Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Kentspur]

Well it gets better the GFS and later on CFS ensembles now bring back the risk of a major SSW!

[joggs]

33 minutes ago, Afrayedknot said:

Easterly with a North Easterly is Deffo gonna happen .Into next week with SW LP bumping into Cold air mass . We are on a cusp of a very cold Winter for at least 3 weeks .

Hope you're right. It's a long way out to be that sure. 

[BlizzardOfoz]

8 minutes ago, joggs said:

Hope you're right. It's a long way out to be that sure. 

I am always right, but I get Turned down by Expert Daniel on here .

Told him the truth about the cold spell in 2010 that the breakdown will be on Boxing day ..he was not having any of it ..made me look a fool ..but I was right .Still lurking though and love the banter in here and down dwellers and up dwellers.

Cold spell definitely for 3 weeks ...Snow 100% going g to happen IMBY 

.

[TallPaul]

1 hour ago, Louthweather said:

Me too! There’s no straight road to snow in the UK. Just long and winding roads

With potholes as an extra complication...

[TallPaul]

1 hour ago, The Enforcer said:

Please not GEFS18z P29:

Cold rain and more flooding.

Absolutely no! Although on an ordinary day we all normally dream of that 'ONE' stand-out P29, P12, etc, etc...

[Battleground Snow]

Spot the odd one out at 96,

Might just be low enough heights on the ukmo and gem for snow showers to set up in the extreme  south 

Edited January 5 by Battleground Snow

[Battleground Snow]

By 144 the differences are even more magnified,

Gem wants to slice the tropospheric polar vortex into 2 very early on

 

Edited January 5 by Battleground Snow

[Battleground Snow]

Gfs actually works out better for us by day 10 in terms of cold, but some crazy profile on the gem

[ICE COLD]

Wow the blocking is really starting to downgrade to the NW . Be afraid be very afraid . Do not like the trend on the last few runs . Even the means are getting weaker . Let’s hope this is just a wobble .

[Penguin16]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Wow the blocking is really starting to downgrade to the NW . Be afraid be very afraid . Do not like the trend on the last few runs . Even the means are getting weaker . Let’s hope this is just a wobble .

It’s hitting the proverbial fan already?

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Wow the blocking is really starting to downgrade to the NW . Be afraid be very afraid . Do not like the trend on the last few runs . Even the means are getting weaker . Let’s hope this is just a wobble .

We don't need mega blocking to deliver cold synoptics,

having the jet stream far south will prevent the Atlantic from coming back in,

However Ukmo probably the most robust at 168 in terms of blocking to the north west.

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

We don't need mega blocking to deliver cold synoptics,

having the jet stream far south will prevent the Atlantic from coming back in,

However Ukmo probably the most robust at 168 in terms of blocking to the north west.

Yer just seen UKMO it looks the best at 168 . Just getting the jitters mate lol . ECM hopefully steady my nerves  

[January Snowstorm]

Some block that is!!

[January Snowstorm]

Gem, block also failing!! Some turnaround this morning, the cold spell is on the ropes

[January Snowstorm]

Control out to 216hrs. A lot slower to establish heights over Greenland. Too early to call but also looks like failing. Some turnaround this is,

 

[lassie23]

Morning output always seems to be rubbish and then improves by the evening

[nick sussex]

3 hours ago, Kentspur said:

Well it gets better the GFS and later on CFS ensembles now bring back the risk of a major SSW!

Earlier though there’s a large spread which is bizarre . Normally the strat forecasts are a lot less volatile at that range .

As for the GFS 00hrs that looks like it’s gone a bit AWOL with the PV from hell to the nw .

 

[Kasim Awan]

7 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Control out to 216hrs. A lot slower to establish heights over Greenland. Too early to call but also looks like failing. Some turnaround this is,

 

It's so borderline could go either way.

[Weather-history]

UKMO 0z has sub -10hpa over the far S of England. Last occasion this happened must have been the St Patrick's weekend of 2018?

 

[KTtom]

1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Wow the blocking is really starting to downgrade to the NW . Be afraid be very afraid . Do not like the trend on the last few runs . Even the means are getting weaker . Let’s hope this is just a wobble .

Yes, last 2 gfs runs are trending in the wrong diection...2 things evident in relation to the 'main event' is its still over 10 days away and longjevity is decreasing run by run. Wonder if early next week will end up being the main event!

Edited January 5 by KTtom

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well this wasn’t unexpected. It never seemed to be getting any closer and that’s never a good sign.

Two GFS ensemble suites in a row downgrading is also not a good sign.

I maintain that we needed that proper split of the SPV because relying on trop teleconnections is absolutely fraught with peril at mid-longer range.

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Weather-history said:

UKMO 0z has sub -10hpa over the far S of England. Last occasion this happened must have been the St Patrick's weekend of 2018?

 

February 2021.

[Weather-history]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

February 2021.

That's right

 

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Well this wasn’t unexpected. It never seemed to be getting any closer and that’s never a good sign.

Two GFS ensemble suites in a row downgrading is also not a good sign.

I maintain that we needed that proper split of the SPV because relying on trop teleconnections is absolutely fraught with peril at mid-longer range.

Yes, whilst people will say its still game on, what's the panic, and right now they are right, still a decent cold spell on the cards, and your never going to pull one (verification) from the right end of the spread.

 

but its the next few runs after that are key, you can't afford the high to keep on losing latitude.

Edited January 5 by feb1991blizzard

[nick sussex]

Before things turn ugly in here this morning ! 

Lets bear in mind the timeframes involved . If the outputs stopped at day ten re the GFS you’d think that was a decent chart .

As for the GEM that’s admittedly not good at day ten but there’s going to be more changes .

Let’s just wait and see what the ECM has on offer .