Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[jonboy]

It would appear that the usual members are beginning to write off early Feb despite it being over 2 weeks away.  When did 17 day charts verify?

Enjoy the next 7 days then reassess the beginning of next month not before. 

I fully expect surprise snow fall in this coming week 

[festivalking]

GFS 18z makes landfall in the far south west on Wednesday. A small shift north.

Edited January 14 by festivalking

[Nick123]

15 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Slightly north again, far south may be back in the game on this run 

What's with that precipitation coming into the north east? That's not popped up before has it? 

Edited January 14 by Paul

[snowblind]

13 minutes ago, festivalking said:

GFS 18z makes landfall in the far south west on Wednesday. A small shift north.

Looks pretty similar to the previous run to me.

Almost exactly and rather implausible hugging the exact contours of the south coast all the way along and not really making landfall.

Edited January 14 by snowblind

[January Snowstorm]

Ireland is already under milder Southwesterlys by Thursday night. The mild weather seems to be coming about 12 hours earlier than was predicted this time yesterday. Quite the change out West

[Beanz]

1 hour ago, pinball wizard said:

Have to say the AI Graphcast model has been performing reasonably well over the last 5 days that I've been following it. Though we're not yet at Wednesday it does seem to have handled the will it wont it low to the south quite well too. For those not familiar with it here is the link:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-mslp-wind850?base_time=202401141200&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202401241200

 

Forgive my flippant question, but how do you know if AIG has modelled a low pressure system well, if it hasn't happened yet...?

 

 

[Bricriu]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Ireland is already under milder Southwesterlys by Thursday night. The mild weather seems to be coming about 12 hours earlier than was predicted this time yesterday. Quite the change out West

That's assuming the GFS is correct. Let's see what the UKMO and ECM say in the morning 

[pinball wizard]

7 minutes ago, Beanz said:

Forgive my flippant question, but how do you know if AIG has modelled a low pressure system well, if it hasn't happened yet...?

 

 

Some time ago it had the setup that is currently modelled by multiple models. I did say though it's not wednesday yet too.. So obviously it, like all the other models could still be wrong, but it appeared a bit more steadfast in its predictions.

Edited January 14 by pinball wizard

[Purga]

Hello Barty, my old friend
I've come to talk with you again
Because a vision softly creeping
Left its seeds while I was sleeping
And the vision that was planted in my brain
Still remains
Within the sound of Netweather weeping!

  

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:

Some time ago it had the path that is currently modelled hy multiple models. I did say though it's not wednesday yet too.. So obviously it, like all the other models could still be wrong, but it appeared a bit less volatile in output 

It’s been consistent with its placement of the low 

but that’s pretty much been through n France and only skirting the se coast on some runs 

That remains the message 

good spot about the consistency of graphcast btw 

[mountain shadow]

17 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Ireland is already under milder Southwesterlys by Thursday night. The mild weather seems to be coming about 12 hours earlier than was predicted this time yesterday. Quite the change out West

Indeed.

The 528dm line doesn't actually clear the South of Ireland until Wednesday night, then the mild comes in Thursday night. 

So, this cold spell is essentially a one day wonder for most of Ireland. 

Certainly a long long way from what the models were showing a couple of days ago.

[throwoff]

35 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Looks pretty similar to the previous run to me.

Almost exactly and rather implausible hugging the exact contours of the south coast all the way along and not really making landfall.

I found that very odd as well. The precipitation type chart is bizarre, like someone’s drawn a line along the coast. 
 

It has shifted the low slightly more north, hopefully we can see that begin to play out into tomorrows runs.

[Don]

28 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Ireland is already under milder Southwesterlys by Thursday night. The mild weather seems to be coming about 12 hours earlier than was predicted this time yesterday. Quite the change out West

Hope this upcoming cold spell doesn't turn out to be a snap?! 

[Don]

31 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

That's assuming the GFS is correct. Let's see what the UKMO and ECM say in the morning 

The way things are going, I suspect they will also bring the milder air in sooner!! 

[Daniel*]

It feels a bit premature talking about daily warm records. It might not even be outrageously mild further north taking Glasgow on EPS for example yes comfortably above average nothing exceptional though signalled. 

Further south here for London there is a fairly strong signal for very mild weather in teens early next week there are some suggestions of something closer to normal by end of January, not convinced we are looking at a 2+ week v mild spell.

[January Snowstorm]

The far reaches of FI remain predominantly mild / very mild! We could see a lot of rain from the charts below.

[Don]

16 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The far reaches of FI remain predominantly mild / very mild! We could see a lot of rain from the charts below.

Not been the best evening of model watching for those of the colder persuasion has it?!

[summer blizzard]

Quite a change from the Euro, we basically get the breakdown front through and then a Bartlett builds.

[Eagle Eye]

A reminder that we take snow for granted in my opinion, I've got a Brazilian friend who's in northern Ireland at the moment with a few snow showers in his area and this is his first time seeing snow in 9 years since a trip to Sweden.

 

So with lots of streamers possible, enjoy it, given the amount of showers a lot of people are in with a chance. The amount laying is probably going to make it a non-event away from Scotland and maybe northern England nonetheless but still enjoy it if you do get it, chances are you won't get much but it's still an event of sorts.

[alexisj9]

Don't know if anyone rates these probably not, but it's an ensemble that shows all 4 of today's runs together, looks a bit of a mess obviously, but I'm only interested in the mean, all this is useful for really

Shows small chance of snow on Wednesday and a warm up Saturday evening for the extreme SE corner.

[bluearmy]

18z ec suite is the strongest south coast clipper of past four runs 

possible  3cms on the sw moors and up to 2 cms along the coastal 20 miles strip - amount  increases a little as you head east taking the eps into account. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

For what its worth, almost all the main runs so far this morning clip the far SW with some light snow. GFS 0z is definitely the furthest north, whilst GEM makes a further encroach across SE England. We're really talking 50-100 miles here, will have to see what UKMO and EC show later. 

Edited January 15 by Ben Sainsbury

[Cheshire Freeze]

That low pressure at the weekend needs watching. GFS, ICON, GEM and UKMO all have it to some extent this morning

 

 

A couple of the GEFS produce really severe outcomes-

 

Edited January 15 by Cheshire Freeze

[carinthian]

Morning all.Interesting winter weather coming up for you guys this week. A bit of everything, frost, ice, snow and sunshine and windy weekend to come. Is it going to be a 100% change to mild sector condition this time next week ? Some variations in the models being now shown . For example the extended UKMO chart below shows jet powering up on a more southerly track with possible intense storm development. Snowfall could remain significant over Northern Scotland.  I would think looking at this mornings models , winter is not busted yet. Could be more rapid changes in the outputs over the coming days. Nice for you guys to have a nice winters spell for a few days at least !

C

[KTtom]

As mentioned above, UKMO slaps a nasty storm smack over the UK next weekend! Damaging winds in the south IF it were to verify like this..the other thing that jumps out at you with this chart is just how flat the pattern is..

Edited January 15 by KTtom