Worryingly Wet & Worryingly Sunless

[SunSean]

Creating this thread as a last ditch attempt at some voodoo/fate tempting to see if there will be an increased chance of a pattern change!

If you guys all remember, last year a thread was started in June I think, titled "Worryingly dry" & pretty much the moment that thread went up, our weather turned from nice, sunny & dry to endless rain almost non stop for now getting on 10 months in a row!

I hope that after putting this thread up, we will get months of endless sunshine & mostly dry conditions for the foreseeable....until someone creates a new "Worryingly dry" thread of course....

Anyway, who here is fed up with the constant unrelenting rain & gloom??

[In Absence of True Seasons]

A wise idea, hopefully the voodoo will manifest a prolonged pattern change. 

Jokes aside, it genuinely *is* worrying. Our fields and countryside are an absolute state. Pure sponge, the ground is just sodden through at best and completely flooded at worst. We need a period of 3-4 months with below average rainfall to accommodate for this. God knows what tourists have thought of it if they decided to visit London / UK this month. Nothing worse than trying to explore a city or traipse around the countryside in weather conditions like this. 

As I speak, there is more rain lashing down heavily (after heavy rain fell for alot of the early morning). What was forecasted to be a mostly dry Saturday with the odd shower I can see is now shifting on the hourly forecast to be mostly raining with perhaps some dryness later on. Standard. I'm at the point where if the forecast predicts dry, I unequivocally just expect rain at some point that day anyway, because that's been the pattern since...October.

Edited March 2 by In Absence of True Seasons

[SunSean]

 In Absence of True Seasons Struggling to think of a worse weather pattern in recent times. Been predominantly wet & cloudy since that first SSW back in late February 2023 & other than a few odd occasions like June, early September, few days in early October & mid January, getting 2 or 3 sunny days in a row has been a feat more impossible than running along an oil covered pipe between 2 skyscrapers without any safety equipment & surviving.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 SunSean Not an exaggeration. The only consistently dry or mostly dry periods periods have been:

Feb 2023

June 2023

Sept 2023 heatwave

Brief warm and dry spell near the start of October 2023 (like 3 / 4 days)

Jan 2024 cold snap

 

Outside of that, it's been consistently wet...and cloudy too. We have had the odd dry days here and there obviously, but more than 24 hours of consecutive dryness has been very, very difficult to achieve. It's not daily rain that necessarily bothers me inherently. Many countries get rain every day, such as places in the Carribbean and Central America. But some morning rain showers or an evening Thunderstorm for 45 mins which then clear up and give way to blue skies and sun, is markedly different to 48 hours of ongoing drizzle without a scrap of sun, followed by a day of heavy rain, followed by a day of slightly less heavy rain, and then 3 dry days that are 100% overcast lol. 

The only thing that is keeping me from quitting my job and moving to the Atacama desert (driest and sunniest place in the world!) for a sabbatical, is the reality that this last 8-10 months *has* to be an outlier. It's basically the flipside to the sunnier and drier than average spell that comprised most of 2022. So, by that logic, it should (soon) flip back to drier and sunnier once again. 

[Sun Chaser]

Spring's going well! 15mm of rain in the first 35 hours and 0 hours of sunshine recorded. Currently lashing it down. Thank god we really needed today's rain after how hot and dry it was for 3 weeks last year!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 In Absence of True Seasons I'd even take a flip back to just dry and wet spells. Rather have that than have to dread another 10 month deluge starting next year

[ANYWEATHER]

3 hours ago, SunSean said:

Anyway, who here is fed up with the constant unrelenting rain & gloom??

Well I am!!! Although probably not unprecedented, this recent run of wet and gloomy weather must be up in the top ten of the last 100 years of longevity.  Just hoping we are now on a pattern change. The incidence of Easterly winds at this time of year starts to increase greater than any other time of year from now to May and including that month.  I'm hoping that those easterly winds will predominantly give us dry weather ,I'm not hoping for cold now from that direction, although it still could happen especially March and April. Just some pleasant warmth and dry, will do and some sunshine ,and if the winds blow across our beautiful islands from the east in the weeks ahead ,low humidity from that direction along with some Spring warmth will dry the ground out quickly along with an increasingly warm sun. Bring it on. ....!

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Sun Chaser I would prefer that also. It just seems like we keep getting stuck in these "ruts" of weather pattern

[matty40s]

We booked a short break in Venice 2 weeks ago. Federico Pavan , the great Italian tornado investigator had been complaining about the same weather with fog added for weeks. I promised him sunshine.

We had 4 glorious days, it broke the day after we left and now Rome has had flood warnings, Veneto is underwater, and a major Mediterranean storm progresses.

It did us the world of good.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

Minutes after I posted in this thread, the sky is clearing. The voodoo is starting to work! At least if temporarily

[SollyOlly]

I agree. Normally, because we're all weather enthusiasts, some commentary on prevailing conditions is overblown. But on this issue...it really has been SO wet, for SO long...even areas of land that I know well and rarely, if ever, show standing water are now huge puddles, or mud baths. It really is amazing, and very unpleasant! 

 In Absence of True Seasons lol, don't jinx it, mate! 

[SunSean]

 SollyOlly Even my dog hates this weather lol. He carefully tries to walk around all the wet mud & puddles but it's pretty unavoidable at the moment for the poor guy!

[SollyOlly]

 SunSean ha ha. Well, I've got a cat, and we know how much cats hate rain...he's not happy at all! 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

10 minutes ago, SollyOlly said:

lol, don't jinx it, mate

Yeah...it's raining again.

I'll take the blame for this one lol

[B87]

 In Absence of True Seasons June and September were both wetter than average. The only drier than average months in the last 12 were May 2023 and January 2024, and only just.

I hope we have a record breaking dry April-October period. Surely it's time for the SE to have the best weather for once? 

Edited March 2 by B87

[B87]

Meteociel says we have already seen 15mm overnight, to go with the 16mm from yesterday. 31mm in less than 2 days, there is now no chance for March to end up drier than average.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 B87  Interesting. June was what created the "worryingly dry" thread and discussion to begin with. With the prolonged dry and sunny weather, I'm surprised that it was not a well-below average month for Rainfall?

Perhaps it was that the wider country experienced a drier June. In fairness, we ( London and SE) were still under the N.Sea clag at the start of June, whilst elsewhere was wall to wall sunshine. 

Edited March 2 by In Absence of True Seasons

[B87]

 In Absence of True Seasons June had 58mm on 9 days, so above average in both amount and frequency. September 60mm on 5 days, so above average amount but slightly fewer wet days than average.

[matty40s]

Just in case you don't know Italian stormchasing, here he is!

 

[Weather-history]

 In Absence of True Seasons

There was nothing “worryingly dry” anyway  at the time of that post  as I pointed out that quite a bit of rainfall had fallen since the summer of 2022 up to time of that post. We were not going into a “run up to summer 1976” scenario with the summer of 2023. 
Autumn 2022 was very wet one for the SE and so was the spring of 2023.

There is a good argument to say the current wetness started after the summer of 2022 with a gear change for the worse from July 2023.

Edited March 2 by Weather-history
,

[SunSean]

 Weather-history yes, I agree. For Heathrow, from August 2022 (which had low number of rain days but heavy downpours on a few days) we have been over 50mm of rain for 17 of the last 19 months. This month will likely be 18 of 20 above 50mm. Wettest period of weather I've experienced since I got interested in the weather. 

[kold weather]

Fwiw June 23 was below average for rain using ewp:

First half was very dry to be fair.

Se England shows identical pattern as well.

From about 10th May to 1th June we had about 5mm on average.

That doesn't change anything though that this has been.a very wet period

Indeed I'd argue we will still have a shot at having the all time wettest 12 month period ad both May and June were below normal on the ewp, providing this March doesn't flip to dry.

Edited March 2 by kold weather

[MP-R]

 In Absence of True Seasons So really a Worryingly Wet thread should’ve appeared in July

[B87]

 Weather-history True, 2023 was already running above average for rainfall, even after June 2023.

 SunSean I'm 100% certain that March will be the 10th month in a row with 50mm or more, which has never happened before.

We really need a rainless spring from now, just to get back to where we should be.

Edited March 2 by B87

[CryoraptorA303]

What'll happen is we'll probably go straight from extremely wet to intensely, unbearably dry, because moderation apparently isn't a thing anymore.

Spring is an extremely turbulent time of year, especially March and the first half of April, so I don't see the current regime surviving. The upcoming deep SSW may be what is needed to finally flush it out.

As much as it may feel like it, this wet spell won't last forever. Eventually the Atlantic has to run out of steam and the pattern has to change. Whether this happens later this month or in March 2025, I don't know, but it will.

We are seriously overdue a notably dry second half of the year now, the last one being 2016, so on the principal of balance I'd bet on that. We are probably past the wettest conditions for some time now. After this winter it'll likely take 3-4 years to see anything as comparitively wet, overall since 2018 we've had some serious wet spells. We're probably due a much drier period like 1990-1997 or 2002-2007 now.

[B87]

I want to see some sub-500mm years this decade. It's coming up to 20 years since the last one.

Feels like we are going to have a summer with damp soil and green grass at this rate.

Edited March 2 by B87