SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

[clark3r]

Unless we see a shift in models this evening any chance of snow tomorrow or from this cold snap seems the have gone! It seems our region is a very hard location to get a decent snow event these days! 

[VillagePlank]

All to still play for.

Firstly, it's not uncommon for low pressure to correct to a more northerly trajectory than the models show. Secondly, the jet stream is acting as a kind of block on the northerly trajectory. This is persistently moving further east allowing the low to travel further north, as shown in the last few model runs.

Timing is key, here. Will the JS move east quick enough to allow the LP to move further North?

[Kentspur]

Anyone got any flakes falling shame I'm not in Gravesend atm in London?

[Gowon]

13 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Unless we see a shift in models this evening any chance of snow tomorrow or from this cold snap seems the have gone! It seems our region is a very hard location to get a decent snow event these days! 

Those showers showing up this far south this morning weren't picked up by any models, so I'm hopeful they've got it wrong for tomorrow as well 

[Sparky68]

1 hour ago, MAF said:

radar showing snow down to Milton Keynes. didn't think it would get that far south. maybe london might see some this morning

Hope not dont mind being snowed in at home , not at work though 

[tight isobar]

19 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Unless we see a shift in models this evening any chance of snow tomorrow or from this cold snap seems the have gone! It seems our region is a very hard location to get a decent snow event these days! 

It’s now unfortunately a dud! All models are wide of the margin perhaps for the extreme south and very short lived !

[snowblind]

A bit too much cloud around for a really cold night here. Only down to -3.1 in the end.

Obviously the cloud isn't thick enough to produce any snow just thick enough to stop the temperature falling too far.

[pages]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

It’s now unfortunately a dud! All models are wide of the margin perhaps for the extreme south and very short lived !

I am not sure about. The snow currently coming down around Liverpool/Manchester was forecast for Glasgow this suggest the short wave is actually much further south than forecast (150miles) this should result in the low to south west phasing with it early/further west and potentially being dragged slightly further north.

 

[snowblind]

12 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Anyone got any flakes falling shame I'm not in Gravesend atm in London?

I am under those pink blobs to the west of Colchester but nothing is falling from the sky.

[Snowangel-MK]

Oh look  
Heading south east and in all the places that the models didn’t show having any - just shows what can happen when the cold air arrives

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

It’s now unfortunately a dud! All models are wide of the margin perhaps for the extreme south and very short lived !

Somewhat oddly / unusual- we now have a better chance region wide nxt 36/48 from forming shower activity around the Cheshire gap.. the Synoptics are ripe for showers getting well inland and heading further south. There’s even an outside chance of more organized snow bands developing… so something to watch …

[Sparky68]

Zoom in on Tilbrook @Snowangel-MK

[Hotspur62]

Only got down to -4.7 here which was surprising as it was already -4.1 @ 11pm so didn’t fall much further.Still coldest night of winter though and maybe Thursday night will give us our final chance to get to elusive -5 from this current cold spell before milder weather comes in.

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, pages said:

I am not sure about. The snow currently coming down around Liverpool/Manchester was forecast for Glasgow this suggest the short wave is actually much further south than forecast (150miles) this should result in the low to south west phasing with it early/further west and potentially being dragged slightly further north.

 

Now that would be something. @ phasing with occlusions- but it’s highly unlikely .

[Donna3397]

It’s -5 here this morning.  So a tad in the chilly side

[Donna3397]

There do seem to be a few showers popping up to the east, Chelmsford looks like it’s getting something. 

[lewis028]

Still keeping an eye on the low down south, although it does seem very unlikely now all models are siding with a southward shift, we have seen lows modelled shift north/south a further 50/75 miles during a nowcasting situation. This should come into view later tonight. If i was on the south coast, i'd still be feeling optimistic...

 

 

[tight isobar]

Ya can’t beat sunrise in winter @ under true arctic inflow  @ currently - 4:5  

Edited January 16 by tight isobar

[Floatylight]

Well all that sliding south.

Very unexpected...

Didn't expect that atall.

Let's see if it makes it here?

I would expect the low tomorrow to do the same though...

[SnowBorder]

9 minutes ago, lewis028 said:

Still keeping an eye on the low down south, although it does seem very unlikely now all models are siding with a southward shift, we have seen lows modelled shift north/south a further 50/75 miles during a nowcasting situation. This should come into view later tonight. If i was on the south coast, i'd still be feeling optimistic...

 

 

Accuweather phone app still suggesting light snow here for Wednesday morning. 

Just now, SnowBorder said:

Accuweather phone app still suggesting light snow here for Wednesday morning. 

60% probability of precipitation 

[Floatylight]

Just now, SnowBorder said:

Accuweather phone app still suggesting light snow here for Wednesday morning. 

I think it would be from the pivot if anything.

But the fact that low today is dropping this far south is making me think that everything else will.

[3cats]

Just ventured out to de-ice the car and it’s saying -7 where it’s been stood on the drive all night

Giving up on any hope on snow landing here tomorrow in Redhill. 

[Kentspur]

11 minutes ago, SnowBorder said:

Accuweather phone app still suggesting light snow here for Wednesday morning. 

60% probability of precipitation 

Mine says 10% sleet

[SnowBorder]

Just now, Kentspur said:

Mine says 10% sleet

 

[Kentspur]

2 minutes ago, SnowBorder said:

The lone ranger will it prevail