Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[dbaloo]

1 hour ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Ahhhhhhhh we are missing out on the snow dump next week.....travelling through France now  

Worry about this next Monday evening..til then enjoy the dry weather and the ground drying out

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Ahhhhhhhh we are missing out on the snow dump next week.....travelling through France now  

Ain't over until its over.

[WINTRY WALES]

Just now, keithlucky said:

Ain't over until its over.

What does the blue, light green and darker green indicate??

[CLH]

26 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

What does the blue, light green and darker green indicate??

Precipitation levels

[whiskers]

Oh no! Is it over? Just because I told everyone of the snow next week! I’ve cursed it!

[mattrout92]

9 minutes ago, whiskers said:

Oh no! Is it over? Just because I told everyone of the snow next week! I’ve cursed it!

Don't think we will know until Sunday, still too far out at this range. Models output is still changing a lot 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Major dumping of snow next week you watch, that low will sit and pivot over us!

[keithlucky]

3 hours ago, keithlucky said:

Ain't over until its over.

Snow line smack on SWales for Thursday

[Jayfromcardiff]

30 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Snow line smack on SWales for Thursday

The supermarket shelves will be empty by Monday no doubt if they put warnings out.

[Bartlett High]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

The supermarket shelves will be empty by Monday no doubt if they put warnings out.

Tracking further south it looks like.

Looks like NW England is the sweet spot at the moment......could and probably will change before then.

[goosey007]

4 hours ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Major dumping of snow next week you watch, that low will sit and pivot over us!

Hope your right jay ….. the trend hasn’t been our friend today with it tracking further south than modelled yesterday we need to start to see that move back north a bit of the comming runs ….. think brum north can now be ruled out for this LP ….but SW still has a chance of course looks as though secondary Low may give us what we want just less perhaps ….. keep watching

Edited January 11 by goosey007

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 hour ago, goosey007 said:

Hope your right jay ….. the trend hasn’t been our friend today with it tracking further south than modelled yesterday we need to start to see that move back north a bit of the comming runs ….. think brum north can now be ruled out for this LP ….but SW still has a chance of course looks as though secondary Low may give us what we want just less perhaps ….. keep watching

It's missing us now apparently .

[Loadsa2000]

The low will head back north in the next few days. The pros at the Met said there was only a low probability of the low staying in France.

[WINTRY WALES]

47 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

The low will head back north in the next few days. The pros at the Met said there was only a low probability of the low staying in France.

A few days ago they said based on the output at that time. Now unfortunately the output is showing it heading south into France. Still time for a change but not looking likely now sadly. 

[blackrose73]

Have faith people, we are still 6 days out, a long time in weather terms. The Met Office said the models are not handling this well. There will be further corrections in the coming days. It's still all to play for IMO.

[Sky Full]

Interesting article which shows all the usual weather models and their various interpretations of the cold weather ahead…..

Maps show the dramatically varying forecasts for a massive snowstorm over Wales next week - and the huge uncertainty that remains - Wales Online

WWW.WALESONLINE.CO.UK

---

There remains huge uncertainty about the prospect of a "historic" snowfall in Wales

So, as usual, there’s no agreement.

[snefnug]

14 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Interesting article which shows all the usual weather models and their various interpretations of the cold weather ahead…..

 

Maps show the dramatically varying forecasts for a massive snowstorm over Wales next week - and the huge uncertainty that remains - Wales Online

WWW.WALESONLINE.CO.UK

---

There remains huge uncertainty about the prospect of a "historic" snowfall in Wales

So, as usual, there’s no agreement.

Fair dos on the reporter for actually showing charts and quoting meto etc.

[CLH]

11 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Fair dos on the reporter for actually showing charts and quoting meto etc.

Kind of.....

That's Reach PLC's new method. So look for articles in, for example, the Express that will say "exact date 750 mile snow wall expected to devastate the UK and kill all known life" while running an article that viewers don't like Laura Tobin because her forecasts are scaremongering.

So, yeah, good that they don't just go to Exacta now but still a long way away from doing it for anything other than sensationalism.

And, I wrote that before I checked and, lo and behold:

[snefnug]

1 hour ago, CLH said:

Kind of.....

That's Reach PLC's new method. So look for articles in, for example, the Express that will say "exact date 750 mile snow wall expected to devastate the UK and kill all known life" while running an article that viewers don't like Laura Tobin because her forecasts are scaremongering.

So, yeah, good that they don't just go to Exacta now but still a long way away from doing it for anything other than sensationalism.

And, I wrote that before I checked and, lo and behold:

Just ventured into daily express.  Them using weather maps as well, but well cherry picked and accompanied by snowmageddon hell rhetoric….

[CLH]

12 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Just ventured into daily express.  Them using weather maps as well, but well cherry picked and accompanied by snowmageddon hell rhetoric….

They started doing this a while back. And WalesOnline is part of Reach PLC, so they've got the memo too. At least it has some scientific basis rather than the crap that they used to put out. But, without context, it's arguably just as bad.

They are now obsessed with the phrase "exact date" and described everything as a "wall" or "bomb" or "insertarmageddon here."

But, no matter how apocalyptic, it appears under a billion articles about Harry and Meghan.

Anyhow, back on topic, noticeably "warmer" last two days. The ice I extracted from the hollow on my patio furniture cover has melted. "Milder" weekend coming and then into the cold  again. 

Will it snow. Well, cold is half the battle. Let's see.........

[snefnug]

1 minute ago, CLH said:

They started doing this a while back. And WalesOnline is part of Reach PLC, so they've got the memo too. At least it has some scientific basis rather than the crap that they used to put out. But, without context, it's arguably just as bad.

They are now obsessed with the phrase "exact date" and described everything as a "wall" or "bomb" or "insertarmageddon here."

But, no matter how apocalyptic, it appears under a billion articles about Harry and Meghan.

Anyhow, back on topic, noticeably "warmer" last two days. The ice I extracted from the hollow on my patio furniture cover has melted. "Milder" weekend coming and then into the cold  again. 

Will it snow. Well, cold is half the battle. Let's see.........

Well 5c is quite chilly still but granted not Uber cold.     As you say wait and see.   On that note all gone a bit Uber bonkers meltdowns in MadMod, in spite of sensible posters…..

[Missdolly]

I'm staying away from the mad thread , it's ridiculously childish . The models are all over the place also , you'd think with all of today's technology it would be giving out accurate reports! 

Think we need to go back to early 80s style forecasting with the magnetic symbols . 

Anyway let's just see at least it's cold , hopefully we'll get the snow next week , Wales has a different system , we get rain even when it's not forecast .

[snefnug]

3 minutes ago, Missdolly said:

I'm staying away from the mad thread , it's ridiculously childish . The models are all over the place also , you'd think with all of today's technology it would be giving out accurate reports! 

Think we need to go back to early 80s style forecasting with the magnetic symbols . 

Anyway let's just see at least it's cold , hopefully we'll get the snow next week , Wales has a different system , we get rain even when it's not forecast .

Thats because  our default setting is green green grass……

[Crepuscular Ray]

1 hour ago, snefnug said:

Thats because  our default setting is green green grass……

[keithlucky]

2 hours ago, Missdolly said:

I'm staying away from the mad thread , it's ridiculously childish . The models are all over the place also , you'd think with all of today's technology it would be giving out accurate reports! 

Think we need to go back to early 80s style forecasting with the magnetic symbols . 

Anyway let's just see at least it's cold , hopefully we'll get the snow next week , Wales has a different system , we get rain even when it's not forecast .

Patience is a vitue we just need the rub of the green  Precipation increases next week and temperatures are dropping, slowly does it ,Snow is on the way!No sign of long term warm up  7 to 10 days ahead.

Edited January 12 by keithlucky