UK winters: are they getting colder?

[raz.org.rain]

General rule of thumb is that, overall, warming is the observable trend. But when cold snaps happen, they can be amplified and strike with a vengeance, despite being very brief. This can create the impression of an overly cold season despite everything before and after being above average conditions.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 hours ago, sundog said:

100% getting milder. How anyone could think they are getting colder is either dillusional or in denial. 

exactly, this thread is pointless!

[cheeky_monkey]

On 13/01/2024 at 17:25, qwertyK said:

It seems like probably since 2020 that although summer tempreatures are getting hotter, winter feels a lot colder. Probably because we've had some mild winters and very mild winter days, like in 2019 when we had a 21C day in February. But I think about the last few years. The winter of 2021 had a fair bit of snow where I am in the south anyway. The following December in 2022 we had really heavy snowfall and lows of like -6C in my area (essex). March 2023 we had some very late snow. This November I was in Southampton and it snowed and didn't get above zero one day. Then it snowed a few days ago, didn't settle but we've had some very low tempreatures being forecast, again, I speak for the southeast. I know it's nothing compared to say 1963 or other years but it seems like there is a trend towards colder maxima in winter, like I can't remember the last time before 2021 where I live where 2C or 4C was the max forecast for some days unless say, 2018 or 2017. Again not much snow but some very cold temps. I think the current cold weather is quite interesting considering it should be pretty mild given El Nino etc. Feels like summers are getting hotter, and winters are getting colder. 

as someone who grew up in Essex in the 70s and 80s into the 90s ..snow fall and overnight lows of -6c happened pretty much every single winter when i lived there ..only very occasional years there would be little in the way of snow or cold but others there would be bucket loads of the stuff and temps down to -15c and no higher than -5c ..im pretty sure since the early 1990s that has happened maybe once or twice in Essex.

Summers are hotter and winters are milder ..even though i now live in Canada i can see that my old stomping ground doesn't get the snow and cold it used to.

[Don]

5 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

as someone who grew up in Essex in the 70s and 80s into the 90s ..snow fall and overnight lows of -6c happened pretty much every single winter when i lived there ..only very occasional years there would be little in the way of snow or cold but others there would be bucket loads of the stuff and temps down to -15c and no higher than -5c ..im pretty sure since the early 1990s that has happened maybe once or twice in Essex.

Summers are hotter and winters are milder ..even though i now live in Canada i can see that my old stomping ground doesn't get the snow and cold it used to.

I had relatives living in north Kent and remember them having snow falls most winters up until the late 80's/early 90's, but since then, very few and far between.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

14 hours ago, Don said:

I had relatives living in north Kent and remember them having snow falls most winters up until the late 80's/early 90's, but since then, very few and far between.

Many folk on here speak fondly about the winters of the 80s on Britain, because there were indeed many cold winter seasons in that decade e.g. the 1981-82 'cold wave'. It made me wonder, were the 80s uniquely wintry / snowy for some reason? How do they compare to the winters of the 70s, 60s and 50s for example?

Can't speak about the 80s obviously as I wasn't born, but I was a child in the 90s (in Essex) and do not recall seeing snow that frequently in winter. We would get "snow days" at school, which were a pure excitement because A) you got the day off and so would just go to the park with friends for snowball fights, and B) they were very rare. Some years would have 1 or 2 snow days max, other years zero. 

I've actually experienced bigger and more prolonged periods of snow / proper wintry weather in the last 5/6 years than during my childhood in the 90s. 2018 with Beast from the East, February 2021 with the significant (for my area anyway) snowy spell, and then last year in early to mid December where that's undoubtedly the longest I've ever seen snow remaining on the ground in my area in December. 

Edited January 16 by In Absence of True Seasons

[cheese]

3 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Many folk on here speak fondly about the winters of the 80s on Britain, because there were indeed many cold winter seasons in that decade e.g. the 1981-82 'cold wave'. It made me wonder, were the 80s uniquely wintry / snowy for some reason? How do they compare to the winters of the 70s, 60s and 50s for example?

Can't speak about the 80s obviously as I wasn't born, but I was a child in the 90s (in Essex) and do not recall seeing snow that frequently in winter. We would get "snow days" at school, which were a pure excitement because A) you got the day off and so would just go to the park with friends for snowball fights, and B) they were very rare. Some years would have 1 or 2 snow days max, other years zero. 

I've actually experienced bigger and more prolonged periods of snow / proper wintry weather in the last 5/6 years than during my childhood in the 90s. 2018 with Beast from the East, February 2021 with the significant (for my area anyway) snowy spell, and then last year in early to mid December where that's undoubtedly the longest I've ever seen snow remaining on the ground in my area in December. 

The 60s to 80s period was indeed quite cold and snowy compared to the periods before and after - not just in the UK but Europe in general. I suspect many people alive today grew up during that period and consequently have the expectation that our winters should be colder and snowier than they actually are. Even the summers during that period were cool.
 

I was born in 1987 so also grew up in the 90s and I don’t remember much snow then either (1991 and 1995 stand out but I was a bit too young to remember 1991) , and the 2000s were poor too. It wasn’t until 2009 that we finally got a taste of proper winter.

Edited January 16 by cheese

[Daniel*]

Colder on awful mid 2010s perhaps that was characterised when cool by cold zonal and we do awful for that down here, here in London I’ve noticed more cold spells in recent years with colder night temperatures, definitely more northerly winds, while snow has been generally lacking it is a slight improvement on very low baseline. 

[cheeky_monkey]

3 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Many folk on here speak fondly about the winters of the 80s on Britain, because there were indeed many cold winter seasons in that decade e.g. the 1981-82 'cold wave'. It made me wonder, were the 80s uniquely wintry / snowy for some reason? How do they compare to the winters of the 70s, 60s and 50s for example?

Can't speak about the 80s obviously as I wasn't born, but I was a child in the 90s (in Essex) and do not recall seeing snow that frequently in winter. We would get "snow days" at school, which were a pure excitement because A) you got the day off and so would just go to the park with friends for snowball fights, and B) they were very rare. Some years would have 1 or 2 snow days max, other years zero. 

I've actually experienced bigger and more prolonged periods of snow / proper wintry weather in the last 5/6 years than during my childhood in the 90s. 2018 with Beast from the East, February 2021 with the significant (for my area anyway) snowy spell, and then last year in early to mid December where that's undoubtedly the longest I've ever seen snow remaining on the ground in my area in December. 

i left Essex for good in 1992..Feb 1991 was very cold and snowy as was Dec 1990 somewhat..still had friends and relatives there well into the 2000s.. Dec 1995 and Dec 1996 had cold snowy spells 

[Sweatyman]

Colder? You're having a laugh!

[Airedalejoe]

Born in '63. Always remember reading text books about the lowland UK climate, long before the internet. One description stated that winters were mild with very occasional snowfall which rarely hung around for more than a few days. Love the snow and the majority of my winters were disappointing as snow sometimes briefly fell and rarely lasted more than a few days.

Exceptions I remember, 77/79, 81/82, 87, 91, then a very poor period, a certain Ian Brown on here proclaiming winter snow was over etc. Then came 09/10, 13, 18 etc. 

We've had 3 ice days so far this winter, a couple of small snowfalls and a lowest temp of -7. Plenty winters past had no ice days.

People have a tendency to look back with rose tinted glasses and describe past typical winter weather as something at odds with our actual climate.

[Wade]

"Are UK winters getting colder" What sort of a question is that? It is obvious that winters are becoming much milder and far less snowier. 

[SussexSnowman]

In a warming world, I doubt any cooling or winters becoming colder is ever going to happen. Growing up in the late 80's into the 90's, I recall some (what I consider to be) memorable snow/cold events events (Jan 1987, Feb 1991, Feb 1993, Feb1994 and 1995/96). Being a February child, it is sad to see that month lose it's snow events more and more as years go by. From 1997 to 2001, saw a real famine of snow in my part of the world. I recall between autumn 1999 and winter 2000 the rain seemed never ending and that is the first time I recalled such a mild wet winter (played football locally at the time and we lost 3 months of games because of waterlogged pitches). I recall a snow event March 2001 I think it was and after that it was Winter 2004/5 before we saw anything significant snow wise and again in January 2007. February 2009 was something exceptional, before the absolute classic Winter of 2010/11. Snow events down here in Sussex becoming more and more rarer. Since the god awful winter of 2013/14, we've had 4 (including the BoE) decent snow days. 

Being someone who lurks in the model thread, what I see year on year is when something sets up to deliver cold, it doesn't come off. That really shows how complex and complicated our winters have become. It doesn't annoy me when poster compare models to those famous events of yesterday, but even when looking at those comparisons, it shows me how much of a big difference the little synoptics are having on our winters and it's edge of a knife edge. so take Friday, MetO had my neck of the woods in the game for a snow event. 36 hours later, poof. Gone. Yesteryear I am sure we'd all have struck white gold. 

A sad thought for me (being someone who doesn't have kids) is the generations yet to come who may never experience or see snow in this country given how rarer it is becoming in my lifetime. So for me now the tiniest snow flurry or even cold sunny frosty days get me a bit excited as they seem so rare these days  bloody climate change! 

[raz.org.rain]

1 minute ago, SussexSnowman said:

In a warming world, I doubt any cooling or winters becoming colder is ever going to happen. Growing up in the late 80's into the 90's, I recall some (what I consider to be) memorable snow/cold events events (Jan 1987, Feb 1991, Feb 1993, Feb1994 and 1995/96). Being a February child, it is sad to see that month lose it's snow events more and more as years go by. From 1997 to 2001, saw a real famine of snow in my part of the world. I recall between autumn 1999 and winter 2000 the rain seemed never ending and that is the first time I recalled such a mild wet winter (played football locally at the time and we lost 3 months of games because of waterlogged pitches). I recall a snow event March 2001 I think it was and after that it was Winter 2004/5 before we saw anything significant snow wise and again in January 2007. February 2009 was something exceptional, before the absolute classic Winter of 2010/11. Snow events down here in Sussex becoming more and more rarer. Since the god awful winter of 2013/14, we've had 4 (including the BoE) decent snow days. 

Being someone who lurks in the model thread, what I see year on year is when something sets up to deliver cold, it doesn't come off. That really shows how complex and complicated our winters have become. It doesn't annoy me when poster compare models to those famous events of yesterday, but even when looking at those comparisons, it shows me how much of a big difference the little synoptics are having on our winters and it's edge of a knife edge. so take Friday, MetO had my neck of the woods in the game for a snow event. 36 hours later, poof. Gone. Yesteryear I am sure we'd all have struck white gold. 

A sad thought for me (being someone who doesn't have kids) is the generations yet to come who may never experience or see snow in this country given how rarer it is becoming in my lifetime. So for me now the tiniest snow flurry or even cold sunny frosty days get me a bit excited as they seem so rare these days  bloody climate change! 

Rather astonishingly, there's plenty of weather enthusiasts who deny that climate change is a thing, despite having the best possible evidence and statistics to prove that it is indeed happening.

[Daniel*]

January is one of the exceptions of winter months, temperature trends in London in last 30 years has been quite static.

Edited January 16 by Daniel*

[Methuselah]

2 hours ago, Airedalejoe said:

Born in '63. Always remember reading text books about the lowland UK climate, long before the internet. One description stated that winters were mild with very occasional snowfall which rarely hung around for more than a few days. Love the snow and the majority of my winters were disappointing as snow sometimes briefly fell and rarely lasted more than a few days.

Exceptions I remember, 77/79, 81/82, 87, 91, then a very poor period, a certain Ian Brown on here proclaiming winter snow was over etc. Then came 09/10, 13, 18 etc. 

We've had 3 ice days so far this winter, a couple of small snowfalls and a lowest temp of -7. Plenty winters past had no ice days.

People have a tendency to look back with rose tinted glasses and describe past typical winter weather as something at odds with our actual climate.

Indeed -- it'll take a few years' more warming for snow to become non-existent, IMO.

[LetItSnow!]

I’m cautious to say snow will be a thing of the past because other parts of the world, most notably North America, have seen brutal cold outbreaks amongst the warming trend which makes me think that surely it is possible and will remain possible for a while yet. I highly anticipate the rest of this decade and the rest of the century to watch climate patterns play out. Inter-decadal remains at play and always will plus I’m always hopeful about technology playing a role in mitigating or even reversing warming, but that could be a way off yet. 

It seems we’ve constantly been very close to very cold and snowy conditions but consistently missed out in recent decades. Off the top of my head, January 2002 and January 2017 had heavy snowfall further south and into areas like Greece whereas we remained high and dry under a centrally located high pressure system. Only recently we’ve seen late 2023 and early 2024 be very cold across Scandinavia but we’ve barely tapped into it at all and had a very warm same period. Only February and March of 2018 we got lucky. I’m inclined to believe we’ll get lucky again. Bring on the cloud seeding! (Only a little bit sarcastic )

[Penguin16]

Becoming milder, more boring and bland unfortunately.

[WYorksWeather]

The biggest problems we have in getting anything notably cold are basically a double whammy. Firstly you have the extremely rapid warming in the Arctic and Scandinavia, which means that our cold sources are increasingly mild (again, there are exceptions to every rule, before anyone mentions the recent extreme cold in Scandinavia). We also have a very mild North Atlantic, particularly in the directions near the Azores where we draw our south-westerly winds from.

This means that we often get attempted northerlies or easterlies that fail to deliver much beyond cold rain or sleet except in Scotland or at elevation. Then the wind turns south-westerly and the temperatures easily goes into double figures by day and high single figures by night. January seems to be least affected by these trends of the three winter months. This probably makes a certain amount of sense, as the Atlantic isn't  as active as it is in December, and there's not the same potential for solar heating as there is in February (especially the latter half).

But if you look at February and December, it's easy to see what is happening. February increasingly takes on spring-like characteristics with sometimes warm sunshine in the latter half, and December is becoming more autumnal, with wet and stormy becoming more common, similar to what we typically associate with November. Those months have warmed around 1C on average in just the last 30 years. It doesn't sound like much but at the extremes of the temperature distribution it massively reduces the chance of cold and snow and increases the chance of double-digit daytime maxima, which are now pretty unremarkable.

[raz.org.rain]

13 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

The biggest problems we have in getting anything notably cold are basically a double whammy. Firstly you have the extremely rapid warming in the Arctic and Scandinavia, which means that our cold sources are increasingly mild (again, there are exceptions to every rule, before anyone mentions the recent extreme cold in Scandinavia). We also have a very mild North Atlantic, particularly in the directions near the Azores where we draw our south-westerly winds from.

This means that we often get attempted northerlies or easterlies that fail to deliver much beyond cold rain or sleet except in Scotland or at elevation. Then the wind turns south-westerly and the temperatures easily goes into double figures by day and high single figures by night. January seems to be least affected by these trends of the three winter months. This probably makes a certain amount of sense, as the Atlantic isn't  as active as it is in December, and there's not the same potential for solar heating as there is in February (especially the latter half).

But if you look at February and December, it's easy to see what is happening. February increasingly takes on spring-like characteristics with sometimes warm sunshine in the latter half, and December is becoming more autumnal, with wet and stormy becoming more common, similar to what we typically associate with November. Those months have warmed around 1C on average in just the last 30 years. It doesn't sound like much but at the extremes of the temperature distribution it massively reduces the chance of cold and snow and increases the chance of double-digit daytime maxima, which are now pretty unremarkable.

The odd part is that we seem to get pretty persistent northerly breezes in early and mid spring, with a really harsh icy chill too. But during the winter months, it's a much rarer setup.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

17 hours ago, SussexSnowman said:

so take Friday, MetO had my neck of the woods in the game for a snow event. 36 hours later, poof. Gone. Yesteryear I am sure we'd all have struck white gold. 

Indeed. Definitely a case of us needing to have 'all the ducks in a row' (to use a corny, corporate term haha) for the properly snowy/wintry conditions to land. I think it doesn't help either that our climate is naturally milder and wetter in Winter than a lot of other places in Northern Europe and Scandinavia, so climate change is just amplifying this 'maritime' element. 

Scandinavia, the Baltics and most of Eastern Europe still get very snowy and wintry conditions right throughout winter, every year. As do North America. Parts of Sweden, Norway, Finland etc have been experiencing some near-record cold temps over the last couple of weeks. They also had some -15, -20c+ days prior to Christmas as well. But such countries also getting warmer temps and hotter extremes in summer too...

What I'm ultimately saying is, if you're in the sort of climate where snow and proper cold is, and always was, the norm / default (so, not the British Isles, or at least most of the British Isles), you're still going to get a lot of snow and proper cold irrespective of climate change...but you'll also get milder winter temps outside of the cold periods, and warmer temps in the months that aren't winter. 

I think future generations of Brits will have to holiday in such countries if they want to experience anything properly wintry! 

Edited January 17 by In Absence of True Seasons

[SussexSnowman]

5 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Indeed. Definitely a case of us needing to have 'all the ducks in a row' (to use a corny, corporate term haha) for the properly snowy/wintry conditions to land. I think it doesn't help either that our climate is naturally milder and wetter in Winter than a lot of other places in Northern Europe and Scandinavia, so climate change is just amplifying this 'maritime' element. 

Scandinavia, the Baltics and most of Eastern Europe still get very snowy and wintry conditions right throughout winter, every year. As do North America. Parts of Sweden, Norway, Finland etc have been experiencing some near-record cold temps over the last couple of weeks. They also had some -15, -20c+ days prior to Christmas as well. But such countries also getting warmer temps and hotter extremes in summer too...

What I'm ultimately saying is, if you're in the sort of climate where snow and proper cold is, and always was, the norm / default (so, not the British Isles, or at least most of the British Isles), you're still going to get a lot of snow and proper cold irrespective of climate change...but you'll also get milder winter temps outside of the cold periods, and warmer temps in the months that aren't winter. 

I think future generations of Brits will have to holiday in such countries if they want to experience anything properly wintry! 

Agree with all of that. It's why I find some weather enthusiasts expectations unrealistically high as if snowy/cold winters have been the norm in the UK. 1947, 1962/63 and 2010/11 pure one in a billion kind of events. Our winters seem to have become much more extreme with such variations in temps where we can go from low single digit temps to double digits within a day. 

Few of my friends and family in the space of a month all went to Finland to get their snow fix.  and I am sure I'll be on that bandwagon too. 

[danm]

10 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

The odd part is that we seem to get pretty persistent northerly breezes in early and mid spring, with a really harsh icy chill too. But during the winter months, it's a much rarer setup.

Northern blocking is actually fairly common in Spring. The Atlantic enters it's annual slumber and pressure tends to rise to the north of the UK. It's why the NW of the UK often sees it's best weather of the year in April/May.

[Snowandrocks]

The last few years have actually been pretty decent for snowfall and low temperatures here in Aberdeenshire, I think we've had at least one lengthy spell each winter with deep (>20cm) snow each winter and temperatures below minus 10 (~ minus 20 on a few occasions) for several years now. 

That's absolutely not to say that the climate isn't warming on average but do remember that lack of snow in Southern England isn't necessarily representative of elsewhere in the UK and that weather events will still happen against the overall warming trend. 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

51 minutes ago, SussexSnowman said:

Agree with all of that. It's why I find some weather enthusiasts expectations unrealistically high as if snowy/cold winters have been the norm in the UK. 1947, 1962/63 and 2010/11 pure one in a billion kind of events. Our winters seem to have become much more extreme with such variations in temps where we can go from low single digit temps to double digits within a day. 

Few of my friends and family in the space of a month all went to Finland to get their snow fix.  and I am sure I'll be on that bandwagon too. 

Yeah absolutely.

Our average temps are definitely getting milder but yeah, such events like you say the 62/63 or 2010/2011 were always outliers. 

Historical narrative also paints a bit of a false picture. For instance all the old Victorian postcards and paintings, and Christmas cards with thick snow in London and the Thames being frozen over solid. That happened 1 or 2 years I think, but become sort of embedded in the public consciousness and so often made appearances in art and literature etc of the time. Makes you think that "Oh, 1 foot deep snow and Thames frozen over was normal 100/200 years ago", when it was absolutely not. The main difference back then would've been summers that were more grim!

Old Roman writings of Britain such as Tacitus speak of the climate as "wet, grey and foul" (I quote). There's no mention of snow. 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

5 hours ago, Snowandrocks said:

The last few years have actually been pretty decent for snowfall and low temperatures here in Aberdeenshire, I think we've had at least one lengthy spell each winter with deep (>20cm) snow each winter and temperatures below minus 10 (~ minus 20 on a few occasions) for several years now. 

That's absolutely not to say that the climate isn't warming on average but do remember that lack of snow in Southern England isn't necessarily representative of elsewhere in the UK and that weather events will still happen against the overall warming trend. 

Yeah, there's definitely an element of people taking the Southern half of England as a benchmark for the climate across the entire Isles, particularly as its where most of the population live and its where the media focuses on because of London etc. But of course, it's far from the case. 

Even in the South, it's been a pretty decent few years for snowfall. Snowed on December 1st this Winter, and honestly we've only just missed this snow storm by a hair's breadth - sheer luck - as its all over the top of France, Belgium etc. Last year had snow on the ground in my area for the longest spell of time I've ever seen in December, potentially even in any Winter month full stop. The year before that had the February snowstorm, during one of the 'mini-lockdowns' of Covid, where me and a friend in my 'bubble' went sledding. And lest we forget Beast from the East in 2018... Preceded by the December 2017 snowfall spell... No doubt it was snowier during these periods in areas elsewhere in the country!

I think some people forget this because we have been getting mild spells more commonly in these Winters as well, so the focus seems to have been on that, when the actual focus is (well, should be), that our Winters now seem to have the capacity for more extreme disparities in temps / conditions, or 'flips', where it could be 14/15c one day, then 0c with snow a few days later (which is precisely what has occurred this Winter).