Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Ali1977]

Here we go again, but not things are moving closer these runs are becoming ever more important - we need more upgrades for that Greeny block

[That ECM]

10 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Sorry part 2. We see a westcirculation.  

This is EC at day 15. Is this a reflection of MJO phase 3 or stratosphere? Or both? 

Not disagreeing with you. Gfs not dissimilar. Day 15 though. 

[Polar Maritime]

Still going up..

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Widespread -10 uppers coming into the southeast monday..on icon!

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Widespread -10 uppers coming into the southeast monday..on icon!

I’ll wave to the flakes on my walk.

Edited January 6 by That ECM

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Widespread -10 uppers coming into the southeast monday..on icon!

i can't look forward to snow potential on monday because the ecm disagrees - how crazy is that

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I’ll wave to the flakes on my walk.

What do you reckon..possible dusting for the southeast?

[Mike Poole]

Just unpacking the ECM ensembles, I thought it would be interesting to track the representative members of the 4 clusters T120-T168 through the next few days (when there is only one cluster) to see how they evolve, so here’s the earlier clusters:

Cluster 1 (at T168, T192, T216, T240):

Cluster 2:

Cluster 3:

Cluster 4:

Putting the UK to one side for this discussion, concentrating on Greenland.  Recall, the op is in cluster 3.  However, what’s interesting is cluster 3 goes on to develop heights into Greenland quite well, it is cluster 1 that is the one that really struggles.  Cluster 4 had already made the connection through to the Pacific side at T168 and is massively different (and a bit similar to GEM run).  Cluster 2 goes on to develop and Atlantic ridge into Greenland that looks well strong enough to hold what’s not coming in off the Atlantic!

Putting cluster 4 to one side, for the others what seems to be important is how the low over the USA, Canada develops and in particular orientates, e.g. positively tilted by T240 on cluster 1, negatively on cluster2.

Edited January 6 by Mike Poole

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Gowon said:

i can't look forward to snow potential on monday because the ecm disagrees - how crazy is that

Best model so I'm always told

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Still going up..

 

And by this won’t be factored in to any of the FI charts will it not, therefore ignore and concentrate on the medium range?? 

[That ECM]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

What do you reckon..possible dusting for the southeast?

Yes a possibility. Maybe a little more than that. Rochester for example but ecm says no at the moment so going to be t12 and less I guess.

[keithlucky]

19 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Sorry part 2. We see a westcirculation.  

This is EC at day 15. Is this a reflection of MJO phase 3 or stratosphere? Or both? 

Strong stratospheric Warming underway ,driving cold air southwards ,westwards linking up high pressure over Greenland to HP over Canada.Becoming very cold from North.This graph shows a strong warming underway.

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Yes a possibility. Maybe a little more than that. Rochester for example but ecm says no at the moment so going to be t12 and less I guess.

i love these situation cos sometimes you end up with more then what was predicted. shame the ecm can't agree yet - i just want it confirmed so i can look forward to it and make preparations at work

Edited January 6 by Gowon
added more info

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

What do you reckon..possible dusting for the southeast?

The FAX charts look mainly dry unfortunately. Even the Met Office site only shows cloud cover but no precipitation!

[Ali1977]

Heights a little better into Greenland at T102 compared to the last run 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Slightly more pressure heading towards greenland..on the ICON

[johnholmes]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

And by this won’t be factored in to any of the FI charts will it not, therefore ignore and concentrate on the medium range?? 

 

19 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Still going up..

 

Tends to support the idea of 'real' cold around 14 th, using the system I played around with 10-12 years ago. Only about 50% success though!

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

using the system I played around with

Have you got time to go into more detail?

[Lukesluckybunch]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Heights a little better into Greenland at T102 compared to the last run 

Very similar..at day 5 with the orientation of the high..but more importantly looks better over the pole and Canada!

[cyclonic happiness]

8 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The FAX charts look mainly dry unfortunately. Even the Met Office site only shows cloud cover but no precipitation!

Good stuff, we'll still be able to enjoy a vast amount of freezing fog, inversions, rime/hoar frosts.  That will make it look even better than a fall of snow, and with so many places flooded, we'll get the chance to go skating on frozen meadows and such :-)    It'll be great, even without snow

[Alexis]

39 minutes ago, DavidS said:

The ECM isn’t an outlier within its ensembles and tracks the mean out to around the 12th/13th Jan, however at that point it does start to drag its heels. Plenty of scatter on the ensembles from day 8 with a good cluster, including the control keeping things cold. Much still to be resolved.

Not an outlier strictly speaking, but at the top end.

[winterof79]

GFS Anoms moyenne 240z very nice 

 

[winterof79]

27 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Still going up..

 

Surely that has ramifications into February.

[Nick F]

15 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The FAX charts look mainly dry unfortunately. Even the Met Office site only shows cloud cover but no precipitation!

Looks like there could be a chance of snow showers Monday evening / night, as a cold pool moves west and some wind convergence develops to provide lift.

3 different models

 

[Captain Shortwave]

ICON shows mostly light snow pushing south west through the Thames Estuary during Monday, this becomes more widespread during Monday night as the winds veer more easterly and the atmosphere is a little more unstable, and it is this period where a dusting could anywhere south of the Wash (Very little will settle during the day unless the precipitation is heavier). 
Apart from getting agreement on the depth of cold that could push into the south on Monday, there isn’t much point looking too much into precipitation, as many can add to this, snow can crop up unexpectedly (For instance in Great Yarmouth in January 2013 we saw a couple of inches of snow that came from a single shower that formed in the southern North Sea that was dragged onshore by the approaching Atlantic trough that was never picked up by the models and as such the weather warning was issued during the event itself). So let’s see what happens and of course next weekend onwards also poses a lot of interest.

Edited January 6 by Captain Shortwave