Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Drifter]

Pretty remarkable collapse this morning - all the models so far reduce the cold spell to a 2/3 day toppler then the raging westerlies and flooding are back. Pathetic  

 

[Kasim Awan]

7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Not your. Fault, it was looking like a locked in cold-spell for next two weeks at least, with repeated southerly tracking lows and chance of snow for many 

What's happened last few days that by Friday the Atlantic back in control and back to wind and rain crud

It never did - look to our South over the Azores and over the US. The reason this cold spell has gone wrong is evident right now. The Iberian high is far too strong which pulls the high away from trying to move into Greenland.

This limits the Greenland high resulting in the cold easterly being too far North. Then the Atlantic can quickly return.

This all likely to be a result of not enough SSW forcing in place as I discussed with @Cheshire Freeze. To conclude you can discuss the finer details of telleconnections but until the basics are in place such as strong SSW, low pressure into Iberia, optimal setup over the US, it's unlikely that a significant or sustained cold spell will materialise.

 

Edited January 13 by Kasim Awan

[Continental Climate]

6 minutes ago, WolfeEire said:

That rapid GFS op warmup on Friday is an extreme outlier. This is the GEFS for Dublin

 

Yeah outlier at the end but all other models have collapsed as well and brought the breakdown in even quicker. Shame really. 

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Continental Climate said:

Yeah outlier at the end but all other models have collapsed as well and brought the breakdown in even quicker. Shame really. 

Gfs Op been leading the way for a long time don't forget which your not allowed to say in here it's a swear word.

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, booferking said:

Gfs Op been leading the way for a long time don't forget which your not allowed to say in here it's a swear word.

It absolutely has. Very evident for around 3 weeks now.

[Continental Climate]

I hope I can get some snow on Tuesday. Currently I'm on for 2-5cms but who knows. 

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS - blink and you'll miss it affair now.

 

[Harveyslugger]

This is the biggest cold spell fail I've ever seen.how can it go from looking good a few days ago to this

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

I hope I can get some snow on Tuesday. Currently I'm on for 2-5cms but who knows. 

I'm not sure why we are all so adamant that snowzilla 2010 will suddenly appear out of nowhere via troughs etc. That ship is sailing now. As far as I see it the only low level areas away from Scotland / Northern Ireland in with a chance of significant snow from this cold spell are inland parts of NW England / NW Midlands. This may change.

Edited January 13 by Kasim Awan

[WolfeEire]

Just going through the ensembles and there is around 5 members of the 30 that entertain the idea of a slider low type battleground with the Atlantic system next Saturday. Exhibit A below. It doesn't have much support but maybe worthwhile seeing if support for that scenario increases. 

 

 

Edited January 13 by WolfeEire

[mulzy]

Maybe random noise but the 0z GEFS seems to indicate more of an event on Wednesday for the south.  Let's see what the other suites say but the 18z MOGREPS gave it a complete blank.

Edited January 13 by mulzy

[Harveyslugger]

This might be wrong but.Since the Greenland heights are weaker than anticipated a few days ago, especially for midweek.surely the track of the low will be further north right?

[joggs]

Ouch...

Not good output for us coldies for extending the upcoming cold snap.

NA goes frigid and we pay the consequences as per....

I was prepared to give it time but from the end of the upcoming week it appears it's all over 

On to the next chase...

[lassie23]

what a waste of time chasing cold in the UK is, you all need a new hobby until heat chasing in the summer which is more likely to come off lol

[nick sussex]

The models barring timing differences and the odd ensemble member which survives the carnage bring a rather depressing outlook towards next weekend .

The Canadian troughing ejects at rapid speed , flattens the pattern and very little energy heading se .

I don’t think anyone saw this rate of collapse . 

The ECM to come but it would be close to a miracle if that didn’t follow the other models .

 

[mountain shadow]

26 minutes ago, booferking said:

Gfs Op been leading the way for a long time don't forget which your not allowed to say in here it's a swear word.

Probably right by default though as it always ramps up the PV.

The biggest failure for me is the GWO/EAMT/MT teleconnections which really sucked me in to a proper snow cold spell of a couple of weeks or more.

 

[nick sussex]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

Probably right by default though as it always ramps up the PV.

The biggest failure for me is the GWO/EAMT/MT teleconnections which really sucked me in to a proper snow cold spell of a couple of weeks or more.

 

Even the UKMO were duped .

As for the EC 46 I always thought it was tripe especially when forecasting colder conditions . 

That changes just as quickly as the rest of the NWP .

Just too much inherent chaos in the atmosphere . 

[KTtom]

42 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Pretty remarkable collapse this morning - all the models so far reduce the cold spell to a 2/3 day toppler then the raging westerlies and flooding are back. Pathetic  

 

Just thinking as I was running through the mocels..this has to go down as one of the biggest wild goose chases ever...what feels like an eternity for a brief powder puff northerly which a few years ago wouldnt have raised eyebrows let alone talked up  for 3 weeks previous. You expect some to over egg it in here but cant remember the met getting something so wrong in their extended forecast (obviously things can still change in that part).This time next week solid agreement of gales and rain..I bet the longjevity of that is well forecast!... onto Feb...

Edited January 13 by KTtom

[Continental Climate]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The models barring timing differences and the odd ensemble member which survives the carnage bring a rather depressing outlook towards next weekend .

The Canadian troughing ejects at rapid speed , flattens the pattern and very little energy heading se .

I don’t think anyone saw this rate of collapse . 

The ECM to come but it would be close to a miracle if that didn’t follow the other models .

 

That's what has shocked me the most nick the rate of collapse. I thought 22nd/23rd but not this. The collapse is actually being brought forward. 18th/19th on some models. 3/4 day cold snap. 

[nick sussex]

Just now, Continental Climate said:

That's what has shocked me the most nick the rate of collapse. I thought 22nd/23rd but not this. The collapse is actually being brought forward. 18th/19th on some models. 3/4 day cold snap. 

Yes I think most thought we’d get to around that time .

Once the models latch onto a progressive signal it normally ends this way . The signal is even stronger today with as you said some ending the excitement by the 18/19 . I use that term with some sarcasm !

I’d prefer the GEM solution which keeps the rain and muck further away .

This is when the ECM now delivers the parting of the Red Sea and throws a morsel of hope to coldies ! 

Come on ECM you know it makes sense ! 

 

[northwestsnow]

A very cold 5/6 days kicks off tomorrow..

 

Yes the Atlantic looks favourite to move in next weekend and yes I too really hate to see the vortex returning to the NW during January.

Let's enjoy a very welcome respite from Decembers rains and at the end of week see where we are moving forward..

Perhaps things will look differently by next weekend...

[Fozfoster]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

A very cold 5/6 days kicks off tomorrow..

 

Yes the Atlantic looks favourite to move in next weekend and yes I too really hate to see the vortex returning to the NW during January.

Let's enjoy a very welcome respite from Decembers rains and at the end of week see where we are moving forward..

Perhaps things will look differently by next weekend...

Very pragmatic NWS but a kick in the teeth for a lot on here.

[Ali1977]

The GEFS Mean now has a very light band of snow through the midlands Sunday evening - personally a slight dusting would be nice then as it would last all week and help drop the temps further at night. 

[Troubleatmill]

On 11/01/2024 at 23:57, Cold Winter Night said:

That discrepancy between the extended ensemble and the expectation based upon a retention and renewed increase in AAM is basically what I was wondering about in my response to Tamara's post in the afternoon. Have you read her input in this thread today? Very informative.

This is what she responded:

In fact, the "wedges" that we see appearing in GFS 18z are evidence of the resistance there might be in the atmosphere against the onset of a powerful Westerly flow. Models notoriously have trouble getting that right.

The extended EPS tonight also contained a hint of amplification through Iberia and the UK towards Scandinavia again.

So yes, ideally you would hope to see the eventual verifying outcome in the ensemble as early and as clearly as possible. If the ensembles were always wrong, they would indeed be pointless, but that is not usually the case. This however is a quite exceptional situation we appear to be in this phase of winter, so it's not strange to see the models struggle.

Obviously nothing has verified yet, however each model is going further away from a continuation of cold. 

Or course it's entirely possible all the models are wrong, but surely it's more realistic to think they may be right? 

Let's hope for a big turnaround from where we are headed, although if the models are wrong and the more knowledgeable are right, we aren't heading there anyway, it's a dilemma

 

Edited January 13 by Troubleatmill

[Ali1977]

The GEFS mean for Wednesday as mentioned earlier certainly brings the snow further north

 

None of the other models do though.

Edited January 13 by Ali1977