Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[sundog]

It does seem the cold in the US gets cut off just as quickly as ours which is one good thing. 

[tight isobar]

41 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM no where near though unfortunately 

We have until Monday on this- and I’ve seen these bounce until 12hrs out @ fruition! It’s still worth a note.. 

Edited January 13 by tight isobar

[Rob 79812010]

27 minutes ago, SollyOlly said:

Yes Matt,  I was thinking the same earlier today, at least we've already had a bit of interest this winter (even if I haven't yet seen falling snow!). The PV models have been interesting watching, definitely not as robust as many a year ("PV of doom!"), and maybe we'll get a split or full reversal before the end of winter to give us another shot at something seasonal. For now, I'm looking forward to enjoying the cold in the coming week.

 Totally agree. Parts of the Lakes had the heaviest snowfall they'd seen for many years. We're going into a very cold week. Following week not clear cut but looking above average. I've seen some negativity for Feb all the credible forecasters are suggesting good chances for cold and snow.  Snow chances for NW to Tuesday.  So the usual 2cm for manc. I don't say that in irony! That's actually decent for here

 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, sundog said:

It does seem the cold in the US gets cut off just as quickly as ours which is one good thing. 

I noticed that too. Don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing though. It would suggest increased mobility and zonal flow and less amplification which isn't good. 

[mountain shadow]

Horrendous ECM Op.

If that's where we are at day ten you can write off two weeks after that.

[Frank Trough]

9 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

But look at this profile for the US….I anticipate the jetstream to suddenly ‘unfire’

 

Going to be a very interesting week of model watching

BFTP

Sort of, although had some of the mean charts that showed robust heights and the talk of highs shuffling around at high latitudes converted into a memorable cold spell then we would have all been in the regionals measuring our snow this week. 
 

snow for some but overall a fairly standard cold snap for what is the heart of winter. 
 

we then have 7/10 days (minimum) of westerlies with euro heights to take us into the last knockings of proper winter.

[Bricriu]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I noticed that too. Don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing though. It would suggest increased mobility and zonal flow and less amplification which isn't good. 

I thought it would be the opposite- the lift out of cold in North America would lead to a weakening of the jetstream and reduce the Zonal onslaught?

[kumquat]

If you were to tell me back in October we'd be seeing charts like this mid-January at T96, I'd bite your hand off.

[mountain shadow]

Just now, kumquat said:

If you were to tell me back in October we'd be seeing charts like this mid-January at T96, I'd bite your hand off.

Even if you knew it only meant snow for mainly Scotland and zero for Gloucestershire?

 

[The Enforcer]

39 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Even if you knew it only meant snow for mainly Scotland and zero for Gloucestershire?

 

Impossibe to ascertain from a T+96 500hpa chart.

Edited January 13 by The Enforcer

[Bricriu]

18 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

But look at this profile for the US….I anticipate the jetstream to suddenly ‘unfire’

 

Going to be a very interesting week of model watching

BFTP

Is your thinking that we could see heights rises  to the North  East being modelled later next week?

[kumquat]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Even if you knew it only meant snow for mainly Scotland and zero for Gloucestershire?

 

Yep - plenty of potential in that no matter what the current NWP models are showing. All sorts of things can crop up in 96 hours with low T850's covering the whole country (incl. Eire / N.Ire)

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Is your thinking that we could see heights rises  to the North  East being modelled later next week?

I’m thinking we’ll see some northward ridging appearing.  Where that settles up for grabs but Atlantic train not a long distance express

 

BFTP

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Impossibe to ascertain from a T+96 chart.

Not impossible at all. We are pretty much 90% certain where snow will fall and 100% where it won't for some.

[Paul]

UKV not thinking that snow will be limited to just Scotland. Don't get me wrong, it's going to snow quite a lot in Scotland, but there's interest elsewhere all the same. And to be fair as well, the UKV has, in my view, tended to underdo convective precip of late. 

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Yep - plenty of potential in that no matter what the current NWP models are showing. All sorts of things can crop up in 96 hours with low T850's covering the whole country (incl. Eire / N.Ire)

Don’t see where any surprises are meant to come from. Flow isn’t strong nor established enough. Winds very slack in the ‘dead zone’ to the N of that LP skirting to the S.

If you’re in the Midlands, for example, any snow chances look isolated.

[The Enforcer]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Not impossible at all. We are pretty much 90% certain where snow will fall and 100% where it won't for some.

Well for a start, the chart is 5 days away. Last Monday was dry 5 days away and yet that had mostly light snow across large parts of the South.

Secondly, the chart is not a high-resolution precipitation chart, so it doesn't contain any details, good or bad.

Thirdly, even if a high resolution chart at T+6 says no, the verification is not 100% and nowcast would still need to be applied.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Again subtle hints of a few runs trending colder again on the mogreps...come on folks work with me here 

[mbrothers]

8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Not impossible at all. We are pretty much 90% certain where snow will fall and 100% where it won't for some.

Wow

[KTtom]

3 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Don’t see where any surprises are meant to come from. Flow isn’t strong nor established enough. Winds very slack in the ‘dead zone’ to the N of that LP skirting to the S.

If you’re in the Midlands, for example, any snow chances look isolated.

Agree, these 'surprises' are usually when you get a cold flow established , next week we go WNW to N and then NW in 48 hrs.

[Matt Jones]

ECM day 10 throws up a plume from the south, going to be a big difference in temperature compared to this Tuesday coming if it's anywhere near correct, still cold next week no doubt but have to say it's at the lower end of where I would have hoped just a few days ago, once the breakdown started appearing it hasn't let go, first signs had to be the weakening of the Greenland high.

Edited January 13 by Matt Jones

[Singularity]

Based on the high AAM state limiting the strength of westerlies, I’d not be surprised to see the shift to a more settled outcome next weekend into the week after be repeated again tomorrow such that UKM & ECM keep wet weather north of most or all of the UK, perhaps even with the south holding onto light winds.

Regardless, the high across W or NW Europe should tend to migrate further N or NNE during the final third of Jan as the new high AAM cycle plays out in tandem with an active MJO setting out across the Pacific.

In Feb the response to a Pacfic-crossing MJO becomes most strongly in favour of HLB out of the winter months. No surprise that the seasonal models have been so keen on a HLB dominated month.

Edited January 13 by Singularity

[Chrisover93]

19 minutes ago, kumquat said:

If you were to tell me back in October we'd be seeing charts like this mid-January at T96, I'd bite your hand off.

That is something I think we all forget about and we are in jan, southern England saw a great snow event in 2018 march if Wednesday doesn’t come off which I really am on the fence now leaning towards it but if not then the winter is here for a while 

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Again subtle hints of a few runs trending colder again on the mogreps...come on folks work with me here 

Checking the mslp stamps shows it’s just cool zonal on some runs Matt 

[Weathizard]

20 minutes ago, kumquat said:

If you were to tell me back in October we'd be seeing charts like this mid-January at T96, I'd bite your hand off.

I wouldn’t, if you’d offered me this I would have bitten your hand off…

 

That T96 chart isn’t great at all, no blocking to sustain the cold southward progression, that’s just the reality of where we are and pretending like that t96 chart is good will only lead to more disappointment really.

 

There’s pretty much cross model agreement on the Greenland vortex powering up and an enormous high pressure cell to our south /sw, seen it countless winters and it’s a winter killer unfortunately, I know people don’t like to hear it but it’s reality.