Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[winterof79]

ECM probably slower with any retrogression this run if it does

[Quantock]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You can predict the next run based on the previous few - as i said, there's no problem with the GEFS suite at all, but will we be still saying that in 2 days?

Well we could say it’s gone wrong now -save all the waiting

Sorry to be a bit flippant but we all have the same charts to look at.  I expect the same discussions happen in the MetO so no wonder they keep their powder dry before making statements about any extreme weather.

[Malarky]

12 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Ecm not interested in the Easterly. Has everything a nudge South with the decent uppers barely clipping the far South

I’m looking at the chart… and your words… and it just doesn’t make sense…

 

The high is far enough north, there’s a gentle easterly, and there’s -8s over Norfolk and the midlands.

[January Snowstorm]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Ok got it, if the output is suggesting cold ignore it. save looking at all the science and output I guess. 

 

 

Pretty much and follow the Met Office. They get accused of being mildies all the time. They looking fairly spot on now....

Anyway over to ECM, my experience also tells me things can over correct so the cold chance is certainly not gone, just fragile for now

[winterof79]

Easterly feed still going Wednesday

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM 168 looks ready for it!the low West of greenland needs to behave,because the push looks good enough!

Edited January 5 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Kasim Awan]

11 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

So its all going wrong is your stance that's how you are coming across.

The chance of a potent NE blast is a bit lower now :).

[iowpompeylee]

36 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, another upgrade this morning in the shorter term from UKMO.  Colder flow sourced from that intense cold pool out east making inroads to SE England  during tomorrow. Think further upgrades are possible  out to 96t, especially for the south with chance of light snow from any troughs that form in that flow.

C

This is quite possibly the first time us south coast southerners have a chip in the game   it’s been a long time. Let’s hope the short term upgrades cone to fruition 

[winterof79]

A much slower evolution/retrogression to our NW is my bet and an eventual influx of cold from our NE with ever increasing chance of snow.

I believe the output was too quick yesterday and caused a little excitement 

[TSNWK]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

ECM 168 looks ready for it!

Need a good 192… need a good ecm otherwise this place will get ugly this morning…. 

[That ECM]

7 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Pretty much and follow the Met Office. They get accused of being mildies all the time. They looking fairly spot on now....

Anyway over to ECM, my experience also tells me things can over correct so the cold chance is certainly not gone, just fragile for now

So more runs needed because it’s not at T144 then? It ok to say, I don’t know. One gfs run and it’s all gone wrong it’s as daft as T276 and saying the beast is inbound.

Edited January 5 by That ECM

[RJBingham]

26 minutes ago, That ECM said:

The stakes have gone up and whatever the outcome the only thing I can confidently forecast is there will be a queue of “told you so” people.

 

Can you blame them? if people accuse them of being negative doom mongering spoilsports, for suggesting caution, then they're entitled to a bit of  “told you so” .  

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

A much slower evolution/retrogression to our NW is my bet and an eventual influx of cold from our NE with ever increasing chance of snow.

I believe the output was too quick yesterday and caused a little excitement 

Looks like ECM still saying quick cold.

[TSNWK]

ECM day 8 is ok…. 

[winterof79]

And there we are.

No rush to run down the field said Daddy bull to his son

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM evolution this morning is pretty much identical to the 12z so far. Not much else to say apart from the fact that the output will swing around and there isn’t much agreement over how the Arctic profile pans out. Worth noting that whilst we saw a lot of awesome day 10 charts, they often involved different solutions in the Arctic. No need to worry just yet.

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Can you blame them? if people accuse them of being negative doom mongering spoilsports, for suggesting caution, then they're entitled to a bit of  “told you so” .  

Not suggesting caution, saying it always goes wrong. That’s not caution.

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Can you blame them? if people accuse them of being negative doom mongering spoilsports, for suggesting caution, then they're entitled to a bit of  “told you so” .  

It’s not a good look though… kicking a man when their down… 

Edited January 5 by TSNWK

[Lukesluckybunch]

Lovely stuff 192!.

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

ECM day 8 is ok…. 

Yea..I won't be expecting at epic day 9..but a strong holding high spreading into NE USA..let's see

[That ECM]

The gfs wasn’t the best, the ecm says it’s all ok. 
 

The only sensible thing to do is wait.

 

[joggs]

Although,the signal for a decent Greeny block has weakened,the UKMO and ECM still look good, obviously poor from GFS.

The guy from meto who said be wary of Greenland high modeling could be right.

Anyway, there's always wobbles and it's drying out and becoming colder. Alot can happen,for better or worse.

[IDO]

I hate how bad the models are with Greenland highs. Nearly every time, they mess around from D7 to 12, so I generally do not take them seriously until around D6. You hope this one is the one, but deep down, you worry that the models cannot model HLB'ing well due to overplaying heights. It's not a concern until Sunday, so we hope models (GFS & GEM) return to the Greenland Block nirvana of yesterday's earlier runs.

The London 850s ens:

So, two cold spells likely, either side of a brief, less cold hiatus as the pack shuffles. Hopefully, we can get some interest from the second cold shot, even though the chance of a longer, deeper cold spell is less confident on this morning's runs, especially for the south (see GEM).

[winterof79]

Citalapram back on shelf.The day before you know what......

Edited January 5 by winterof79
spell check

[January Snowstorm]

The Ecm is very good. Indeed its colder than last night, as in gets the cold in faster!! Maybe the ship can be steadied yet!

[joggs]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Citalapram back on shelf

Not for us in middle slice lol.