Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24

[Stormeh]

30 minutes ago, jon_d1983 said:

still looks cold out to at least the 20th before a potential return of milder air.

As long as we can get one decent snow event here in Scotland next week and for the snow to stay on the ground for a few days then I will be happy 

Edited January 11 by Stormeh

[johncam]

26 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

As long as we can get one decent snow event here in Scotland next week and for the snow to stay on the ground for a few days then I will be happy 

That's all I am looking for as well , thinking we are looking at 5-7 day cold spell max according to this mornings models

[Hawesy]

1 hour ago, Norrance said:

The wind has backed a bit more toward the North so the gloom that has been with us here for the last few days has  lifted leaving us with a sunny and frosty morning. Looking East though the cloud is not too far away. Temp has gone up a couple of degrees since breakfast and is now 1C.

Indeed, after a few days of gloom, dreich and drizzle it's brightened up here too. Not exactly sunny, as there is a fair bit of cloud around but the little wind there is is from the north and it feels drier and far more pleasant than of late. 4c/2c currently. Still no frost so it's still a mudbath underfoot. 

[Metwatch]

Winter wonderland in Glen Affric yesterday!

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

16 hours ago, Huntforsnow said:

We haven’t heard from @Kirkcaldy Weather in a while  

 

2 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

 

 

Super happy with the evolution since Late December now its becoming clearer in some finer detailing of this upcoming significant cold episode.

• Significant cold front moving south bringing significant below avg surface and 850hpa temperature anomalies by Sunday January 14th
• Surface temperatures point to a severe winter weather event.

"Through Jan week 2 toward the aforementioned middle month period we'll have the -NAO,-AO,PNA,El Ninò,MJO and Easterly QBO feeding towards the setup going retrogressive this will have a couple of significant changes with a westwards moving trough which links with expectations into elongation with the centre over the Baltics, Scandinavia as this is occuring the high pressure and block will shift northwestward to reside across Greenland this is more supporting of colder 850hpa temps likely from the Northeast, we maintain below average surface temps during this with possible scope for these to get colder"

'Seeing the heart of these colder temperatures at surface and upper level becoming centred through Europe with just the far south of the UK clinging to is perfectly anticipated thanks to the phase 7 feedback'

Note the movement northwards of this cold anomaly from phases 7 into 8

From the above we can Note the significance of both 850hpa temps and in particular surface temperatures as both will contain anomalies roughly 15 > 20 Degrees BELOW AVERAGE, this will give multiple ice days in succession with liklihood of significant ice days over Scotland and Northern regions of England though there will be ice days for Ireland  

A timeframe with a focal point towards wintry precip event(s) will be from January 16th through 18th with the cyclone in the Atlantic starting the merging process to the Scandinavian Baltic Trough

7 day precip anomaly. I'm expectant of significant flash flood event[s] for Portugal and its border into Northwest Spain

Such an excellent showcase of all the teleconnective feedback coming into one stunning meteorological display

"My thinking holds steady with the MJO working into the Maritimes generally Mid Jan maybe into January week 3 as this increases cyclonic developments seeing these sorts of 500hpa setups during that period is very plausible.''

 

Following the MJO passing across the Maritimes we begin seeing feedback of phases 1 and into 2 as January week 4 gets started a high forms toward the Maritimes which might extend through Canada, also I'm starting to notice the trend toward cut off low development toward Mexico, far Southwest US  

 

[jon_d1983]

15 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Great post KW!!! 

[Capri61]

wow!! KW that a lot of information . Basically it looks mostly dry imby unless we get some disturbance in the Northerly flow giving enough percipataion to get over the mountains further North.

 

Looking like we have a good chance of a BFTE later on then it's game on !! .

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

Slight frost here but grounds still rock hard, current temps 0.7C dull, murky but hint of brightness. 

[Ricky67]

The model output chat.  Interesting stuff 

[Big Gally]

20 minutes ago, Ricky67 said:

The model output chat.  Interesting stuff 

Yip fascinating stuff. Hopefully things ramp up come sunday onwards.

[Sceptical]

Sean Batty seems bullish regarding the incoming cold weather!

 

[lorenzo]

UKMO 12Z is a great run for Scotland if you like cold, and snow for some..

Lovely flood of -10 850hPa too..

Anticipated snowcover creating some incredible TMin projections..

 

Edited January 11 by lorenzo

[lorenzo]

And the media, if you could call this channel actual media.. go wild. Gotta love AI.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

23 hours ago, thebigyin said:

I'm up to 30 Internet tabs open, most of which are weather related. I probably need some sort of counselling.

Think your 30 tabs are something... I'm at the stage my browser just puts a smiley theres too many to add up

[Methuselah]

22 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

And the media, if you could call this channel actual media.. go wild. Gotta love AI.

 

Yes indeed!

George and the Haggis:    Some folks might not like AI, but it sure beats trawling through Google Images for something useful. . . Meanwhile, my twenty-one years in the Highlands did teach me one thing: It usually snows up there long before it does down here! 

[Norrance]

It has been bright but cold here today with frost lingering. Coule be colder next week in some places if this is correct?

[Polar Maritime]

Perfect conditions for hill walking next week

[Ross B]

35 minutes ago, Norrance said:

It has been bright but cold here today with frost lingering. Coule be colder next week in some places if this is correct?

Below - 20c here if that came off over our snow fields.... Warmer further north but only because it'll still be snowing up there! 

[lorenzo]

Old school kiltie LS pinged me this one on X !

Oaft.

[DR(S)NO]

I’m sure this won’t be correct given it’s off my phone 

but if it is… wow, yes pleaseeeeee

6 inches of snow on tuesday

 

[aggy]

Right so am I getting this correct 

 

into the freezer next week

then out the freezer for a week 

then back into freezer at the turn of the month

been trying to catch up on the mod however it’s very difficult to get past the noise 

[Norrance]

2 minutes ago, aggy said:

Right so am I getting this correct 

 

into the freezer next week

then out the freezer for a week 

then back into freezer at the turn of the month

been trying to catch up on the mod however it’s very difficult to get past the noise 

That would certainly tie in with the Met O long range and is one possibility from several from the models.

[Hawesy]

1 hour ago, lorenzo said:

Old school kiltie LS pinged me this one on X !

Oaft.

He’s highlighted that because we still manage to avoid an air frost in the East Neuk…

[Ravelin]

The above has caused consternation in significant swathes of the MOD thread as you might expect. Solution? Move to live several hundred miles north, or nip across the channel and set up home in Northern France (must be plenty of spare dingies is storage in Kent somewhere). Alternatively, wait for the next model run as it'll all change again. 

Looking like a half decent chance for us north of the border of seeing snow, with the N & NE contingent maybe starting to see wintry showers from Sunday onwards. Except @Hairy Celtof course, as north of the central belt he appears to have chosen the least snowy place to live.

Edited January 11 by Ravelin

[Hairy Celt]

Good old Stav on the broadcast outlook beeb forecast.  The expression on his face as he says plenty of cloud around but (UNFORTUNATELY says the twitch of the lip) some sun over Scotland. Classic.

@Ravelin yes well this is what happens. However, new Continental Vikings fitted, will travel.

Edited January 11 by Hairy Celt