

Pembroke Dangler · January 9

1 minute ago, snefnug said:

Part of me says yes, the other says definitely not!

I think it will correct further south in time they usually do and the Channel Islands get buried but we stay cold with snow shower chances. But you never know 42 years is a long time between big snow events so we are due one. Not including 2018 as us in Swansea we’re wondering what all the fuss was about.

mattrout92 · January 9

Good to see a few flakes yesterday evening. Fingers crossed next week is one to remember, models looking good at the moment, and they have done for some time.

Marcus_surfer · January 9

It will probably be the coldest day of the week here. Currently 0.6°C and winds gusting to around 25mph making it feel more like -4°C

Buzz · January 9

Yup, a bloody cold and strong wind here today.

Daniel_c150311 · January 9

could be interesting next we but probably wont happen...

Jayfromcardiff · January 9

Looking like a snow to rain event next week currently based on the latest model runs, I hope not but it's happened too often in the past!

DeepSnow · January 9

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

Looking like a snow to rain event next week currently based on the latest model runs, I hope not but it's happened too often in the past!

Yes unfortunately it does look like if it happens it will all be for nothing in the sense it soon gets washed away. Fingers crossed it corrects south closer to the time with the cold holding stronger than predicted, so we can get a deep snowfall with a stalling front and then the cold to keep it around lol.

Ian Price · January 9

I was pleased to get my lenticular sunrise pic on bbc breakfast this morning!

snefnug · January 9

3 minutes ago, Ian Price said:

I was pleased to get my lenticular sunrise pic on bbc breakfast this morning!

Crikey that’s beautiful! Well done.

keithlucky · January 9

1 hour ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Looking like a snow to rain event next week currently based on the latest model runs, I hope not but it's happened too often in the past!

Certainly battle grounds are drawn ,this is set to be one hell of fight Large area oh high pressure to the north with Low pressure to the south west running up the channel .Some heavy snow around with snow to rain ,rain turning back to snow events.The met office agrees to this because of strat warming event as I mentioned previously the down dwelling will last until February so lots of battles ahead!

Edited January 9 by keithlucky

Loadsa2000 · January 10

Get your bread in

Met Office warns of band of snow causing 'increasing risk' of disruption from end of the week

The Met Office has predicted that the cold weather could remain well into February

The Met Office and other forecasters have warned that the next coming days could see a "band of snow" and a cold spell which could last for weeks. The majority of forecasters have said that the UK is set to reach sub-zero temperatures next week, and the Met Office has predicted that the cold weather could remain well into February, North Wales Live has reported.

It comes as the Met Office has predicted that global factors could see more cold and dry conditions in the UK this month. Such factors include a strong El Niño – the naturally occurring warming of the Pacific Ocean – and a phenomenon known as a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) where the upper stratosphere rapidly gets warmer, often causing high pressure that leads to colder weather in the northern hemisphere.

If this is to happen, it could lead to "potentially disruptive" snow across much of Wales and England, the forecaster has said. Different models have predicted different impacts, which range from forecasts of 18cm of snow in parts of mid Wales, while there is a chance of 42cm of snow across the southern parts of Wales - according to the ECMWF weather model. For the latest Welsh news delivered to your inbox sign up to our newsletter

Meanwhile in England, there is set to be heavy falls too. However, if the band of low pressure does not move as far north as currently predicted, the impact may be felt further south, or there may be little or no snow at all.

In its updated medium-range UK forecast for January 14-23, the Met Office said: "There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through this period, which could lead to a band of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country.

"Confidence is low with regards to the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue to be a feature by night, with a risk of ice in places."

The ECMWF weather model is forecasting widespread snow with depths of up to 42cm in South Wales by Friday, January 19 (Image: WXCharts)

More moderate snow depths (cm) are being forecast by the GFS model for Thursday, January 18. (Image: WXCharts)

Temperatures are likely to ease upwards temporarily but is dependent on if and when the low front arrives. Currently, projections show the front moving north on Wednesday, January 20, which will drop rain but in its turn produce snow when it hits the cold.

Most weather modes are showing that the low will pull away to herald a return to colder air, according to North Wales Live. However, there are various predictions on temperatures - some outputs show the mercury falling to -10C over the snowfields of Wales and England, while others indicate the cold may not be as extreme as initially feared, hitting lows of -4C in Wales early next week.

The Met Office predicts that high pressure will remain in charge for the rest of January and into February. And by potentially bringing colder conditions, it leaves open the possibility for further snow. Looking ahead, in its UK forecast for Wednesday, January 24 to February 7, the Met Office has said: "Through this period, the greatest likelihood is that high pressure will remain the more dominant influence on the weather. Most likely (this will be) centred somewhere to the northwest of the UK, with winds from the north or north-east perhaps more frequent than usual, with generally reduced amounts of precipitation.

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Met Office warns of weeks of 'significant and widespread snow' as it ramps up forecast

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Chances of snow in January are growing, says BBC forecasters