South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[khodds]

My rain gauge/thermometer is saying -5.2?! Double checked it with my handheld IR thermometer and that says -4.5… this is crazy?!

[Mark Parsons]

5 minutes ago, khodds said:

My rain gauge/thermometer is saying -5.2?! Double checked it with my handheld IR thermometer and that says -4.5… this is crazy?!

you've something weird going  

[Glenosnow]

3 hours ago, Mapantz said:

The 15Z UKV has moved the ppn further north on Tuesday night. It still remains mostly in France and in the channel, but it has definitely inched north.

If it can keep inching north over the next few runs that would be good and we might be in with a shout......I'm running out of straws to clutch .

 

[festivalking]

On the GFS it has inched further north! Hopefully not to much more north than this.Be ironic would it not after diving through Paris in the end it dived through Birmingham 

[Jayfromcardiff]

40 minutes ago, festivalking said:

On the GFS it has inched further north! Hopefully not to much more north than this.Be ironic would it not after diving through Paris in the end it dived through Birmingham 

Bit of a turnaround if this continues North, I don't think this is going to be nailed until tomorrow night as they'll need to issue warnings.

[Alderc 2.0]

GFS has widespread maxes of -3C and mins well below -10C Thursday and Friday night across Dorset, Wiltshire, Devon and Cornwall. 

Edited January 14 by Alderc 2.0

[noggin]

I said that I wouldn’t get carried away/fooled/taken in any more…..BUT the current scenario for Wednesday/Thursday is looking good!

[festivalking]

55 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

GFS has widespread maxes of -3C and mins well below -10C Thursday and Friday night across Dorset, Wiltshire, Devon and Cornwall. 

Yes some staggering low minima. Linked with snow cover no doubt. Hard not to let the mind drift but with keeping things in perspective still not convinced with UKMO and ECM not interested

[Nights King]

34 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Yes some staggering low minima. Linked with snow cover no doubt. Hard not to let the mind drift but with keeping things in perspective still not convinced with UKMO and ECM not interested

If ukmo becomes interested I will start to take an interest 

[lettice]

High of 2.8c yesterday at 10 pm annd stayed ant that till 2am, when it dropped a little, after hovering around 2c for much of the daylight hours.
Low of 2.3c at 7am.

Blue sky this morning and now 3.2c
Feels quite pleasant outside, despite the temps.

[Deep Channel low]

GFS 6hrs has the snow  just touching the south coast, 0hrs had a no work snow day. I need a snow day 

Edited January 14 by Deep Channel low

[Somerset girl]

The sun has just broken through the grey gloom :-)! Hooray . Forecast for next few days looks rather grand too. Sun wise anyway . 

 

[festivalking]

7 minutes ago, Deep Channel low said:

GFS 6hrs has the snow  just touching the south coast, 0hrs had a no work snow day. I need a snow day 

This is going to be a long week......think mogreps comes out around midday that will give some clues to the UKMO. Plus the fax charts should be enlightening

[ChannelThunder]

Forecaster's nightmare, this low. Jamie at IOW Met Service is being brave enough to do Facebook updates explaining the situation, opening himself up to dramatic replies from those who don't actually read or understand the situation and expect their snow!

I always favour the ECM over the others, particularly when it comes to the position of lows; so I'm about 80% sure this precip. will be staying in France. 

Edited January 14 by ChannelThunder

[festivalking]

2 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

Forecaster's nightmare, this low. Jamie at IOW Met Service is being brave enough to do Facebook updates explaining the situation, opening himself up to dramatic replies from those who don't actually read or understand the situation and expect their snow!

I always favour the ECM over the others, particularly when it comes to the position of lows; so I'm about 80% sure this precip. is staying in France. 

That would be interesting what's his full name or do you have a link to the Facebook page?

And yes super brave.

[ChannelThunder]

22 minutes ago, festivalking said:

That would be interesting what's his full name or do you have a link to the Facebook page?

And yes super brave.

https://www.facebook.com/iwmetservice

Jamie (Russell) is also a member on here, can't remember his username right now though!

[dr weather]

Bright day here so far - nice to see the sun.

I don't dare to mention the other 'S' word.

(Life was much easier 20+ years ago when the computer models weren't publicly available.)

[jy]

Be ok as long as no warnings issued if there are....stung too often by the dreaded Curse of the Channel Low in the past..even if this isn't one lol

[AWD]

The way I think it’ll play out midweek, when taking everything into a blend of a median, is something like the below;

Each line being the northern extent of any PPN.

Red line - 45% chance and currently the most favoured.

Blue line - 25% chance

Green line - 15% chance

Yellow line - 10% chance 

5% chance - The weather is never 100% guaranteed and sometimes does the unexpected, so I will always leave a 5% chance for it to do something totally unmodelled like blast up to Scotland etc.  Never can we forecast the weather with 100% certainty.

Also, small caveat is I’m not 100% convinced that any PPN that may reach southern coastal counties/IOW is certain to fall as snow and not rain.  There’s more to forecasting snow than just the 850hpa temps and some modelling does play around with the idea of less cold sectors being mixed in with this LP, less favourable DP’s etc so definitely a lot to watch for, for those on the South Coast.

Finally, our channel Island members in here MAY be our snowiest parts of the region next week.  Not often we say that!!

[khodds]

8 minutes ago, AWD said:

The way I think it’ll play out midweek, when taking everything into a blend of a median, is something like the below;

Each line being the northern extent of any PPN.

Red line - 45% chance and currently the most favoured.

Blue line - 25% chance

Green line - 15% chance

Yellow line - 10% chance 

5% chance - The weather is never 100% guaranteed and sometimes does the unexpected, so I will always leave a 5% chance for it to do something totally unmodelled like blast up to Scotland etc.  Never can we forecast the weather with 100% certainty.

Also, small caveat is I’m not 100% convinced that any PPN that may reach southern coastal counties/IOW is certain to fall as snow and not rain.  There’s more to forecasting snow than just the 850hpa temps and some modelling does play around with the idea of less cold sectors being mixed in with this LP, less favourable DP’s etc so definitely a lot to watch for, for those on the South Coast.

Finally, our channel Island members in here MAY be our snowiest parts of the region next week.  Not often we say that!!

Happened once already this winter.. seems to be happening more often than we get anything these days 

[festivalking]

28 minutes ago, AWD said:

The way I think it’ll play out midweek, when taking everything into a blend of a median, is something like the below;

Each line being the northern extent of any PPN.

Red line - 45% chance and currently the most favoured.

Blue line - 25% chance

Green line - 15% chance

Yellow line - 10% chance 

5% chance - The weather is never 100% guaranteed and sometimes does the unexpected, so I will always leave a 5% chance for it to do something totally unmodelled like blast up to Scotland etc.  Never can we forecast the weather with 100% certainty.

Also, small caveat is I’m not 100% convinced that any PPN that may reach southern coastal counties/IOW is certain to fall as snow and not rain.  There’s more to forecasting snow than just the 850hpa temps and some modelling does play around with the idea of less cold sectors being mixed in with this LP, less favourable DP’s etc so definitely a lot to watch for, for those on the South Coast.

Finally, our channel Island members in here MAY be our snowiest parts of the region next week.  Not often we say that!!

Great analysis thank you. Wonder what macro conditions effect the direction of that low which obviously has such effect at a micro level

[Andy Bown]

4 hours ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

GFS has widespread maxes of -3C and mins well below -10C Thursday and Friday night across Dorset, Wiltshire, Devon and Cornwall. 

Surely that’s because it fancies snow cover beforehand.

Without snow cover it’ll be more like 3c max and -5c min under a sunny/clear sky.

Lovely day today.

[Mapantz]

Sunny spells have arrived. Temp up to 7.7°C.

[jy]

6 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Sunny spells have arrived. Temp up to 7.7°C.

Almost time for Budgie Smugglers and an ice cream

[Dorsetbred]

Afternoon All, clear blue skies, warming sunshine, what's not to like about a January high pressure.

It's overcast, but a slight glimmer of sun, with the overnight low struggling to get down to its overnight low of 0.2°C at: 08:50, currently 4.6°C, RH87% with light air movement from the NW - N.

From Above

On Golden sands

Edited January 14 by Dorsetbred