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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Disappointing ECM at day 6.  Heights into Greenland are not as high as the other models and that shortwave to the west of Iceland causing issues as are the heights over Iberia.

Looks better at 168

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted

Oh here we go..at 168..nice little block forming,and it looks to have reinforcement up the western side..

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Looks better at 168

IMG_2479.png

Yea..the pattern should hold now

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

T168 all 4. 😄 never going to be the same but on the same page from a nhp pov.👍

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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted (edited)

Anyone understand atmospheric mechanics?  

How can it go from +0°C 850hpas at 144hrs

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24hrs later go to -7°C  850hpas

image.thumb.png.6b88eaf7cb6e3c05d405bed5ad613ead.png

 

With no apparent change in airmass? 

Edited by Weather-history
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Not a bad 192..but with no significant blocking it looks shortlived

Imo ecm is a big improvement this morning. 

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Imo ecm is a big improvement this morning. 

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Indeed it is - but it is a mess of shortwaves and wedges.  Let's hope for a cleaner evolution on the 12z.  Potential for a snow event at day 10 in the south?

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Imo ecm is a big improvement this morning. 

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But more heights to our south and cold not getting south as much…

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

But more heights to our south and cold not getting south as much…

Day 10 im hoping will be good..as we finally see that low move east/ne..the low out of the eastern seaboard is a negative,too bulgy..that will stop any decent blocking I think..😣

Edited by Lukesluckybunch
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
Just now, mulzy said:

Indeed it is - but it is a mess of shortwaves and wedges.  Let's hope for a cleaner evolution on the 12z.  Potential for a snow event at day 10 in the south?

Made the mistake yesterday evening at looking at T192 plus charts in micro detail. I don’t usually do that. The difference between yesterday ecm and today’s is why I shouldn’t. 
 

As I say a good morning in seeing the ecm T168.👍

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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted (edited)

The most overused phrase on the forum... Great ECM day 10 chart 😨😁 thats  now pushed out to the 17th. Uppers still not paticularly cold in the south..snow risk increasing further north.

ECMOPEU00_240_1-17.png

Edited by KTtom
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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

The most overused phrase on the forum... Great day 10 chart 😨😁 thats the 17th uppers still not paticularly cold in the south..snow risk increasing further north.

ECMOPEU00_240_1-17.png

Exactly keeping it real.

Edited by Lukesluckybunch
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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, KTtom said:

The most overused phrase on the forum... Great ECM day 10 chart 😨😁 thats  now pushed out to the 17th. Uppers still not paticularly cold in the south..snow risk increasing further north.

ECMOPEU00_240_1-17.png

I expected colder uppers..looking at day 10..again hopefully a outlier between 144-192..I wonder if after day 10 we should look northeast..a long shot at the moment but possible heights building behind the trough

Edited by Lukesluckybunch
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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

Heights to our south remain a big issue for me here, it means any cold airmass tracking south will struggle, with the way our HP cell is being squeezed it’s hard to see how we can rid ourselves of them, seen this many times before where we have good hemispheric Synoptics in general but whilst heights to our south remain high any sustained cold is a real pain in the 🍑 

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted
5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

But more heights to our south and cold not getting south as much…

Morning all from a snowy Salzburgerland , temp now dropping over here after a week or two of mildish weather . For some sort of consistency I have attached the 168t chart from UKMO . Um boys and girls make your forecast based at that chart ? Think inevitably there is going to be a clash or air masses, but where will this zone end up ? How far can the Arctic Front get south or will it be retarded coming up against the rise in pressure over France ? or will there be a middle ground ? Of course it could end up a clean cut sweep from cold to mild or cold wins out ! Fascinatingly , interesting winter charts to unfold. Its going to be a ride this week but for you lot back in blighty enjoy the colder drier spell for much of this working week , Still to far out to see what evolves by next weekend. Meanwhile the establishment of The Italian Low to produce some much need fresh snow to most of the Alps. To prolong any cold spell we all need its circulation to stay in put for much longer than some of the models show this morning. Enjoy your weekend and some may see a flurry or two.

C

UKMHDOPEU00_168_2.png

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
9 minutes ago, KTtom said:

The most overused phrase on the forum... Great ECM day 10 chart 😨😁 thats  now pushed out to the 17th. Uppers still not paticularly cold in the south..snow risk increasing further north.

ECMOPEU00_240_1-17.png

The reason we need to wait imo is why is ecm 850’s more likely than gem or gfs? I’m not being critical of what you are saying just pointing out that we don’t know. 👍

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

The reason we need to wait imo is why is ecm 850’s more likely than gem or gfs? I’m not being critical of what you are saying just pointing out that we don’t know. 👍

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Gem is excellent run..the difference is the jet heads a lot further south..ecm can't manage to do that,them heights are the issue I think..

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Hence why we don’t know. 👍

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Popular Post
Posted

The NAEFS (GEFS & GEPS) mean is great at 192.

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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted
2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

The reason we need to wait imo is why is ecm 850’s more likely than gem or gfs? I’m not being critical of what you are saying just pointing out that we don’t know. 👍

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Totally agree, was just pointing out what ECM showed, same as I did with my first post of the morning with gfs..not saying either is correct.. but it does illustrate the returning cold for southern half of the UK is on a knife edge👍

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Popular Post
Posted

Fantastic 00z MOGREPS! mean falling off rapidly towards day 7.

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Hence why we don’t know. 👍

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Looking at the 192 ecm..we can work on that,if we can get a trigger low forming to drop through iceland area..that could advect the high northwest at day 9..I wouldnt rule that out..one too look at next run

Edited by Lukesluckybunch
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