2023 confirmed as world's warmest year on record

[danm]

2023 confirmed as world's hottest year on record

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Climate records tumbled "like dominoes" in 2023, with temperatures far above any recorded level.

 

Edited January 16 by Jo Farrow
reflecting WMO language warmest/hottest

[reef]

Moved to the climate section as its more relevant to there than winter discussion.

Thanks

[jtay]

Caught the end of politics live when it was announced. The MP in blue scoffed and said 'we had snow in London yesterday'

This is what we're dealing with. 

[WYorksWeather]

There's also plenty of people who love to quote the odd places that are achieving cold records, but what you find is that they're so, so rare compared to the warm records, and usually of a lesser degree. For example, some Scandinavian countries have recorded December 2023 as one of the top five coldest months in their respective records. However, when you look at the broader scale, the year as a whole has been warmer than average virtually everywhere. In fact, I saw an extraordinary stat, that in the year to November, around 15-20% of the Earth's surface was having a record-warm year, and nowhere has had a record-cold year.

You can always point to a few cold spots - Northern Europe, the South Pacific, and so on. But anyone who takes a look at that map and thinks there's any sort of question about what is going on temperature-wise is clutching at straws.

[WYorksWeather]

Berkeley Earth's annual report is out. 2023 is estimated at 1.54C above pre-industrial. To see this from even one of the global temperature monitoring groups is a significant milestone.

Global Temperature Report for 2023 - Berkeley Earth

BERKELEYEARTH.ORG

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2023 was the warmest year on Earth since direct observations began, and the first year to exceed 1.5 °C above our 1850-1900 average.

[Methuselah]

On 09/01/2024 at 18:34, jtay said:

Caught the end of politics live when it was announced. The MP in blue scoffed and said 'we had snow in London yesterday'

This is what we're dealing with. 

But what about would-be MPs? It's just the bit where Nick Ferrari interviews Tice about the views of some of his candidates that's interesting: Climate Change, Covid-19, the war in Ukraine. . . are all scams or conspiracies:

 

[jtay]

3 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

But what about would-be MPs? It's just the bit where Nick Ferrari interviews Tice about the views of some of his candidates that's interesting: Climate Change, Covid-19, the war in Ukraine. . . are all scams or conspiracies:

 

Both him and his Mrs are grifters, so that's their job. 

Unfortunately a lot of our dim-witted fellow Brits lap it up.

[alexisj9]

On 09/01/2024 at 21:08, WYorksWeather said:

There's also plenty of people who love to quote the odd places that are achieving cold records, but what you find is that they're so, so rare compared to the warm records, and usually of a lesser degree. For example, some Scandinavian countries have recorded December 2023 as one of the top five coldest months in their respective records. However, when you look at the broader scale, the year as a whole has been warmer than average virtually everywhere. In fact, I saw an extraordinary stat, that in the year to November, around 15-20% of the Earth's surface was having a record-warm year, and nowhere has had a record-cold year.

You can always point to a few cold spots - Northern Europe, the South Pacific, and so on. But anyone who takes a look at that map and thinks there's any sort of question about what is going on temperature-wise is clutching at straws.

What many people fail to see, is the cold record are also a part of the chaos cause by agw. Systems are getting stuck, so you get record cold, record rain, record warmth and record dry, all at the same time in different areas, depending what is stuck where.

[WYorksWeather]

5 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

What many people fail to see, is the cold record are also a part of the chaos cause by agw. Systems are getting stuck, so you get record cold, record rain, record warmth and record dry, all at the same time in different areas, depending what is stuck where.

I would caution that this is disputed. Andrew Dessler (climate scientist) gave the following explanation over on his blog:

Quote

 

Here are the lines:

• The orange line is a theoretical calculation of the frequency with which we expect cold records to occur in a stable climate (i.e., one not warming) as the length of the record gets longer,
• the blue line shows the number of cold records in a climate models that has a stable climate (a so-called control run),
• the green line shows the actual number of records in the observations,
• the red line shows the number of records in a climate model that accurately simulates the warming of the last 150 years (models with historical forcing).

It is clear that cold records are occurring a lot less frequently than they would in a stable climate, which is expected since our climate is not stable.

 

In other words, you'd expect less cold records to be set over time, and that is what we see.

Very much recommend The Climate Brink (by Zeke Hausfather and Andrew Dessler) for detailed climate articles - usually very well-written.

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/

[Jo Farrow]

WMO confirms that 2023 smashes global temperature record

WMO.INT

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The annual average global temperature approached 1.5° Celsius above pre-industrial levels – symbolic because the Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit the long-term temperature increase...

 

and https://reliefweb.int/report/world/wmo-confirms-2023-smashes-global-temperature-record-enarruzh

• El Niño combines with climate change to fuel heat in latter half of 2023
• 2024 expected to be possibly even warmer
• Record heat accompanied by huge socioeconomic impacts

 

[MattStoke]

On 09/01/2024 at 18:34, jtay said:

Caught the end of politics live when it was announced. The MP in blue scoffed and said 'we had snow in London yesterday'

This is what we're dealing with. 

Typical Tory.

[LetItSnow!]

On 16/01/2024 at 10:43, Jo Farrow said:

 

• El Niño combines with climate change to fuel heat in latter half of 2023

 

Makes you wonder what effects the next Super El Niño will have... That's if we don't break the record of 1983, 1997 and 2015. Dread to think the impacts!

[WYorksWeather]

3 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

Makes you wonder what effects the next Super El Niño will have... That's if we don't break the record of 1983, 1997 and 2015. Dread to think the impacts!

I think the next Super Nino will be the 1.5C is definitely gone moment. The next one is probably unlikely before the late 2020s or early 2030s, and based on current trends, we'd have another 0.1C or 0.2C of warming by then. Assuming 2024 is similar to 2023 in temperature, so around 1.5C, we'd expect a drop to 1.3C or 1.4C above pre-industrial in the interim, but then if the next El Nino takes us well above to 1.7C or something, that'll be it.

Of course the worst-case as far as the next Super El Nino would be if it is delayed into the 2030s, and warming this year is at the upper end of expectations and already near 1.7C or something, in which case a hypothetical Super El Nino in the early or mid 2030s might well take us close to finding out what a 2C world looks like for the first time.

I don't think the latter option is likely, it's a worst case, but since James Hansen and others seem to think it's a possibility, it's worth mentioning. Hansen doesn't have a huge amount of support from his scientific colleagues in this, but I would be loathe to dismiss his scenario out of hand just because it's pessimistic. It's arguable that optimism bias is what has got us into this position in the first place.

[Methuselah]

And it's only going to get worse -- the maths isn't that hard. 

But I did hear that an alternative definition of 'fossil fuel' is what Joe Biden eats for breakfast. 

 

Edited January 25 by Methuselah

[Methuselah]

And this is interesting; the climate models have got it wrong: the globe is warming faster than predicted! 

PS: it may be YouTube, but these are respected climate scientists. . .

[SollyOlly]

  @Methuselah Interesting, thanks for sharing. I'll watch that this evening with a glass of something...!

I wonder if anybody will pop up and say "we shouldn't be comparing the temperature with the pre-industrial climate, that was anomalously cold, the proper reference period is the last 20 years" or some such...

[Fen Wolf]

2024 will be even warmer 

[SollyOlly]

Yes, it could indeed be so...

[Methuselah]

And, with 2024 looking like being even warmer, and with SSTs being irrefutably linked to hurricane formation, maybe it's time for a Cat 6?