UK winters: are they getting colder?

[Weather-history]

15 hours ago, Scorcher said:

I don't think it is snowing more in Manchester. Unless someone has some statistics to prove it?

Snow still isn't common during winter. There have been some notable snowy spells in recent years but then also very long snowless periods.  Even in the winters of the late 90s/early 2000s we would still usually get a covering at some point.

One thing I have noticed is that snow cover has hung around longer in recent winters. For example, the winter of 2018-19 which was not a snowfest and was very mild times but I still managed to record 6 days of lying snow, all down to one morning  snowfalls of late January 

4 days with lying snow is going to be recorded for the current spell   

28th December 2020 snowfall gave a covering that lasted until the 9th January. 

The Boxing Day 2014 snowfall, that cover lasted until New Year's Eve.

In the 1990s, a lot of the snowfalls gave coverings,  were here today and gone tomorrow affairs. The late January 1996 easterly which gave a lot of snow for this area for an easterly, that snow cover contrived to disappear within 48 hrs, a "dry thaw"  Even the early February 1996 snowfall covering which started Monday night /Tuesday was gone by the Friday.

 

 

[trickydicky]

On 14/01/2024 at 13:03, SummerShower said:

I think the trend overall is for milder winters.  I do think though this is primarily because we get more 'silly' mild spells nowadays, where the CET is at 9 or 10C+ for days on end.  When the pattern gets in the right place we still get the very low temperatures.  Think about December 2022, when the CET was just above freezing for the first 17 days, but then there was a lot of this 'silly' mild weather in the 2nd half.  Had it just been 'normal' mild, say 5 to 8C days, we could have come off with a notably cold month.  It's these very mild spells that mean we don't get remarkably cold CET months anymore which in turn add up to milder winters.  Other months this has been notable are February 2021, which included the lowest February temperature since 1955 but had a silly mild 2nd half.  January 23 to some degree had silly mild to start, then a cold 2nd half.  Both months had 5.something CETs I.e. unremarkable, despite some good cold weather in them.

I do find that when the Atlantic is in charge (which yes, that is the default UK winter pattern), we tend to have more south-westerlies thanks to the Azores high being more prevalent.  What I feel is missing from our winters now are spells of colder zonality, which help to keep temperatures down somewhat, when the Atlantic is in charge.  I feel this is the reason our winters are milder, rather than becuase our cold spells becoming less intense (which they aren't).  So the warming world is causing a pattern change to some degree here.

So, overall yes winters are milder now, and the above is the reason for it I believe.

I agree with this to an extent. The next 5-7 days will be another ‘silly’ example. During our mini mini ice age 2009-2013 it was notable that when it was mild it wasn’t actually mild, it was 5/6 degrees. I feel like when we get the Atlantic in nowadays its a long fetch southwesterly every time. A cool breezy westerly or a relatively cold northwesterly seem rarer than they were. 

[Rob 79812010]

34 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

This graph I made is relevant meteorological winter mean temperature at Heathrow from winter 1948/49. It’s evident there was a step change in late 1980s, if we cherry pick last 10 years there’s been no real overall change. It’s clear winter 2015/16 was a very high point, indeed it fits with my anecdotal thoughts. 

Can you do one for Scotland??

[Rob 79812010]

12 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

One thing I have noticed is that snow cover has hung around longer in recent winters. For example, the winter of 2018-19 which was not a snowfest and was very mild times but I still managed to record 6 days of lying snow, all down to one morning  snowfalls of late January 

4 days with lying snow is going to be recorded for the current spell   

28th December 2020 snowfall gave a covering that lasted until the 9th January. 

The Boxing Day 2014 snowfall, that cover lasted until New Year's Eve.

In the 1990s, a lot of the snowfalls gave coverings,  were here today and gone tomorrow affairs. The late January 1996 easterly which gave a lot of snow for this area for an easterly, that snow cover contrived to disappear within 48 hrs, a "dry thaw"  Even the early February 1996 snowfall covering which started Monday night /Tuesday was gone by the Friday.

 

 

That Jan 96 one was incredible. Had I been as interested then as I am now, am not sure how I would have coped!!! Didn't we have a week last winter where it stayed on ground? Thinking December?? 

[qwertyK]

6 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

That Jan 96 one was incredible. Had I been as interested then as I am now, am not sure how I would have coped!!! Didn't we have a week last winter where it stayed on ground? Thinking December?? 

December 2022, yeah. Not sure if it was as much snow as in December 2017 but I recall it being very similar. Happened quite suddenly. Got down to well below freezing in the nights. 

[cheeky_monkey]

snow typically stays on the ground here from around mid October to mid April 

[reef]

13 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

One thing I have noticed is that snow cover has hung around longer in recent winters. For example, the winter of 2018-19 which was not a snowfest and was very mild times but I still managed to record 6 days of lying snow, all down to one morning  snowfalls of late January 

4 days with lying snow is going to be recorded for the current spell   

28th December 2020 snowfall gave a covering that lasted until the 9th January. 

The Boxing Day 2014 snowfall, that cover lasted until New Year's Eve.

In the 1990s, a lot of the snowfalls gave coverings,  were here today and gone tomorrow affairs. The late January 1996 easterly which gave a lot of snow for this area for an easterly, that snow cover contrived to disappear within 48 hrs, a "dry thaw"  Even the early February 1996 snowfall covering which started Monday night /Tuesday was gone by the Friday.

It's the total opposite here. In the last 11 years, only late-February 2018 (4 days) and February 2021 (7 days) have managed more than a day or two with lying snow.

I think we've always had these occasional prolonged spells every few years and they're still generally potent enough to deliver. The short-lived transient spells have vanished here though. The toppler which was a thing of the 90s and 00s seem to never happen now. They used to be the main source of snow here outside the more famous spells.

[Rob 79812010]

59 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

December 2022, yeah. Not sure if it was as much snow as in December 2017 but I recall it being very similar. Happened quite suddenly. Got down to well below freezing in the nights. 

Can you remember one from maybe 2003 or 2004? Think Jan. Was about 4 inches?? Happened overnight.

[Rob 79812010]

59 minutes ago, reef said:

It's the total opposite here. In the last 11 years, only late-February 2018 (4 days) and February 2021 (7 days) have managed more than a day or two with lying snow.

I think we've always had these occasional prolonged spells every few years and they're still generally potent enough to deliver. The short-lived transient spells have vanished here though. The toppler which was a thing of the 90s and 00s seem to never happen now. They used to be the main source of snow here outside the more famous spells.

I this is why we've done better in recent years on this side. As you say, the transient ones have done a runner. I remember some of those when I lived in West Yorkshire in 90's. West of the pennines they were never cold enough and the snow shadow would always show its hand anyway

[Summer8906]

On 14/01/2024 at 12:14, Rob 79812010 said:

otherthan 81, pretty snowless.

You had bad luck there! The 80s were very, very good for snow where I was.

In my part of the world (NW Sussex) at the time, 1985-87 were all very snowy. 1985 had two separate good snowy spells, 1986 had the historically cold Feb (with two bouts of snow on the 6th and on March 1st) and 1987 had the extreme cold and snowy spell during the week of Jan 11th.

Plus we had a moderate cold and snowy spell in Feb 1983, so 5 out of the 10 80s winters produced good snow interest. Furthermore we got one day of snow cover in Feb 1981, making 6/10 with at least a temporary good cover.

And if we take the calendar years, only 1980, 1984, 1988 and 1989 lacked a good snowy spell.

Edited January 24 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

On 19/01/2024 at 15:39, Rob 79812010 said:

Can you remember one from maybe 2003 or 2004? Think Jan. Was about 4 inches?? Happened overnight.

This was possibly the "thundersnow" of Jan 28th 2004, a Wednesday.

The month had been a typical January ending in 4, i.e. mostly wet, windy and fairly mild but with occasional cold incursions. A northwesterly incursion brought temps down to average around the 25th and then on the 28th a southward moving cold front brought an Arctic northerly in behind this northwesterly. Result was a short-lived period of heavy snow accompanied by thunder shortly after dark. It laid but only a thin covering, and froze solid the following night. Thurs 29th was brilliantly crisp and sunny, before, sadly, mild, dull and damp clag arrived on the 30th. This was a major disappointment as earlier in the week, the models were showing a prolonged cold spell - there was a sudden and unexpected change to an early breakdown.

However end of Feb was also wintry that year.

Edited January 24 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

  @reef Interesting winter 09/10 was the coldest since 81/82, even beating 84/85, 85/86 or 86/87. I guess those three, despite being very snowy, each had one mild month, the December in all three cases, while 09/10 was notable for all three months being cold. (Even 81/82 didn't manage that, not sure when the last occasion all three winter months were cold was... 78/79?)

Edited January 24 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

I did create a thread in the Historical Weather section around December 2022 which reviewed the snowiness of the winters of the late 40s to the end of the 60s, because I've always been curious about that. It looked like the 60s in particular were pretty snowy, and the 50s to a lesser extent.

I meant to go up to 1978 but never got round to it.

However as a summary, I think the winters of 1971 to 1976 (Jan year) were all pretty snowless while both 1977 and 1978 produced widespread lying snow in the south.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Same as reef here, snow does not last as long now, as 80's/90s

[Rob 79812010]

  @Summer8906 Yeah, the Easterly snowfalls don't often get over the pennines. And the classic breakdowns from the SW put us in the snow shadow. Its generally the NW Irish Sea streamers that we get. 79 best in my lifetime. 2010 a close second. Those 2 plus the bizarre easterly in Jan 1996 are the only 6 inch falls in my 60 years. We really are in the wrong place. Incredibly in 1947 the max snow depth in manc was only 5cm. The heavy falls were SW to NE driven and like I say they just don't cut it here. I believe 63 we had 9 inches. It was either a NW Irish Sea event or possibly a once in a lifetime true northerly depression as a pose to the useless polar lows!!! What's deepest you've had???

[Norrance]

19 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

not sure when the last occasion all three winter months were cold was... 78/79?)

December 1978 was not that cold for the 1980's. CET was 3.7C (would be considered cold now) and included a mix of warm and cold spells. Christmas for example was very mild but New Year freezing. 

[Summer8906]

  @Rob 79812010 I haven't measured depths but I remember "proper thick snow" lasting a good while - a week or more - in all of 1985-7.

[Summer8906]

Interesting observations on the nature of the mildness of recent years. Here, the mildness seems to come from two components:

a) silly-mild "blowtorch" airmasses. First seen in 1988/89 and 1989/90, and at times later in the 90s, as well as 2006/7, 2015/16 and 2019/20 as well as, it seems, the current winter.

b) A lack of average-to-cold Pm airmasses. Any "bright but showery" airmasses these days seem to be rPm from further south, and even those give maxima of around 10C at this time of year. To even get the max down to around 8c we need a definite northwesterly, or static anticyclonic weather. Northwesterlies or even WNW-lies seem to be distinctly absent nowadays; the winter of 2014/15 produced a fair few (and consequently that was, IIRC, only marginally above average) but that was very much the exception.

I would guess that Januaries are slightly cooler on the whole than the 1988-2008 period. The kind of "non-stop Atlantic" Januaries typified by 1988, 1989, 1990, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1999, 2002,  2007, 2008, 2014, 2016 and 2020 don't seem to be as common, we've now had 4 Januaries on the trot with a significant break from Atlantic activity.

If the current spell had just been slightly mild (say 8-11c maxima from the 20th-31st but never above that, perhaps 2C above average) we'd probably be looking at a cold January.

December and February on the other hand both seem to be trending towards silly-mild.

Edited January 24 by Summer8906

[Kasim Awan]

They are getting significantly milder, this really isn’t up for debate.

[Rob 79812010]

  @Summer8906 Great when it stays for a while isn't it. Yeah, can imagine they were good years in your area. You had the week in 87 where you had tons of snow and  I believe record breaking temperatures for that period??

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, Norrance said:

December 1978 was not that cold for the 1980's. CET was 3.7C (would be considered cold now) and included a mix of warm and cold spells. Christmas for example was very mild but New Year freezing. 

would still have been considered cold back then as it would have been 1c below the 1961-1990 average only 1981 had a colder Dec in the 1980s then you have to go to 1992 to find the next colder Dec ..probably that exceptional cold snow event at the end is what makes it memorable. For Example Jan 1980 was colder than every Jan from 1988 -2010 but no one remembers it. 

[Summer8906]

On 24/01/2024 at 21:26, cheeky_monkey said:

would still have been considered cold back then as it would have been 1c below the 1961-1990 average only 1981 had a colder Dec in the 1980s then you have to go to 1992 to find the next colder Dec ..probably that exceptional cold snow event at the end is what makes it memorable. For Example Jan 1980 was colder than every Jan from 1988 -2010 but no one remembers it.

The 1980s were, in general, notable for a prolonged run of mild Decembers (corrected silly typo), I believe every Dec from 1982 to 1989 inclusive was mild and often very mild. At the time, it very much aligned with what all the textbooks said, i.e. Dec was often mild and zonal with the colder weather in the new year. By contrast we of course had many cold Jan/Feb from 1979 to 1987, and the only cold spell of winter 87/88 was, if I remember right, the second half of Feb.

Jan 1980 is a strange one. I barely remember it at all so it's interesting to learn that it was colder than anything from 1988 to 2009 (I presume you mean 2009, not 2010). At the time (still comfortably in primary school) I remember 79/80 as unusually snowless and I think I perceived the winter as mild - which Dec and Feb were. Yet Jan was indeed apparently distinctly cold, a lot of anticyclonic E-lies mixed with short mild wet periods, but no snow. The only memories I have were a frosty New Year's Day, a breakdown on around the 3rd/4th with rain moving in, cloudy dry weather on the week of the 7th, a wet Monday when back at school, and a frosty sunny Saturday late in the month.

Presumably the 4th-coldest January from 1980 onwards (beaten only by 1985, 1987 and 2010); an unassuming month indeed to achieve such a statistic. These days a Jan 1980 repeat would probably be considered severe!

Edited January 27 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

  @Rob 79812010 indeed. That week in Jan 1987 was probably the most extreme for cold I have experienced in my lifetime. We had a modern house (built 1979) with central heating yet the windows were icing up inside. Midday temps were something like -5, it was literally a once-in-a-lifetime event.

Other winters had more repeated cold spells (e.g. 1985 with both Jan and Feb) but 1987 had that mix of being moderately prolonged and severe.

 

Edited January 27 by Summer8906

[The PIT]

They seem to be getting less variable.

 

 

[raz.org.rain]

  @The PIT wow, modern minimas are almost as high as historical maximums.