South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[SilverWolf]

56 minutes ago, AWD said:

The way I think it’ll play out midweek, when taking everything into a blend of a median, is something like the below;

Each line being the northern extent of any PPN.

Red line - 45% chance and currently the most favoured.

Blue line - 25% chance

Green line - 15% chance

Yellow line - 10% chance 

5% chance - The weather is never 100% guaranteed and sometimes does the unexpected, so I will always leave a 5% chance for it to do something totally unmodelled like blast up to Scotland etc.  Never can we forecast the weather with 100% certainty.

Also, small caveat is I’m not 100% convinced that any PPN that may reach southern coastal counties/IOW is certain to fall as snow and not rain.  There’s more to forecasting snow than just the 850hpa temps and some modelling does play around with the idea of less cold sectors being mixed in with this LP, less favourable DP’s etc so definitely a lot to watch for, for those on the South Coast.

Finally, our channel Island members in here MAY be our snowiest parts of the region next week.  Not often we say that!!

That looks about right! The 5%  you mentioned, is there any chance the low could pivot and move north? Or is simply to big and will just barrel through, regardless of where it runs? I asked this the the MOD thread, but it was quickly buried with other posts.. 

[AWD]

4 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

That looks about right! The 5%  you mentioned, is there any chance the low could pivot and move north? Or is simply to big and will just barrel through, regardless of where it runs? I asked this the the MOD thread, but it was quickly buried with other posts.. 

There’s no forecast or modelling that suggests such a scenario but as I’ve mentioned in my previous posts, unforecast events do occasionally happen.   However, it’s a very very outside chance & I wouldn’t be staying up the night for such a hope……..

For our, more northern areas of the region, expect cold ish days, some sunshine & some cloud cover with more notable cold nights.  I think that’s going to be the main talking point for us next week, overnight minima.

Being a more sheltered region from N/NNW airflows, I’m not sure the daytime temperatures for many of us will be too much different to the week just gone.

Edited January 14 by AWD

[Nights King]

1 hour ago, AWD said:

The way I think it’ll play out midweek, when taking everything into a blend of a median, is something like the below;

Each line being the northern extent of any PPN.

Red line - 45% chance and currently the most favoured.

Blue line - 25% chance

Green line - 15% chance

Yellow line - 10% chance 

5% chance - The weather is never 100% guaranteed and sometimes does the unexpected, so I will always leave a 5% chance for it to do something totally unmodelled like blast up to Scotland etc.  Never can we forecast the weather with 100% certainty.

Also, small caveat is I’m not 100% convinced that any PPN that may reach southern coastal counties/IOW is certain to fall as snow and not rain.  There’s more to forecasting snow than just the 850hpa temps and some modelling does play around with the idea of less cold sectors being mixed in with this LP, less favourable DP’s etc so definitely a lot to watch for, for those on the South Coast.

Finally, our channel Island members in here MAY be our snowiest parts of the region next week.  Not often we say that!!

As much as I want the yellow line or the 5 % option I think it is pretty good assesment.

I might be tempted to move green line a touch further inland though.

I was kind of hoping the models would just all sink it into france and be done with it so we didnt cling on to this false hope for days in advance! 

[AWD]

1 minute ago, Nights King said:

I was kind of hoping the models would just all sink it into france and be done with it so we didnt cling on to this false hope for days in advance! 

Some modelling does, hence the Blue line & second favourite option.  Enjoy a few frosts next week mate.  

[Nights King]

2 minutes ago, AWD said:

Some modelling does, hence the Blue line & second favourite option.  Enjoy a few frosts next week mate.  

Last few winters have been pitiful here. Cornwal and devon have acrued more snow days in recent years than us 

End of this year I am moving back up to top of mendips to mullenders hill again but not much has happened there either lately.

[jtay]

Absolutely lovely out now. 

Cup of tea on the patio and I can actually feel the warm of the Sun. Even got the sunnies on.

[lettice]

Lovely day today, bright sunny spells, clear blue sky.
6.5c

[matt111]

No sun here although it is brighter than it was yesterday. Can see blue sky in the distance to the north. 

[Somerset girl]

The sun has just broken through the grey gloom :-)! Hooray . Forecast for next few days looks rather grand too. Sun wise anyway . 

Went out for a couple of hours and the car thermometer showed 8C ( OK not precise) but it was pleasant in the sun .

Its clouding over now but its bright so it's made a nice day really. 

 

[Nights King]

Temperature seems to have peaked here today at 4.4c 

Clear and sunny finally 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

5 hours ago, noggin said:

I said that I wouldn’t get carried away/fooled/taken in any more…..BUT the current scenario for Wednesday/Thursday is looking good!

Wait til tonight when it's 48 hours out. Start getting excited then. If it still shows in the morning then we are onto full on ramp mode. I'm highly interested but not quite taken in yet!!

[festivalking]

Sun was out this morning temperature rocketed to 7.1c. Gloom has returned back to 3.8c. 

[Rich_Clements]

Afternoon All,

 

Rather pleasant in the sunshine 6c here at the moment a big difference compared to yesterday.

[HurricaneSteve]

looked at my phone, and it said "raining"

looked at the window... yes, it is !! - temp at 4c

That weak front, still got a little moisture on it

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Where is this freezing cold air we are meant ot be in?! It's 6c out there!! Too warm for snow ...

[AWD]

1 minute ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Where is this freezing cold air we are meant ot be in?! It's 6c out there!! Too warm for snow ...

Was always suggested to be less cold this weekend.  Was surprised at how cold yesterday was IMBY, as I thought it would be similar to how today has planned out.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

49 minutes ago, jtay said:

Absolutely lovely out now. 

Cup of tea on the patio and I can actually feel the warm of the Sun. Even got the sunnies on.

Picture ... ain't catching me out there gardening until the 1st March!

2 minutes ago, AWD said:

Was always suggested to be less cold this weekend.  Was surprised at how cold yesterday was IMBY, as I thought it would be similar to how today has planned out.

Oh I saw people say cold coming Sunday. Whens it coming now?

I agree about yesterdya. Not sure how it managed 2c!

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Picture ... ain't catching me out there gardening until the 1st March!

Oh I saw people say cold coming Sunday. Whens it coming now?

I agree about yesterdya. Not sure how it managed 2c!

Scotland and up norf starts becoming colder on Sunday but we are way dooooown south and won’t really get colder (comparatively speaking) until Monday evening.  I note you aren’t too far inland from the South Coast, so relatively sheltered from N/NNW winds.  It maybe that temps for you only drop by a degree or two during the day for you anyway.  Night minima’s (with the exception of Tuesday night) should be lower than what you’ve experienced over the past few nights though so you may get an elusive frost or two.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Right I've just been in the mad thread. no one is ramping it. Most models still showing south. I'm now firmly back in the it isn't happening camp.

[nettie]

It's been a nice day here the sun did put in an appearance .  Off out this evening  going to the Hawk conservancy  for their Winter Woodland Lights evening  . Can't wait get to see displays with the owls.  

[matt111]

The suns out now. Finally 

[jtay]

40 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Picture ... ain't catching me out there gardening until the 1st March!

Oh I saw people say cold coming Sunday. Whens it coming now?

I agree about yesterdya. Not sure how it managed 2c!

Even got my shorts on.

Just tied in the climbing roses, cut the hops back and had a general tidy up. I was meant to shift more soil today, but CBA. I'm hoping I can do 30 mins in the evenings soon, after work.

[Glenosnow]

Afternoon all.......beautiful end to the day here and 7°C.

Will it or won't it......just put us out of our misery.....either keep all the snow well south and into France or give us a nice little snow event.......I guess it's not looking great.....gonna try and keep my glass half full....several more weeks of winter left.......maybe we'll get another shot before winter is out.....

At least we'll have a nice largely sunny week ....bar the odd surprise.

[Deep Channel low]

Oh bum, 12's gfs puts the snow in the channel, last hope is fading. I will be still watching the radar Wednesday praying.

[noggin]

1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Wait til tonight when it's 48 hours out. Start getting excited then. If it still shows in the morning then we are onto full on ramp mode. I'm highly interested but not quite taken in yet!!

I am in awe of your self-restraint!