UK winters: are they getting colder?

[MattStoke]

No.

[Wade]

Wow 19.2 degrees, that is proof right there that winters are NOT getting colder, so I think it is time to end this topic as the question is a bit of a silly one.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Yawn. 

Warm records used to gain my interest, but it happens so frequently nowadays that it has become boring. We need to start breaking some more cold reccords, though it isn't very easy in this increasingly warming climate.

[sundog]

  @Weather Enthusiast91

Concern would be the main thing for me not the boredom aspect. 

[WYorksWeather]

2 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Warm records used to gain my interest, but it happens so frequently nowadays that it has become boring. We need to start breaking some more cold reccords, though it isn't very easy in this increasingly warming climate.

I don't think we'll be breaking any monthly cold records (can't rule out the odd daily record) this century, unless the AMOC dramatically slows or shuts down, in which case maybe there's a chance.

[raz.org.rain]

  @WYorksWeather and even at that, by the time the AMOC collapses, it's expected that climate change will be so severe that the worst observable effect here will be that our winters go back to how they were before temperatures started rising. Summers, however, would almost certainly get a lot hotter.

[WYorksWeather]

1 minute ago, raz.org.rain said:

and even at that, by the time the AMOC collapses, it's expected that climate change will be so severe that the worst observable effect here will be that our winters go back to how they were before temperatures started rising. Summers, however, would almost certainly get a lot hotter.

Yep, though a lot does depend on the timing. If the AMOC were hypothetically to shut off before 2030, I think we'd go back to Little Ice Age winters. However, most scientists think that's unlikely, and are talking more like mid- or late- century, in which case you're right, our winters will go back to probably 1961-1990, and our summers will be much hotter than they are now.

By far the most destructive result though would not be temperature-related - it'd be the changes in rainfall patterns. One estimate I saw was that the UK's arable land percentage would drop from 32% to 7%, due to our summers becoming much drier.

[raz.org.rain]

  @Wade 19°c slap bang in the middle of an El Niño winter too.

[Frigid]

  @Weather Enthusiast91

This. We pretty much get a warm record every year now, getting a cold one is incredibly rare. Last year we had two record breaking warm months, and now this. In the last 10 years the only months I'd describe as cold are February 2018, January 2021, April 2021, May 2021. The first half of 2021 was interesting as it was the first time we saw a pretty cold first half since 2013, of course it didn't last. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

  @Frigid No, 2023 did not have two record breaking warm months - only one, and that was September.  June 2023 was the warmest since 1846 but that month's CET was still a fair bit below the all time warmest June CET in 1846.

Edited January 28 by North-Easterly Blast

[Dark Horse]

  @Frigid Yes the last time we had a below average CET month was Dec 2022. It's been dire for cold since then. Today a good example with 19c in Scotland, a one off perhaps, but will this become more frequent in winter from now on??

[Wade]

  @Dark Horse Apart from winter 2017/18 and 2020/21, every winter has been god awful since 2013 including this one

[qwertyK]

  @Dark Horse I've just seen that, a similar thing happened in Scotland end of December 2021 I think? It was like 18.7 at like 4am in the morning and no one noticed it 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

  @Weather Enthusiast91 I agree that cold records would be nice, but I can't agree with 19c in January, in the Scottish Highlands, being uninteresting / yawn-inducing. That's quite a spectacular record.

19c is a warm day in that part of the world in summer, let alone in Winter! 

Edited January 28 by In Absence of True Seasons

[qwertyK]

  @In Absence of True Seasons

It may seem odd, but this is a natural phenonemon due to the Foehn effect. A lot of these ridiculously unseasonable events happen in Scotland.  Like I said in december 2019 it reached 18.7c at like 4am in the morning. 

UK's new warmest December confirmed in Highlands

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The data recorded last month at Achfary has been validated by meteorologists and showed a temperature of 18.7C.

It had reached similar tempreatures in december in scotland in 1948.

Whilst in Jan 2020 it reached 19C in Norway.

It got very warm in scotland and northern ireland in like November 2022 

High temperatures: NI experiences warmest November night on record

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The lowest temperature recorded was 14.5C in County Londonderry, breaking a previous record from 1947.

 

We don't know how unusual these events are, a lot of these places wouldn't have had weather stations historically and so few people live in them it's near impossible to actually confirm. Google forecasted 12C for that Scottish village today.

Incidentally, the CET for this month so far is only 0.48C degrees above average.

Seems more crazy that last January it was getting up to 20C in much of central/Eastern Europe.

I went to Belgrade the other week, first day I got there it was 17C, next day it was 2C and heavy snow. 

Edited January 28 by qwertyK