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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

GFS 0z came pretty close to a reversal in the strat, T252, 2m/s:

IMG_8318.thumb.png.ca30dda4cc5dbddb0c4deceedd73344d.png

And there is just a split there reaching up to 10hPa.  

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Georgina Aficionado

Georgina

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Derbyshire
Posted
56 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Pure filth from the GFS this morning.

Still too far out to bank on, especially with disagreements between models over the polar regions.

Good Morning 

The disagreements showing over the last few days are these not due to the SSW ? 
And the models trying to get to grips with it ? 
Thus creating inconsistency around them ? 
 

I get a little confused as some members are posting it’s great then the next day they are posting they saw the writing on the wall days ago 🫣

Wouldn’t it be wiser to just watch & wait if there’s a ssw forming as I’m sure it affects all the reliability of the models . 
I do understand this is a model output group and some are just saying what the charts show . But sometimes the wording that supports them is very confusing 

 

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Garthvader Enthusiast

Garthvader

Posted
  • Location: Wigan,North west England 38m asl
  • Location: Wigan,North west England 38m asl
Posted
1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

Look at this from ukmo for just 3 days time!! How has that cold pool just grown and deepened over just 12hours!!

image.thumb.png.2d30c260e3780d737fa354f0c7daa1cc.png

Bank!!!

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Georgina said:

Good Morning 

The disagreements showing over the last few days are these not due to the SSW ? 
And the models trying to get to grips with it ? 
Thus creating inconsistency around them ? 
 

I get a little confused as some members are posting it’s great then the next day they are posting they saw the writing on the wall days ago 🫣

Wouldn’t it be wiser to just watch & wait if there’s a ssw forming as I’m sure it affects all the reliability of the models . 
I do understand this is a model output group and some are just saying what the charts show . But sometimes the wording that supports them is very confusing 

 

Can only really comment on what’s showing at the time. Anything else is educated guesswork.

At present it looks like the main event (Starting  around D9) is going to be a 3-4 day event…in which hopefully many get to see some snow. The trend seems to be to turn the AO/NAO less negative fairly quickly post main event…albeit that could change.

Had we got the big split SSW then I think January would have been off the scale memorable. It is what it is.

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, Georgina said:

Good Morning 

The disagreements showing over the last few days are these not due to the SSW ? 
And the models trying to get to grips with it ? 
Thus creating inconsistency around them ? 
 

I get a little confused as some members are posting it’s great then the next day they are posting they saw the writing on the wall days ago 🫣

Wouldn’t it be wiser to just watch & wait if there’s a ssw forming as I’m sure it affects all the reliability of the models . 
I do understand this is a model output group and some are just saying what the charts show . But sometimes the wording that supports them is very confusing 

 

It’s difficult to be pragmatic about something you’re passionate about.😄 Bit like watching your team play a sport and at different points in the game either drawing losing and winning. Difficult to sit and say, I’ll let my emotions go at the end of the game. 
 

I understand this can cause confusion and would urge people to get an understanding of the output as it easier than waiting for people to give their opinion. 
 

FWIW. I’m more than happy this morning so far-now come on ecm deliver.😄😄

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

The ECM still the least interested with the deeper cold pool . It doesn’t even agree with the UKMO at T48 hrs !

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
28 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Need low enough pressure and a stronger flow really.

Having said that, the models do show a few light scattered snow showers across England so maybe a patchy dusting in places and a little more for some south eastern spots.

UKV:

IMG_3479.jpeg

IMG_3480.jpeg

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM still the least interested with the deeper cold pool . It doesn’t even agree with the UKMO at T48 hrs !

Fax more like ecm? I would say it is, thoughts?

IMG_0805.gif

IMG_0806.gif

IMG_0808.gif

IMG_0807.gif

Edited by That ECM
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Malarky Aficionado

Malarky

Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham
Posted
3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Having said that, the models do show a few light scattered snow showers across England so maybe a patchy dusting in places and a little more for some south eastern spots.

UKV:

IMG_3479.jpeg

IMG_3480.jpeg

We’re in the game @sheikhy

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andy989 Rising Star

andy989

Posted
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
Posted (edited)

Janingham 15th is now 10 days away from today. Let’s hope it counts down, so far it has been,  to @Scott Ingham’s credit. 

Edited by andy989
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Fax more like ecm? I would say it is, thoughts?

IMG_0805.gif

IMG_0806.gif

IMG_0808.gif

IMG_0807.gif

I’m baffled ! 

The ECM was originally designed as a more day 3 and onwards model . We need to wait till the 6 hour steps show up later to see if it still takes at least a smaller cold pool further north and is just a bit quicker.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

The ECM looks like it’s going to throw a downer on proceedings . Not liking its day 7 at all .

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM looks like it’s going to throw a downer on proceedings . Not liking its day 7 at all .

If it can improve on last nights day 7/8 then I think we should take that for now and hope for another correction back tonight…

Edited by TSNWK
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

And the volatility continues.😩🤣 nhp not overly different but…………….

IMG_0793.png

IMG_0811.png

IMG_0810.png

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted

Morning all, another upgrade from UKMO in the shorter term. Tuesday sees the cold pool more extensive on this run for Tues with sub -10c uppers further north across England and Wales.

 The extended looks primed for a shot from the NE  to develop ?

C

UKMHDOPUK00_72_2.png

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

If it can improve on last nights day 7/8 then I think we should take that for now and hope for another correction back tonight…

It hasn’t , it’s awful at day 8 .  Trouble started brewing at day 6 .

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
Just now, nick sussex said:

It hasn’t , it’s awful at day 8 .  Trouble started brewing at day 6 .

Beyond T120 is fi 

IMG_0816.png

IMG_0815.png

IMG_0814.gif

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Garthvader Enthusiast

Garthvader

Posted
  • Location: Wigan,North west England 38m asl
  • Location: Wigan,North west England 38m asl
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It hasn’t , it’s awful at day 8 .  Trouble started brewing at day 6 .

Wondering why gfs and ecm has the high further west but the mo have it situated more over greenland?

Edited by Garthvader
Correction
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

It hasn’t , it’s awful at day 8 .  Trouble started brewing at day 6 .

Dam…. Without ecm we are in bother.  We can live with ecm flopping after day 8 but if the writing is on the wall at ecm day 6 then  gfs and ukm 168 is currently not creditable in my view.

 

rolls over and sulks 😊

Edited by TSNWK
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
Just now, TSNWK said:

Dam…. Without ecm we are in bother and gfs and ukm 168 is currently not creditable in my view.

The enes at T120 plus may give an indication to gfs and ukmo . 👍 

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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted

So, we end up with a southerly at just day 8 on ECM 🤔 I think gfs may have a boost in popularity again!

 

 

ECMOPEU00_192_1-4.png

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Popular Post
Posted

No idea how but the ECM still gets there

IMG_4366.thumb.png.98464b837b931f8a19dcc9f35ac69381.png

Lets wait for the ensembles before crying “wobble”. 

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

No idea how but the ECM still gets there

IMG_4366.thumb.png.98464b837b931f8a19dcc9f35ac69381.png

Lets wait for the ensembles before crying “wobble”. 

But we all know that ecm flaps around at day 9 and 10 the issue is around day 6 where ecm is darn consistent.. 

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