Is our climate becoming more predictable?

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Not sure if it's me, but it seems as if our climate, which has long been notorious for its unpredictability, is losing that said unpredictability. Obviously there's exceptions in some years, but here are a few examples:

- Even during the most mediocre of summers, sudden heat spikes have become commonplace in recent years with thunderstorms being very few and far between if none at all.

- February is almost always more of a spring month rather than a winter month, with the best of the wintry weather often arriving during the first half of March.

- September is more an extension of summer these days and it is no longer that unusual for the hottest day of the year to occur during that month. However, it is almost always unsettled around the equinox as well as around the end of the month.

- November more often than not is dull, mild and sometimes wet with a cold and settled blip during the last few days.

- December often continues with the cold blip during the first half before switching to dull and mild. Christmas day in particular is always dull and mild as is New Year's day.

- Long wet periods as well as long dry periods also seem to be happening more often.

[sunny_vale]

This is an interesting observation and mirrors the thoughts I've had to a tee which shows it may be on to something! I've thought of these as mini 'subseasons' such as the predictability of a false spring in February followed by a second winter in March. Then the end of September being another one. Also, the late November and early December cold spells followed by mediocre winters are apparent too. It's strange, I wonder what causes these or if we just notice these interseasonal episodes more because they highlight the first noticeable changes?

[Metwatch]

Some more I can think of:

Mid to late spring seems to bring the driest spell of the year, though last April was wetter than recent ones, the second half of May was still quite dry. 2018 and 2022 the dryness lasted through summer though.

June and July often feature the best summer weather, then once the schools break up, the weather goes downhill, with August often poor. 2022 however buckled this trend, and to an extent 2020.

[MP-R]

Until I can plan things ahead with a fairly good idea of what the weather will be like, I would still consider our climate to be unpredictable. A climate like the Mediterranean or the Tropics is more predictable.

From one year to the next, there are too many chalk and cheese month eg July 2023 vs 2022 or May 2021 vs 2020… somebody made a thread about it very recently.

[Snowyowl9]

Its becoming more unpredictable IMO..

One extreme to the other records are going right left and centre to record wet record cold to record warmth..record dry jettream is so unpredictable,one minute its flat next its gone round the bend looping crazy..

[LetItSnow!]

18 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

record cold

If only...

[Optimus Prime]

 Snowyowl9 record cold. Christ it's been 6 years since a day could be described as one of them.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

I would argue that it's becoming more unpredictable in terms of weather forecast accuracy and what we "expect" is going to happen. Summer 2022, high summer 2023 and then the failed 'arctic blast' snowy spell last month. Predictions fail to manifest even when seemingly locked in, or seasons flip-flop in terms of conditions (one summer super dry and sunny, then the next one wet and cool etc).

The predicability seems to be moreso in terms of certain months / times of the year having certain 'trends' as you say, such as being near-guaranteed of some sort of heatwave in September, and Christmas period being mild, dull and (usually) wet.

 

[SqueakheartLW]

What is becoming more predictable:

• The polar vortex will sit near its usual Greenland home during Dec to Feb with very few exceptions.
• The Iberian High is a guarantee in winter now
• We get a false hope -NAO during Nov which then just as Dec arrives will turn raging +NAO as soon as we get into Dec
• In summer we either get large amount of -NAO with wet washout summer or we get hot and dry or a summer with extreme heat spikes.
• Spring fast becoming our best chance of snow
• SSWs failing to deliver more often and leaving UK mild rather than cold

[Snowyowl9]

 Optimus Prime

6 years that no time like yesterday..

Edited February 21 by Snowyowl9

[Summer8906]

Some of these "singularities" are appearing very regularly, certainly. I agree about the early Sep fine spell, the end of Nov cold spell and the Christmas/New Year period being mild, dull and wet. First half of March seems to be dull and unsettled before spring proper arrives and most years have a long fine spell in spring and early summer. Often there's a short cold unsettled spell at end of April, breaking the fine weather. August being unsettled almost every year is another one as well as July mostly being cloudy, though with rainfall variable. (IIRC, only 2013, 2014, 2018 and 2022 have seen sunshine at or above average since 2007).

Edited February 25 by Summer8906