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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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MattH
MattH

Hi. I just wanted to create a post from an educational perspective and also be a point of reference regarding the importance of the GSDM and the AAM on the medium and long term. Hopefully, anyone

MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Good God...its been my dad's funeral today..just a small service for close family as he didn't want a big fuss! This may seen insensitive me posting weather charts at such a time..but I will tell you

snowice
snowice

Premature ecmjulcation.

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Liam Burge Rising Star

Liam Burge

Posted
  • Location: Bristol // Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bristol // Bridgwater
Posted

Wow. Just WOW! That would be an amazing snow storm for parts of America, along with setting us up for a perfect intercept of the PV.

image.thumb.png.79d50f5a54505cdef3096d3df14140c3.png

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted

Control picking up the convection now over Ireland!! Might look like snow grains but that could give quite the fall around my area

image.thumb.png.7639476be024f27d4c915410706ee972.png

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Control picking up the convection now over Ireland!! Might look like snow grains but that could give quite the fall around my area

image.thumb.png.7639476be024f27d4c915410706ee972.png

If the Gfs model is picking that up at range, could be some significant activity when it actually happens

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John88B Community Regular

John88B

Posted
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
Posted
4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gem 204 🤩

Cold air flooding south fast 

gemnh-0-204 (3).png

Even to my untrained eye that's an absolute beaut. If the weekend brings constant charts like this I would expect major upgrades for cold in the met office outlook come the start of next week👍

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
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Posted (edited)

Look at this from ukmo for just 3 days time!! How has that cold pool just grown and deepened over just 12hours!!

image.thumb.png.2d30c260e3780d737fa354f0c7daa1cc.png

Edited by January Snowstorm
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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Look at this from ukmo for just 3 days time!! How has that cold pool just grown and deepened over just 12hours!!

Probably further upgrades to come too,

Going to be some quick changes to the TV forecasts for Monday I imagine 

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Liam Burge Rising Star

Liam Burge

Posted
  • Location: Bristol // Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bristol // Bridgwater
Posted

We'll have to wait for ensembles, but I would say that the GFS is definitely on board with the idea now. 

image.thumb.png.65e19580f286237f006121598a684abb.png

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo 168,

All good this morning, ecm to cap it all off now. 

ukmonh-0-168 (17).png

Awesome, 2010 yet again!

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Liam Burge Rising Star

Liam Burge

Posted
  • Location: Bristol // Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bristol // Bridgwater
Posted

This GFS run may just be the best chart of the season (currently). Would be bitterly cold under that air, would struggle to get much above 1-2c during the day, and hard frosts at night. Looks like the heights are re-establishing themselves too.

image.thumb.png.dad2458a7612e2f6ef96b3d63827f9ef.png

image.thumb.png.f0f0a593b05a66800defd019c25ff427.png

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

All looking solid at T240 this morning on the GFS and GEM:

IMG_8315.thumb.png.510d8ab78f88905cb4d103ceaaa8b692.pngIMG_8314.thumb.png.b38fbcd58c961193dfa015a24435a5c9.png

These are excellent for the vicinity of the UK, bit of margin for error, there is quite a difference in the placement of the block and the extent the ridge is cross polar (on GEM) or not (GFS).  But if we get the vortex plunge in angle and southern extent, as I say, the margin for error is good.  

I like these this morning, need to see a good one from ECM later - and also (more so) the EPS, which were a total mess last evening.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
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Posted

Pure filth from the GFS this morning.

Still too far out to bank on, especially with disagreements between models over the polar regions.

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
19 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Look at this from ukmo for just 3 days time!! How has that cold pool just grown and deepened over just 12hours!!

image.thumb.png.2d30c260e3780d737fa354f0c7daa1cc.png

Look how widespread -12s are, not out of the question we get to -13/-14 by then, north sea snow machine would be firing right up 

00_72_uk_850_temperature.png

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

Fair to say there is a lot of volatility in the output from run to run at the moment. This mornings output is awesome. 😄

IMG_0793.png

Edited by That ECM
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
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Posted

Boooooooom. What a night of upgrades 😍😍😍 now back to sleep 😬 Start the ramping coldies ⛄️🥶

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Continental Climate Aficionado

Continental Climate

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
Posted
5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Look how widespread -12s are, not out of the question we get to -13/-14 by then, north sea snow machine would be firing right up 

00_72_uk_850_temperature.png

-12 is showing and if it upgrades further to say -13/14 it's only 2 or 3 degrees shy from the beast from the east. Who'd have thought that 2 days ago when it was showing-7/8s. Quite remarkable really. Anything past next tuesday is JFF and whilst nice to look and speculate on shouldn't be taken seriously. This could be an event for all you daarn saaarf. Oh and of course you Irish lot 😆.  

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Not a bad mean to wake up to.😄

IMG_0797.png

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
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Posted

Morning all 

Some of you are going to be delirious by the time any snow arrives and will be too tired to go out and play in it ! 

It’s a more respectable 7 am here in Cyprus !

Anyhow no major dramas this morning so that’s bizarre in itself ! 

Earlier we see the easterly cold pool uncertainty hopefully reaching a conclusion .

The main models so far show a minimum  -10 850s moving west .

It is though a brief window where there could be some snow showers , current risk mainly towards the east and se . Also for our Irish friends , towards the south . The UKMO in particular looks best there .

Hopefully the ECM will come on board as it seemed the least interested last night .

As for the Greenland blocking that still looks on track but detail at this stage looks difficult given the chopping and changing over the Polar regions .

We need to ensure the block is orientated in a favourable  manner and located close enough for enough forcing to pull the coldest air south . That’s still the bit with more uncertainty . 

Anyway overall a nice start to the day .

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

A flip in the “right” direction. 😄

IMG_0799.png

IMG_0800.png

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
39 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Look how widespread -12s are, not out of the question we get to -13/-14 by then, north sea snow machine would be firing right up 

00_72_uk_850_temperature.png

Need low enough pressure and a stronger flow really.

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