Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Zero Visibility]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

V v v v nice

As true a scorpion you could ask for!

[MattStoke]

10 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Just a word of warning - GEM snow charts are absolutely useless. 

I’m surprised it isn’t showing us snowbound today!

All snow charts are useless at this range but it's nice to dream.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ukmo extended

[Lampostwatcher]

Now I can I see why Angus deacon 

Bangs on about disruptive snow from midweek is a possibility 

Ukmo 12z 168 ❄🌨

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

The UKMO at 168 is a beaut.

 

Could be seeing double digit minima for areas with abundant snow cover

[Battleground Snow]

156 is worth a post too,

Probably a rough snow line up to the M4 on that

[Captain Shortwave]

Just a quick note on Monday, looking much better compared to previous days.

UKMO day 4

 

 

Yesterdays day 5

 

The cold air is much more potent, enough for more frequent showers on windward coasts.

[Downburst]

12z GFS has produced this daughter low for mid next week that stops the wedge and heights, its plausible, but wasn't really on the 06z run or the latest ECM. Still in of itself something like this might dump a lot of snow, but I don't believe it yet. As others have said this run is just trying it's best in a complex environment and FI is absolutely 5 days max as is always the case with cold.

 

[That ECM]

19 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T168 ukmo will be interesting. 

It was then.

[northwestsnow]

GEFS mean 144

 

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,Great run up to this possible snow event my favourite is the German model Icon first low heading into France with northeasterly winds driving the snow around while GFS not that much different then reluctant to bring much milder air in to the mix.

[Biggin]

38 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Big snow event south of England

Nah

[TheJCInsights]

1 minute ago, Biggin said:

Nah

Superb analysis  

[Duane S.]

13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

My theory, is that it is down to the Canadian warming in early December which caused such a significant weakness in the strat vortex, that it didn’t form properly, and that has allowed the amplified trop patterns to do things they wouldn’t normally be able to do, such as propagate splits up to 10hPa.  

Yep, I really think that has played a huge part Mike, just as you’ve put it. The strat vortex hasn’t been able to strengthen unabated through November/ December as it normally would. I think the E-QBO has played (and still is playing) its part as well. 

[Liam J]

14 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Who cares it’s completely wrong. 

GFS is not alone and I’m not saying they’re right or wrong but the GEM also wants to bring the Atlantic in with a steep thermal gradient & powerful jet stream out of the USA… Anyway this is a long way off & too far away to be worrying about….

Cold with snow chances most of next week  

GFS 

       

GEM 

         

 

 

Edited January 11 by Liam J

[Biggin]

2 minutes ago, TheJCInsights said:

Superb analysis  

I shoulda said he was wrong ..

[Allseasons-Si]

Guess what!!!

the gfs is a mild outlier *AGAIN*

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEFS mean 144

 

Nice, there are lots of ENS showing snow midlands south - the 06z had about 3!! 

[tight isobar]

Let’s get this party started on the 12>shorts- at the eyed on snow progs… it’s - the extended don’t  look to shabby either!

Edited January 11 by tight isobar

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Biggin said:

I shoulda said he was wrong ..

Nah

[northwestsnow]

Mean looks very cold at 162

[Tim Bland]

GEM looks great for most (snow wise )end of next week   with repeated fronts starting from weds in the south

[Tamara]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

850s, nice, we can live with that!  Puts us in a great place for the chaos when the block does fail.

Two things:

The energy distribution on UKMO is much more separated upstream than GFS and hence tendency towards a more split flow/ sub tropical jet is emphasised.

Also the -ve inertia (-ve zonal wind pockets) at higher latitudes is modelled much more and the amplification inertia within the extra tropics has less low AAM bias than GFS - which piles all into the polar jet and ends up with the scribble in the extended period that it does. It sees a brick wall but models/simulates attempting to drive straight through it anyway.

[Pembroke Dangler]

2 minutes ago, Tamara said:

Two things:

The energy distribution on UKMO is much more separated upstream than GFS and hence tendency towards a more split flow/ sub tropical jet is emphasised.

Also the -ve inertia (-ve zonal wind pockets) at higher latitudes is modelled much more and the amplification inertia within the extra tropics has less low AAM bias than GFS - which piles all into the polar jet and ends up with the scribble in the extended period that it does. It sees a brick wall but models/simulates attempting to drive straight through it anyway.

Gfs has this nailed

[TallPaul]

18 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Very very nice UKMO 168

Fidget spinner if ever I saw one...