Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[steveinsussex]

16 minutes ago, Gowon said:

Which airmass will win out on this one - I  think the warm air from the SW

All I see is a kangaroo

[Ali1977]

Day 9 mean looks like it’ll be ok, control isn’t so good yet 

[snowspotter]

Great upgrade that on the 0z with the high early on further north and east allowing more of an easterly early on which means colder start . Even a possibility of some early snow flurries in the SE later part of the weekend . Overall the picture looks the same to me . Early Sandi high - easterly . High intensifies over UK drifts a bit south then looks like the whole pattern wants to move high pressure to Greenland. Overall excellent IMHO

[winterof79]

48 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Stunning really

Can't quite make that date out

I'll borrow Scott Ingham glasses

Edited January 3 by winterof79

[Rob 79812010]

Blimey, best charts for years, bbc and met and netweather forecasts all positive, so much potential. Shouldn't we be more excited?? Or are we hedging our bets as we've 'seen it all before'. Thing is, we have seen it all before with the models but often find the forecasters don't buy into it. They are now!!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Some cracking gem ensembles this morning. Not the worse place to be in on January the 3rd I say.

[nick sussex]

Same old story ! These cold pools are so sensitive to minor changes in the position and orientation of the high .

Still not possible at this point to forecast if there’s going to be any decent convection off the North Sea .

The ECM brought a chance for the far se , the GFS 06 hrs has some flurries for the east .

Hopefully we can get a resolution to this tonight as it’s now around T96 hrs .

 

[Wilxy]

12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 9 mean looks like it’ll be ok, control isn’t so good yet 

Looks great to me! Settled and colder!

[bluearmy]

End of gfs op is between 10 and 15% across the three ens suites 

not small enough to be discounted but certainly far from favoured 

[Ali1977]

Awesome mean at day 11

[BarometerCat]

Had been watching this initial colder period from the 30th  via GFS mostly (6z!), has been nice to watch a period of change unfold.

later frames get a bit messy but around this date has been fairly consistent with incoming high pressure, colder temps and a change from rain etc..   keeping it simple, high pressure more likely to be dry!  (just from my POV, not that knowledgeable)

 

enjoy the models, very interesting outputs at the mo.   Back to lurking for me! 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

End of gfs op is between 10 and 15% across the three ens suites 

not small enough to be discounted but certainly far from favoured 

I standby previous comments.

This is our best chance of proper deep upper cold uppers  in January for a good while..

It's all about retrogression now,and how the pieces fall..

Prior to that some dry and cold weather to enjoy...

 

[northwestsnow]

Brutal cold sweeping into Ukraine 

-20 seen..

FWIW if we do see ESE winds ......

[January Snowstorm]

What I see as favourite is the high pressure meandering close to our shores for the whole month!! I think there's a real risk that retrogression won't happen and we stay dry. Hope I'm wrong. The Met Office seem to see this as an option.

Nothing factual, just from years ofi watching charts and how they behave. I think to be hanging on charts at 240hrs is folly, no matter what ensembles say. We have seen backtracks before with 100% agreement on Greenland heights. Just highlighting it as a risk right now

There's a reason the Met go 7 days on their outlooks. It's not that their mildies, but they look for accuracy 

Edited January 3 by January Snowstorm

[northwestsnow]

BBC monthly looks cold !!

Frost - freezing fog - snow showers get a mention..

Looking forward to the 12zs ..

[winterof79]

17 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

What I see as favourite is the high pressure meandering close to our shores for the whole month!! I think there's a real risk that retrogression won't happen and we stay dry. Hope I'm wrong. The Met Office seem to see this as an option.

Nothing factual, just from years ofi watching charts and how they behave. I think to be hanging on charts at 240hrs is folly, no matter what ensembles say. We have seen backtracks before with 100% agreement on Greenland heights. Just highlighting it as a risk right now

You are quite correct regarding high pressure systems hanging around for what seems like an eternity,however,the Pole and background signals were probably not conducive to what is being forecast now

Edited January 3 by winterof79

[Continental Climate]

11 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

What I see as favourite is the high pressure meandering close to our shores for the whole month!! I think there's a real risk that retrogression won't happen and we stay dry. Hope I'm wrong. The Met Office seem to see this as an option.

Nothing factual, just from years ofi watching charts and how they behave. I think to be hanging on charts at 240hrs is folly, no matter what ensembles say. We have seen backtracks before with 100% agreement on Greenland heights. Just highlighting it as a risk right now

There's a reason the Met go 7 days on their outlooks. It's not that their mildies, but they look for accuracy 

If I was a betting man I would agree with what you say. We will get a British Isles high that will just sit around on top of us for at least two weeks. That will take us to around the 22nd-23rd. Final week of January most likely a slowly sinking high unfortunately. Hopefully squeeze a few flakes in the east this weekend. I just want some dry weather to be honest, freezing fog would be nice. Deep cold via a greenie or griceland high I'm just not seeing it. I will be happy with dry and cold, just no more rain please. 

[northwestsnow]

FWIW BBC / Exeter look to be on rhe same page ref 1st half of Jan

Members here expressing doubt / scepticism are entitled to do so,absolutely.. 

As it stands it looks good,of course that might change ...

[Jason M]

13 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

What I see as favourite is the high pressure meandering close to our shores for the whole month!! I think there's a real risk that retrogression won't happen and we stay dry. Hope I'm wrong. The Met Office seem to see this as an option.

Nothing factual, just from years ofi watching charts and how they behave. I think to be hanging on charts at 240hrs is folly, no matter what ensembles say. We have seen backtracks before with 100% agreement on Greenland heights. Just highlighting it as a risk right now

There's a reason the Met go 7 days on their outlooks. It's not that their mildies, but they look for accuracy 

100% agree with this. UK highs can really stick around and whilst not unknown to end with a cold spell they often just eventually gently sink away SE. Also, like you I'm surprised at how much interest is being shown in day 10-15 charts. Whole ensemble suites can flip over in a day! I suspect its a measure of where we are after last winter and this season so far.

My current guess based on experience is that this high will eventually allow in a punchy northerly but that it will be a 2 day affair and nothing long lasting. There remains a possibility of a dusting of snow in the far south around day 6. Doubt it will amount to anything as pressure is forecast to be very high so a bone dry easterly more likely but if something did fall it could stay on the ground a long time.

Outlook at the surface is cold for next week or so, but I'm not seeing much snow potential.

 

[winterof79]

6 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

If I was a betting man I would agree with what you say. We will get a British Isles high that will just sit around on top of us for at least two weeks. That will take us to around the 22nd-23rd. Final week of January most likely a slowly sinking high unfortunately. Hopefully squeeze a few flakes in the east this weekend. I just want some dry weather to be honest, freezing fog would be nice. Deep cold via a greenie or griceland high I'm just not seeing it. I will be happy with dry and cold, just no more rain please. 

Place your bets

Monday 8 January to – Sunday 14 January

Colder than average. Less settled later

Next week looks like staying colder than average. High pressure presence should mean a lot of dry weather across the UK, at least through the first half of the week, but does mean widespread and sharp frosts with risks of persistent areas of fog and freezing fog. Any showers will be few and far between but could be wintry anywhere they occur.

The second half of the week has a lot more uncertainty. There are signs that high pressure will retrogress into the Atlantic, which could allow frontal systems to slide around its eastern side and move southwards across the UK. These should bring a band or two of rain or wintry precipitation southwards with winds increasing, followed by sleet or snow showers, especially for the northern UK, as winds probably go north-westerly for a day or two.

Details are hard to pin down at this range, but aside from a temporary rise as fronts approach, temperatures should remain below average.

Take a look at the following week on the website

[MJB]

Can't complain, I wonder if January is getting us ready for February  

[Man With Beard]

Regulars on here know I'm not prone to overstatement but this really is the most wintry T300 ECM mean chart I have ever seen. Incredible signal at that range. I had to check about 10 times to make sure it was the mean and not an outlier member!

[John88B]

Judging by the positive met office and BBC etc updates and despite some model volatility I can't help feeling we're on the cusp of a long overdue, proper January cold spell.

I expect the models to positively reflect this in the coming days

[Mike Poole]

Just now, John88B said:

Judging by the positive met office and BBC etc updates and despite some model volatility I can't help feeling we're on the cusp of a long overdue, proper January cold spell.

I expect the models to positively reflect this in the coming days

Some of us think they already reflect this, but hey ho!

[John88B]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Some of us think they already reflect this, but hey ho!

Sorry Mike, I should have said to even more positively reflect this