Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

any guesses where this will lead?  I’m intrigued 

 

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

To boredom and another 2 weeks of winter lost

Not 2weeks….that’s the point.  Next week is looking very interesting….but agree unfortunately Herts will be probably the driest part of the country….so cold and cloudy 

 

BFTP

[Don]

45 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

This year promised decent patterns and has flattered to deceive so far.  It may be many years before we get similarly favourable signals going into winter again.

Oh dear, sounds like you are none too optimistic now Mike?  That said, I know where you're coming from and what you say all makes sense!  I wonder if we will have more luck in February?  The EC46 seems to have backed off colder potential in yesterday's and today's runs, albeit not gone.

[ANYWEATHER]

So ending on a Winters night in January,  Ecm is painful to watch...

[ANYWEATHER]

26 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

any guesses where this will lead?  I’m intrigued 

 

BFTP

Retorical Question 

[Derecho]

Though an Atlantic onslaught will be difficult to stop from next weekend. The Iberian low does give us a chance of it remaining cold and anticyclonic for a few days. The problem us we have the Atlantic trying to steamroller through.

Hopefully there can be a build of pressure on top of any potential Iberian low to delay the return to milder air but it does look hard to stop.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Retorical Question 

Well I didn’t expect record smashing cold for the ESB!!!! 
 

BFTP

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

So ending on a Winters night in January,  Ecm is painful to watch...

To be fair, it'd probably record breaking, or at least real close...just on the wrong end!

That being said that looks very much on the extreme end of the solution range thankfully!

 

[snowbob]

Well I’m off to euro disney on Wednesday so will like the push just as it is 

south east London  will probably get hammered now 

just hope the tunnel don’t get closed our end otherwise I will have two very disappointed children on a rainy morning 

Edited January 13 by snowbob

[Hotspur62]

40 minutes ago, Don said:

Oh dear, sounds like you are none too optimistic now Mike?  That said, I know where you're coming from and what you say all makes sense!  I wonder if we will have more luck in February?  The EC46 seems to have backed off colder potential in yesterday's and today's runs, albeit not gone.

I have lost a lot of faith in the EC46 over the last 12-18 months in both winter and summer and really take it with a pinch of salt !The Latest GLOSEA for February which came out a couple days showed quite extensive Northern blocking which is what the teleconnections seem to indicate and must be built in for this model?Although being a coldie I am not using this because it is what I would like to see,but more because I have more faith in it over the last few years.Of course it could be wrong and it will be interesting to see come 1st March.

In the meantime today has seen the models back off a bit from Atlantic piling in and more resistance that this weeks cold will hold till maybe 21st January.After that yes milder weather looks favourite but more cold zonal so not excessively mild(just going on latest 18z gfs)Indeed I think Scottish ski resorts will be in for a good couple weeks starting tomorrow

Edited January 13 by Hotspur62

[weathercold]

57 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It wasn’t a comment about teleconnections.  While not infallible, on this occasion they did what it says on the tin, I agree about that.  (The models, however, did overegg the blocking massively as this came into view which was an issue.)  

It is clear to anyone who has followed this winter chase for any number of years, that even with the right signals, it has become virtually impossible to get setups for significant snow in winter in southern UK.  Apart from a few inches in December 2020, there has been no cold and snowy period since 2018 (does that even count as it was in the spring?).  Changing climate seems to have done much more than increase average temperatures a bit, it also seems to have massively reduced decent patterns and altered patterns that once delivered into ones that don’t.  This year promised decent patterns and has flattered to deceive so far.  It may be many years before we get similarly favourable signals going into winter again.

Very much agree - so much was on our side going into this winter but the reality has been one that has to date been totally non descript. December washout and mild, record breaking Xmas mild. Jan - nothing to date, a few chilly days next week and then mild for the rest of Jan.

Feb- you’d be a brave man to predict a cold and wintry Feb and with the sun stronger and the clock ticking once it’ gets to mid Feb Spring starts showing its hand and conditions need to be almost perfect to deliver snowy scenes across across all but Scotland. A sobering winter so far…AGW eh.

[Rob 79812010]

22 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Very much agree - so much was on our side going into this winter but the reality has been one that has to date been totally non descript. December washout and mild, record breaking Xmas mild. Jan - nothing to date, a few chilly days next week and then mild for the rest of Jan.

Feb- you’d be a brave man to predict a cold and wintry Feb and with the sun stronger and the clock ticking once it’ gets to mid Feb Spring starts showing its hand and conditions need to be almost perfect to deliver snowy scenes across across all but Scotland. A sobering winter so far…AGW eh.

A few chilly days. Really!!!!

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Nearly up to the M4

That well passed the M4 I'm liking it for the south.

[Don]

28 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

So ending on a Winters night in January,  Ecm is painful to watch...

As Prince Philip would say, 'Ghastly!!' 

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

Really? 

This week has been largely below average with blocking. High pressure is now shifting NW towards Greenland ushering in much colder air for this coming week. That’s 2 weeks of below average & blocked conditions which has been well advertised within the GSDM/teleconnections. 

Is it widespread snow? No, perhaps but, but that wasn’t really advertised or promised. What was advertised is an increased likelihood of blocking & colder weather and in fairness that’s exactly what we’ve seen. 

Teleconnections can give a broad sense of the larger patterns but will never be able to tell you if X will see snow. 

Hasn't really warmed up all week here, though not as cold as during Mondays snow 

[ANYWEATHER]

Well , I imagine the ten day charts have put the coldies to bed and asleep tonight, but winter still has a lot to burn , so still plenty left for winter frolicking. Although the Atlantic is coming in , I expect at least a couple or three weeks of mild wet weather, so will be looking into February before we see any sort of pattern change at the earliest Watch this space

[Don]

7 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

That well passed the M4 I'm liking it for the south.

Yep, if I still lived in the south I would be fairly happy.  However, looking largely dry, cold and frosty for my part of the Midlands.

Edited January 13 by Don

[nicknacknoo]

25 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Very much agree - so much was on our side going into this winter but the reality has been one that has to date been totally non descript. December washout and mild, record breaking Xmas mild. Jan - nothing to date, a few chilly days next week and then mild for the rest of Jan.

Feb- you’d be a brave man to predict a cold and wintry Feb and with the sun stronger and the clock ticking once it’ gets to mid Feb Spring starts showing its hand and conditions need to be almost perfect to deliver snowy scenes across across all but Scotland. A sobering winter so far…AGW eh.

 

[nicknacknoo]

I just don't believe this to be true. Here on the south coast I would say our winter is Jan, Feb, March. The sea is far too warm in December for us so we do well out of continental easterlies (if they appear). The holy Grail for us has always been a Scandinavian high and channel runners and these tend to be more prevalent in the latter winter months. The sun doesn't make that much difference when reflecting off dry powder snow

[blizzard81]

I think we hit rock bottom last night and this morning but we've come a long way since then in the 5 day timeframe. Icon certainly thinks so. 

[STORMWATER]

The models are dishearting this evening to say the least where I live, but anyone up north will get some decent amounts, fingers crossed we might get a change in the models tomorrow or Monday but clutching at straws I think.

[Don]

35 minutes ago, Derecho said:

Though an Atlantic onslaught will be difficult to stop from next weekend. The Iberian low does give us a chance of it remaining cold and anticyclonic for a few days. The problem us we have the Atlantic trying to steamroller through.

Hopefully there can be a build of pressure on top of any potential Iberian low to delay the return to milder air but it does look hard to stop.

I think now that a mild return is inevitable, all eyes are on February for the next chance of cold potential.

[alexisj9]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

I think now that a mild return is inevitable, all eyes are on February for the next chance of cold potential.

Wow, seriously, how about letting this cold spell play out, and I'm not so sure about the warm up, icon might be showing the way, we will see later in the week. I'm not looking for the next spell just yet.

[blizzard81]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

Wow, seriously, how about letting this cold spell play out, and I'm not so sure about the warm up, icon might be showing the way, we will see later in the week. I'm not looking for the next spell just yet.

The 18z Icon really does set the cat amongst the pigeons. 

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The 18z Icon really does set the cat amongst the pigeons. 

I suppose it's possible that it's taking GFS place re the pub run, but let's hope not, I'm intrigued what the 0z might show in the morning.