Storms and Convective discussion - May 2024

[ChannelThunder]

 *Stormforce~beka* definitely worth staying up 'til about 11 as we'll be into nowcasting territory and who knows, maybe there'll be a last minute model swing in our favour? Not game over just yet for us but looking less likely than it did yesterday...

[LIGHTNING ACTION]

Friday morning looks like a chance for us north, I go to school so I might charge up a phone, put it on a tripod and then go to school while its recording, fingers crossed it drops some little lightning here and there...

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 ChannelThunder I'll be here til midnight 

[ChannelThunder]

 Eagle Eye good stuff. IOW is about to pop out from underneath the warm front aswell. It'll be good just to know we're on the right side of that for developments

[Thunderspotter]

 ChannelThunder I'm following @*Stormforce~beka*'s motto and staying on till midnight. Exciting.

[Purplepixii]

 *Stormforce~beka* I’ll try but I’m knackered so will likely sleep through it as usual

[LIGHTNING ACTION]

ill stay up until 23:00 and watch it on radar, maybe try and find some live cameras to see it over the english channel, I wont stay up all night because i'm nowhere near it

[Eagle Eye]

Belgium doing better than expected. France seems to be later than expected and a bit weaker and further south. I might begin turning my eyes to Belgium in the SE. wouldn't be surprised if we randomly saw northern France go big though, potentially more capping in place than expected. Won't know what that means exactly for us yet. 

[Metwatch]

37 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Flow is coming in from the south east and it became lighter from the east after the shower passed rather than from the west during the majority of the time here. Light levels were really poor for a moment, a bit funky

A photo and timelapse to go with that in the last hour. Closer inspection and the surface flow is coming from more of a east-north easterly but the upper level flow is south easterly. I slowed down the last second of the timelapse to see it clearer. Not easy to tell from satellite alone. Dewpoint of 13C around here, one of the highest in the country it seems.

Edited May 1 by Metwatch

[Mark Parsons]

I have a feeling that most will be chasing a white elephant tonight..........

[It's a Philcast]

That nice bright red splodge on the netweather radar is over me right now....just when i'm in the middle of doing my 8 mile walk!!

[Lynxus]

 Mark Parsons AHHA Almost certainly.

Although its very humid today. So never know!

[Lauren]

Things feel a bit more positive this time. Conditions have certainly felt right all day but I will keep a healthy skepticism as I have been disappointed too many times in the past. Good to see activity kicking off already 

[viking_smb]

 LIGHTNING ACTION I will stay up till around 1am then I will have to go to bed as need to be up at 06:50 for work

[ChannelThunder]

Explosive development on satellite around Auxerre, with Kent's name on it based on current direction.

[Thunders]

still hopefully, coffee starting to calm my ADHD so hopefully its not gonna be a 'bust' or i will still be awake either way

[Polaris]

Why are the BBC focusing on Thunderstorms in the northern Home Counties heading West. 

 

Surely Kent looks to see the heaviest downpours/possible storms 

 

 

[ChannelThunder]

 Polaris usually they're using old ECM data, their forecasts are not what they were in the Met Office days.

[Eagle Eye]

I'd say everyone. Wait till 9 then look again. Lots of waiting around if you don't. From that time onwards it seems to become interesting for looking at exact and motions. Storms will weaken and new storms will form still over France. 

[ChannelThunder]

ECM rolling out now and it favours Kent, London, Berks/Oxon etc. Worth noting how it has failed to even pick up the current Belgium/Germany storms though!

[Eagle Eye]

 ChannelThunder

Most if not all models have struggled with those so I think it's about nowcasting models haven't given us much help with this. 

[Arnie Pie]

 It's a Philcast should be coming in to view soon....looking crazy on the radar to the SW of Brum....Hope your seeing the structure

[CoventryWeather]

Lovely lone cell in the Netherlands. Potent, likely producing hail. 

Got some weak convection visible to my north. 

[Bolt From Blue]

 Eagle Eye Would this tie in with your earlier outlook today where said developments could be the difference between a SE hit and EA hit? Either way provided the energy has had a chance to ride in ahead of what is an early and poorly modelled area of development my attention is firmly on that at least for my location.

[TJS1998Tom]

 Polaris Could be one of those nights where some areas will get caught in it unexpectedly if anything new develops

Edited May 1 by TJS1998Tom