Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[offerman]

7 hours ago, Uncertainty said:

Cansips, for January 2024, 10 months ago:

 

Cansips, June 2023 

Cansips, today:

What a phenomenal forecast. The seasonals have absolutely smashed it. It’s easy for them in a 2019/2020 (eg mega zonal) paradigm but predicting blocking that far out is hard. 
 

The 46 has also done pretty well after some early wobbles.

Peitao Pengs analogues have also done really well

The cfs is and always has been garbage, here’s an effort from august that it persisted  with up until a few weeks ago. All this has done is throw doubt and apprehension into the mix. Fortunately, most of us were able to see past it. 

 

So there you have it. The long awaited early 2024 blocking is upon us. Weather forecasting is hard, but if you listen to the signals, experts,  telecons (EQBO, late Nino moving modoki, weak strat, mjo p1, fading iod, major +EAMT) and the models (if they show a really strong, consistent picture) then it is possible to go beyond ‘Fantasy Island’ and into the future. Read back through this thread and the winter preview thread. We called it. Great job folks.
 

And so it begins…

I hope you don’t mind, but I thought I would actually rotate one of these charts to focus on our part of the world. As so many times it’s always focusing on America and we actually live in the UK. 
Just makes it a little bit clearer to me, at least when I can see it directly how it affects our shores and not over in America.

I am definitely being swayed more towards the cold by the consistency of each model run that comes out, pointing more towards the cold as opposed to any southern high-pressure blocking ruining this

.first we have a temporary smaller high-pressure over the northern north Sea, bringing in temporary, quite cold air from the east for a couple of days before that moderates and gets Above, but we may see surface cold, lingering before what looks like potentially cold north, north east 2010 type looking charts, bringing inwhat looks like very cold air. still early days and things can change as has happened in the past, but consensus is definitely pointing now more towards deep, cold lasting for at least a week possibly longer.

exciting times, but will be even better to see this verified with those type of charts at day three or four for me. 

 

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

47 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS would still be amazing , starting with a little battleground snow too

Too mild for rain in the South

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

44 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Morning!

GFS has the first serious snow activity in the south courtesy of a channel low at T276:

 

A bit borderline perhaps ?

[Ali1977]

Day 10 mean is excellent again, the control about to get brutal cold from the east. Some ENS Perbs have the cold arriving early like the GEM. Over to the ECM .

And - the mean is an upgrade from the 18z

Edited January 4 by Ali1977

[Mark wheeler]

Gem not to shabby.

[nick sussex]

The models still playing around with the depth of cold re the easterly .

A relatively new factor now is how much energy disrupts ese from the troughing in the Atlantic .

As this disrupts it helps to nudge the high a bit further north and helps to advert colder pools westwards .

Originally the high edged south . 

As for the Greenland high just a word about size . Bigger isn’t always better ! 

These cross polar flows look great on the charts but you’re better off with the smaller Omega block .

The good thing about these types of blocks is you’re unlikely to end up with a west based negative NAO. Also the sourcing of the flow is more ne .

Anyway we await the ECM , hopefully no dramas !

Edited January 4 by nick sussex

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Let’s see if we can get the spikes bigger for the 8th-9th Jan!

Edited January 4 by prolongedSnowLover

[KTtom]

It was mentioned by a poster last night but didnt really get much of attention but the Atlantic lows to the south west are slowly beginning to be modeled with more and more influence day by day. In my opinion,this is good news, given we get the cold in place then we may see some good snowfall somewhere as opposed to days on days of dry frosty weather we had pre christmas and on occassions last year...

Gfs day 12...

Edited January 4 by KTtom

[Chesil View]

All purely just for fun at that range but a nice channel low scenario developing at the back end of the 00z gfs.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Just now, KTtom said:

It was mentioned by a poster last night but didnt really get much of attention but the Atlantic lows to the south west are slowly beginning to be modeled with more and more influence day by day. In my opinion,this is good news, given we get the cold in place then we may see some good snowfall somewhere as opposed to days on days of dry frosty weather we had pre christmas and on occassions last year...

 

I’m just hoping we get the cold Arctic air in place as it may not reach all areas at this rate!!

[KTtom]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

I’m just hoping we get the cold Arctic air in place as it may not reach all areas at this rate!!

Yea, that is the risk. Its would be a race against time as to which gets to the UK first..at least it wouldnt be boring.

[Eagle Eye]

Casual 1.8 feet of snow in the SW out on GFS 00Z fantasy land. 

In all seriousness, later into the run is still some of the best looking means you're going to get for that range. That is a fairly strong signal. 850's around 6 degrees below average and a mean of - 6 degree 850's around day 10/11 on the mean is a very good signal showing up. The lining up of a very weak vortex potentially reflecting downwards and supportive AAM-MJO wave interactions has led to a potentially good pattern coming up. 

Edited January 4 by Eagle Eye

[Battleground Snow]

High is still shifting north run on run.

ECM 12z v 00z

[chris55]

Lovely runs again this morning. Get the thermals ready, and hopefully the sledges will be dusted off in the next few weeks as well :) .

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Lovely runs again this morning. Get the thermals ready, and hopefully the sledges will be dusted off in the next few weeks as well .

Will it be deep enough for the ?

[carinthian]

14 hours ago, carinthian said:

Definitely, a upgrade in the models so far this evening with cold getting in the shorter term. Maybe now latching onto a quicker evolution to cold ❄.

 C

 

Morning all. Looks like the UKMO chart below brings in the colder air southwestwards across The British Isles on Saturday quite a bit quicker than shown this time yesterday. Thinking more upgrades to come from todays later outputs?  Longer term, nice looking Mid- winter charts on offer. However,  for the time being think we need to concentrate on keeping the high north for the next 144 hours or so and then hopefully see a prolonged cold spell develop. Snow charts from GFS shown this morning ( 50cm on Dartmoor) that far out , nay impossible to verify but looks exciting.

Looking good though for cold winter fans. You deserve a lucky break !

C

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

What happened to the ECM run ?

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

What happened to the ECM run ?

We’re waiting for the all important day 9 . No dramas so far !

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

What happened to the ECM run ?

Yes.  Worrying.. I can't view as on phone..silence when a run is running is usually a red flag   

[John88B]

Good solid runs again this morning,  the cold is on its way and could well be long lasting.

A January well below the average cet to break the endless run of above average months would be great.

Certainly looking very possible and that would hopefully bring with it multiple opportunities for decent snowfall

[winterof79]

7 hours ago, Ice Day said:

I'm not sure I've seen a chart as bizarre as this before!?  The whole PV shifted to the Asia/Europe side.

 

Slower evolution, but let's get real, it's absolutely sensational!
 

1978 what followed was epic

[TSNWK]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Yes.  Worrying.. I can't view as on phone..silence when a run is running is usually a red flag   

Bur saying this... it was far more calm and informative in here this morning  

[Battleground Snow]

192 and 216

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ukmo lovely run..at 168 it can either go left to greenland or right to scandi..both look very possible!

[nick sussex]

Day 9 okay . Need to box the high in now so it can force the low se . We don’t want heights escaping to the west nw .