UK winters: are they getting colder?

[qwertyK]

It seems like probably since 2020 that although summer tempreatures are getting hotter, winter feels a lot colder. Probably because we've had some mild winters and very mild winter days, like in 2019 when we had a 21C day in February. But I think about the last few years. The winter of 2021 had a fair bit of snow where I am in the south anyway. The following December in 2022 we had really heavy snowfall and lows of like -6C in my area (essex). March 2023 we had some very late snow. This November I was in Southampton and it snowed and didn't get above zero one day. Then it snowed a few days ago, didn't settle but we've had some very low tempreatures being forecast, again, I speak for the southeast. I know it's nothing compared to say 1963 or other years but it seems like there is a trend towards colder maxima in winter, like I can't remember the last time before 2021 where I live where 2C or 4C was the max forecast for some days unless say, 2018 or 2017. Again not much snow but some very cold temps. I think the current cold weather is quite interesting considering it should be pretty mild given El Nino etc. Feels like summers are getting hotter, and winters are getting colder. 

[cheese]

No, they’re not. 

[LetItSnow!]

It's far too early in the decade to determine but I would say probably no. Depends on the month though. February is rapidly warming and many in recent years have been warmer than a normal March. January on the other hand has been mostly unexceptional in recent years with no close shots at a record warm January, most just being in the normal range.

[Don]

I would say no.

[qwertyK]

7 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

It's far too early in the decade to determine but I would say probably no. Depends on the month though. February is rapidly warming and many in recent years have been warmer than a normal March. January on the other hand has been mostly unexceptional in recent years with no close shots at a record warm January, most just being in the normal range.

Maybe the title is misleading, as there is a wider european context - some periods of exceptional cold (and warmth) in european winters, like in Spain in 2021, and I think Moscow this year had its snowiest winter, near record cold in Scandinavia as well.  That said i do remember last year how ridiculously warm places as far north as poland got in january, like 20c and 27C in the north of spain

Edited January 14 by qwertyK

[Metwatch]

Agree with others, they aren't getting colder, but recently here and northwards have gotten a little better for snowfall. Winters 2013-14 up to 2016-17 weren't good here. Then came 2017-18, good for snow. 2018-2019 can't remember there being much but south got some early 2019. 2019-2020 basically none. 2020-2021 better, few cm January and Feb, more north / east of here. 2021-2022 only November few cm snow. 2022-2023, decent snow south, here had to wait until March for a few inches. Then 2023-2024 so far about 2cm very start of December, more further north in England.

Graph here does show much less cold winters relative to 1981-2010 average via RoostWeather, link here: http://starlingsroost.ddns.net/weather/ukobs/ukgraphs.php?type=monthlyregional&field=year&param=Tmean&region=England_and_Wales&month=13&anom=8110

 

[karyo]

No season is getting colder, everything is warming up sadly!

[Sceptical]

The trend for the UK winters is milder and wetter.

[Bradley in Kent]

Hello all,

I'm going to completely over answer this question!

Firstly, from a stat POV, the answer is a straight no.

However, a time series graph does not tell the full story. For example you have two winters, Winter A and Winter B.

Winter A is overall slightly below average (day highs 3c to 8c with a frost three times a week) but no prolonged cold spells with lasting snow. You can imagine lots of Northwesterlies and cool zonal flow.

Winter B is overall above average (day highs 8c - 13c and no frost) but includes two cold spells that delivered deep snow and ice days. You can imagine lots of Southerlies but the two cold spells being Easterly. 

Winter B would be much more memorable because of the two cold spells, despite being warmer overall. 

My impression is that we're getting more winters like Winter B, examples being 2012, 2018, 2021 and 2022.

I was born in the 90s so my baseline is very low. Many on here will have childhood memories of legendary cold spells in the 60s, 70s and 80s. However its clear in the stats that there was a major step change around 1988 to 1990 where winters have since been mild with the exception of 2008 to 2013. 

From my perspective, my childhood was snow starved being in the late 90s early 00s. Snow never went over the kerb and it always melted within 24 hours creating a panicked 'quick, let's play before it all melts!'. Here in Kent, I can say in my lifetime there's been a slight increase in deep snow events in the last 20 years which I know is an incredibly short period to assess! 

Anyway, that's my answer!

[Rob 79812010]

Not sure about getting colder. From 2009 to 2018 we had a 50 50 split of cold or mild winters. Prior to that we'd only had one cold winter in 15 years. Recent years trending mild again. The strange thing for where I live (lowland manchester), we have more years  now where we get snow. In 80's winters were often cold but otherthan 81, pretty snowless. 90's probably more snow events but milder. Same for 2000's. In last 7 years we've had snow in 5 of those years. Spectacular in 2018 and usual 2cm otherwise. My point I guess is, why is it snowing more. Beats me!!!! Most have been Irish sea snow showers which in fairness always were Manchesters friend. 78 and 2010 best examples. The classic sw depressions moving ne which are great for South, Midlands and Yorkshire, are rubbish for those living in these parts. Sorry, gone way off topic!!!

[Froze were the Days]

12 hours ago, qwertyK said:

It seems like probably since 2020 that although summer tempreatures are getting hotter, winter feels a lot colder. Probably because we've had some mild winters and very mild winter days, like in 2019 when we had a 21C day in February. But I think about the last few years. The winter of 2021 had a fair bit of snow where I am in the south anyway. The following December in 2022 we had really heavy snowfall and lows of like -6C in my area (essex). March 2023 we had some very late snow. This November I was in Southampton and it snowed and didn't get above zero one day. Then it snowed a few days ago, didn't settle but we've had some very low tempreatures being forecast, again, I speak for the southeast. I know it's nothing compared to say 1963 or other years but it seems like there is a trend towards colder maxima in winter, like I can't remember the last time before 2021 where I live where 2C or 4C was the max forecast for some days unless say, 2018 or 2017. Again not much snow but some very cold temps. I think the current cold weather is quite interesting considering it should be pretty mild given El Nino etc. Feels like summers are getting hotter, and winters are getting colder. 

Monthly CET's prove that they're not!...we do get the odd cold spell/snap from time to time whether snowy or not (mainly not where I live) and nothing unusual in that but these spells are soon offset by milder continuous spells soon after as we'll find out after this week - look how continuously mild it was from mid-December into the New Year.

Without doubt getting milder.

Edited January 14 by Froze were the Days

[sundog]

100% getting milder. How anyone could think they are getting colder is either dillusional or in denial. 

[qwertyK]

4 minutes ago, sundog said:

100% getting milder. How anyone could think they are getting colder is either dillusional or in denial. 

I'm saying within the context of say the last ten years. 2014, 2015, 2016, 2019 and 2020 were all pretty mild winters from what I recall

[SummerShower]

I think the trend overall is for milder winters.  I do think though this is primarily because we get more 'silly' mild spells nowadays, where the CET is at 9 or 10C+ for days on end.  When the pattern gets in the right place we still get the very low temperatures.  Think about December 2022, when the CET was just above freezing for the first 17 days, but then there was a lot of this 'silly' mild weather in the 2nd half.  Had it just been 'normal' mild, say 5 to 8C days, we could have come off with a notably cold month.  It's these very mild spells that mean we don't get remarkably cold CET months anymore which in turn add up to milder winters.  Other months this has been notable are February 2021, which included the lowest February temperature since 1955 but had a silly mild 2nd half.  January 23 to some degree had silly mild to start, then a cold 2nd half.  Both months had 5.something CETs I.e. unremarkable, despite some good cold weather in them.

I do find that when the Atlantic is in charge (which yes, that is the default UK winter pattern), we tend to have more south-westerlies thanks to the Azores high being more prevalent.  What I feel is missing from our winters now are spells of colder zonality, which help to keep temperatures down somewhat, when the Atlantic is in charge.  I feel this is the reason our winters are milder, rather than becuase our cold spells becoming less intense (which they aren't).  So the warming world is causing a pattern change to some degree here.

So, overall yes winters are milder now, and the above is the reason for it I believe.

Edited January 14 by SummerShower

[Bradley in Kent]

14 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

I think the trend overall is for milder winters.  I do think though this is primarily because we get more 'silly' mild spells nowadays, where the CET is at 9 or 10C+ for days on end.  When the pattern gets in the right place we still get the very low temperatures.  Think about December 2022, when the CET was just above freezing for the first 17 days, but then there was a lot of this 'silly' mild weather in the 2nd half.  Had it just been 'normal' mild, say 5 to 8C days, we could have come off with a notably cold month.  It's these very mild spells that mean we don't get remarkably cold CET months anymore which in turn add up to milder winters.  Other months this has been notable are February 2021, which included the lowest February temperature since 1955 but had a silly mild 2nd half.  January 23 to some degree had silly mild to start, then a cold 2nd half.  Both months had 5.something CETs I.e. unremarkable, despite some good cold weather in them.

I do find that when the Atlantic is in charge (which yes, that is the default UK winter pattern), we tend to have more south-westerlies thanks to the Azores high being more prevalent.  What I feel is missing from our winters now are spells of colder zonality, which help to keep temperatures down somewhat, when the Atlantic is in charge.  I feel this is the reason our winters are milder, rather than becuase our cold spells becoming less intense (which they aren't).  So the warming world is causing a pattern change to some degree here.

So, overall yes winters are milder now, and the above is the reason for it I believe.

I agree with this entirely

[lassie23]

I had a bbq in November, enough said lol

[qwertyK]

55 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I had a bbq in November, enough said lol

 

1 hour ago, SummerShower said:

I think the trend overall is for milder winters.  I do think though this is primarily because we get more 'silly' mild spells nowadays, where the CET is at 9 or 10C+ for days on end.  When the pattern gets in the right place we still get the very low temperatures.  Think about December 2022, when the CET was just above freezing for the first 17 days, but then there was a lot of this 'silly' mild weather in the 2nd half.  Had it just been 'normal' mild, say 5 to 8C days, we could have come off with a notably cold month.  It's these very mild spells that mean we don't get remarkably cold CET months anymore which in turn add up to milder winters.  Other months this has been notable are February 2021, which included the lowest February temperature since 1955 but had a silly mild 2nd half.  January 23 to some degree had silly mild to start, then a cold 2nd half.  Both months had 5.something CETs I.e. unremarkable, despite some good cold weather in them.

I do find that when the Atlantic is in charge (which yes, that is the default UK winter pattern), we tend to have more south-westerlies thanks to the Azores high being more prevalent.  What I feel is missing from our winters now are spells of colder zonality, which help to keep temperatures down somewhat, when the Atlantic is in charge.  I feel this is the reason our winters are milder, rather than becuase our cold spells becoming less intense (which they aren't).  So the warming world is causing a pattern change to some degree here.

So, overall yes winters are milder now, and the above is the reason for it I believe.

It's odd because the first half of autumn was ridiculously mild, which usually makes for mild winters, plus el nino, but like its getting down to lows of -4C and -5C overnight in quite wide parts of the south of england. I remmeber say winter 2020 i don't think the minima in essex got below 6C. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Well possibly ......

[Rob 79812010]

They are this week!!!

[In Absence of True Seasons]

No

[Chasbrown]

Other than the far North of Scotland I'd say our winters are definitely getting milder. Probably past the tipping point as our climate has changed.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Well as for anyone saying that UK winters are getting colder, the truth is, and you cannot hide the facts, that we have not had a below average winter since 2012-13 (by 1961-90 standards) in terms of the overall CET - that is now over ten years ago.  We have also not had an overall really cold winter since 2009-10 - 14 years ago, and we have not had a single notably cold month since December 2010 (13 years ago), though that said if you count it as winter the last single notably cold month that we had was March 2013.

Putting the above into perspective, all this evidence points against winters in the UK getting colder.  No winter in the UK since 2012-13 could reasonably be described as being colder than average, and since then winters 2017-18 and 2020-21 were respectable for the standards of the last 35 years or so, but still slightly above the 1961-90 and most earlier averages.  Most winters since 2012-13 in the UK have been milder than average with little in the way of cold outbreaks (at least from HLB and notherlies / easterlies) and a fair few in the very mild category.

Edited January 14 by North-Easterly Blast

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Definitely not. Whilst cold spells are still very much possible and happen at some point in almost if not every single winter, what is considered as cold now was once considered as fairly mild. This current spell for example is on the cold side for today's standards. But 40 years ago nobody would have thought anything of it and would have just got on with it.

With the way things are going, we'd be chasing frost let alone snow.

Edited January 14 by Weather Enthusiast91

[In Absence of True Seasons]

29 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Definitely not. Whilst cold spells are still very much possible and happen at some point in almost if not every single winter, what is considered as cold now was once considered as fairly mild. This current spell for example is on the cold side for today's standards. But 40 years ago nobody would have thought anything of it and would have just got on with it.

With the way things are going, we'd be chasing frost let alone snow.

I think it's about looking at the overall patterns for Winters as opposed to focusing on the specific cold spells (or Arctic Blasts if you're the Daily Mail) imo. 

Sure, we may get a 3-5 day period in a winter month where it's colder than average, which people then point to and say "See, it's still cold!" whilst overlooking the surrounding 2/3 weeks that have been milder and wetter than average. 

December 2023 to early Jan 2024 a classic example of this. Sure, the current spell is below average temps, but it doesn't negate the prior 4 solid weeks of mild and wet conditions...including temps of 14/15c on some of the December days in my area!

It's a bit like if most days in summer were getting colder and wetter, but we still have the odd heatwave. It doesn't make a good simmer, despite said occasional heatwave.

Edited January 14 by In Absence of True Seasons

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Definitely not. Whilst cold spells are still very much possible and happen at some point in almost if not every single winter, what is considered as cold now was once considered as fairly mild. This current spell for example is on the cold side for today's standards. But 40 years ago nobody would have thought anything of it and would have just got on with it.

With the way things are going, we'd be chasing frost let alone snow.

The fact is ,this week has the potential to snow just about anywhere in the uk, but for the majority of the population, it won't,  because of the lack of moisture/ fronts / instability etc. Fact is it doesn't have to be that cold to snow, it can snow a few degrees above freezing ,I've known it snow at 5c/41f ,but because the dewpoints are sub-zero that's what is needed.....