Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 31 Jan - Friday 9 Feb

Cloud and outbreaks of rain move across the UK with rainfall easing through Wednesday before a further system renews rainfall across NW areas later in the week. Rain heaviest in the northwest whilst some southern parts cloudy but remaining dry. Subsequently changeable with spells of rain at times, but also some drier, brighter interludes. The heaviest and most frequent rain will tend to be across north-western areas and accompanied by periods of strong winds. Further south and east settled periods are likely to be more prevalent, with the best of any sunshine and drier weather here. Temperatures are expected to be milder than average overall, although this doesn't preclude shorter, colder spells at times, with a risk of overnight frost and fog accompanying more settled conditions.

Saturday 10 Feb to Saturday 24 Feb

Through the first part of February changeable conditions are most likely, with the wettest and windiest conditions in the north and northwest, whilst likely to be drier further southeast, although some wet and windy spells are still possible here. Through mid-February there is an increasing likelihood of more settled conditions or winds favouring a northerly component, which will increase the chance of some colder spells and greater likelihood of wintry conditions at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Don]

45 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Saturday 10 Feb to Saturday 24 Feb

Through the first part of February changeable conditions are most likely, with the wettest and windiest conditions in the north and northwest, whilst likely to be drier further southeast, although some wet and windy spells are still possible here. Through mid-February there is an increasing likelihood of more settled conditions or winds favouring a northerly component, which will increase the chance of some colder spells and greater likelihood of wintry conditions at times.

Not quite sure if this is an upgrade or not, as in some ways it is bringing forward the chances of colder weather, but on the other hand it could be a UK high scenario reading between the lines?

Edited January 26 by Don

[WYorksWeather]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Not quite sure if this is an upgrade or not, as in some ways it is bringing forward the chances of colder weather, but on the other hand it could be a UK high?

I think important to note two things, though.

"Winds with a northerly component" - this would include a north-westerly, which would be closer to average or a little below but probably unlikely to deliver any sort of widespread snow.

"Colder" - again, we're in an exceptionally mild spell, so colder to me would only mean something close to average or a little below. We'd want to see wording like 'possibly turning significantly colder by mid-February' or something like that. The use of relative terminology here rather than absolute - "Colder" rather than "Cold" makes me think that's deliberate. Either that or I'm reading too much into it.

[Don]

26 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

I think important to note two things, though.

"Winds with a northerly component" - this would include a north-westerly, which would be closer to average or a little below but probably unlikely to deliver any sort of widespread snow.

"Colder" - again, we're in an exceptionally mild spell, so colder to me would only mean something close to average or a little below. We'd want to see wording like 'possibly turning significantly colder by mid-February' or something like that. The use of relative terminology here rather than absolute - "Colder" rather than "Cold" makes me think that's deliberate. Either that or I'm reading too much into it.

That's a good point, although they do mention a greater likelihood of wintry conditions at times, which would imply something colder than merely average or slightly below.  However, wintry conditions could be broadly for northern areas and not necessarily countrywide!  Sounds to me that they are not strongly confident just yet about a significant cold period.

Edited January 26 by Don

[Dancerwithwings]

48 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

think important to note two things, though.

"Winds with a northerly component" - this would include a north-westerly, which would be closer to average or a little below but probably unlikely to deliver any sort of widespread snow.

"Colder" - again, we're in an exceptionally mild spell, so colder to me would only mean something close to average or a little below. We'd want to see wording like 'possibly turning significantly colder by mid-February' or something like that. The use of relative terminology here rather than absolute - "Colder" rather than "Cold" makes me think that's deliberate. Either that or I'm reading too much into it.

A northerly component as stated, could also be, not just a North-westerly as you mentioned, but that could certainly include it being a North-easterly…inwhich could make it highly likely we could see snowfall

Only time will tell….Upgrade or downgrade….we’ll see

Edit ….you never know
 

Edited January 26 by Dancerwithwings

[snowblind]

I read it as a downgrade. No mention of Easterly winds and no specific mention of snow. It's certainly more vague. At that range it's unlikely to be correct so not going to worry about it too much.

 

[damianslaw]

The reference to a northerly component suggests either mid atlantic heights with a trough to the east, or heights to the NW which would return northerly/north easterlies.

Easterlies come via scandi heights, and this is not backed up by EC pressure patterns for Feb or other expected long range forecasted driver impacts which suggest heights to the NW.. so it makes more sense to mention northerlies than easterlies. 

[Penguin16]

I think 2 weeks ago or so they dropped Northerly from their forecast yet kept easterly and then reincluded northerly and now have dropped easterly. 

[Norrance]

Would certainly prefer to have Easterly in the forecast rather than Northerly for most of us. The only upside is that later in Feb the sun has more power and can set off showers in cold uppers in a much greater area away from exposed coasts.

[WYorksWeather]

2 hours ago, Don said:

That's a good point, although they do mention a greater likelihood of wintry conditions at times, which would imply something colder than merely average or slightly below.  However, wintry conditions could be broadly for northern areas and not necessarily countrywide!  Sounds to me that they are not strongly confident just yet about a significant cold period.

Also, wintry conditions would include e.g. overnight frost if I put my cynical hat on.

As you say without an indicator about how widespread it's a very bet-hedging kind of statement. It could cover anything between a bit of frost and hill snow for parts of Scotland up to widespread ice and snow across much of the UK. But I think the latter would have been stated, so my assumption is always the former unless the language clearly says widespread.

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Mild and unsettled. Possibly colder later February

Saturday 27 January to – Sunday 4 February

Changeable but mild until later

Monday 5 February to – Sunday 11 February

Mostly milder than average and unsettled

Monday 12 February to – Sunday 25 February

Possibly turning colder mid to late February

Further ahead

We will again try to pick apart the indicators for mid to late February in the next update and see if colder weather is still looking possible.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 1 Feb - Saturday 10 Feb

The first few days of February are likely to see wet and windy conditions across northern UK, with rain heaviest and most persistent in the northwest. Southern parts will be more settled but often rather cloudy, with some places remaining largely dry. Subsequently continuing changeable with spells of rain at times, but also some drier, brighter interludes. The heaviest and most frequent rain will tend to be across north-western areas and accompanied by periods of strong winds. Further south and east settled periods are likely to be more prevalent, with the best of any sunshine and drier weather here. Temperatures are expected to be milder than average overall, although this doesn't preclude shorter, colder spells at times, with a risk of overnight frost and fog accompanying more settled interludes.

Sunday 11 Feb - Sunday 25 Feb

At first, changeable conditions continue to be most likely, with the wettest and windiest weather often in the north and northwest. Further southeast, it's more likely to be drier although some wet and windy spells are still possible here. Through mid-February there is an increasing likelihood of more settled conditions or winds favouring a northerly component. This would increase the chance of some colder spells, with a greater likelihood of wintry conditions at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[lassie23]

it's on it's off it's on it's off, now from the north and not the east

[Don]

  @lassie23 as long as it doesn't shift to 'from the south, from the south west and from the west', I'm happy! 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 2 Feb - Sunday 11 Feb

Early February will continue changeable, with spells of wet and windy weather for many parts of the UK. The northwest is likely to see the heaviest and most frequent or most persistent rain, while the southeast will tend to be drier overall. At the start of this period, very mild but rather cloudy conditions are expected widely, with the best of the sunshine to the east of high ground. With time, however, westerly winds are increasingly likely to turn more northwesterly on average, leading to a greater likelihood of colder and brighter interludes within the generally mild, unsettled theme, especially across the north. These would bring an increased chance of wintry weather, with overnight frost and fog accompanying any more settled spells.

Monday 12 Feb - Monday 26 Feb

At first, changeable conditions continue to be most likely, with the wettest and windiest weather often in the north and northwest. It is more likely to be drier further southeast, although some wet and windy spells are still possible here. Through mid-February there is an increasing likelihood of more settled conditions or winds favouring a northerly component. This would increase the chance of some colder spells, with a greater likelihood of wintry conditions at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 3 Feb - Monday 12 Feb

Changeable conditions at first, with spells of mild, wet and windy weather punctuated by drier, cooler interludes. The northwest is likely to see the heaviest and most frequent or most persistent rain, while the southeast will tend to be drier overall. Largely cloudy with the best of any sunshine in the east. There is a chance colder conditions could then become established more widely during the first full week of February, with increased chance of wintry weather, especially northern and central UK, should Atlantic cloud and rain be forced to track across the south of the country. Equally, similar conditions to the start of the period could well prevail; confidence is low at this range in the weather type which will become most dominant.

Tuesday 13 Feb - Tuesday 27 Feb

Following on from earlier in the month, either the period will start changeable with temperatures overall around average and a northwest to southeast split in conditions, or colder conditions will have become established, mainly across the north. Either way, through mid-February there is an increasing likelihood of more settled conditions with winds arriving from the north. This would increase the chance of some colder spells, with a greater likelihood of wintry conditions at times, particularly in the north and east.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[RJBingham]

Each way bet 

[Chasbrown]

Yep, time to call it now, winter is over. 

[snowblind]

  @RJBingham Yeah these really are a complete waste of time.

[johncam]

Good god, did they bring their own fence 

[on the coast]

To be honest I don't why they bother with the long range stuff. I know it's trends but they rarely happen. Forecasting past 72 is foolhardy.

[syed2878]

I must say today's update isn't what i was expecting it favours the north east for anything cold in feb. hardly suprising though as feb goes on it gets mor hard for the south to get anything note werthy.

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 4 Feb - Tuesday 13 Feb

Changeable conditions at first, with spells of mild, wet and windy weather punctuated by drier, cooler interludes. The northwest is likely to see the heaviest and most frequent or most persistent rain, while the southeast will tend to be drier overall. Largely cloudy with the best of any sunshine in the east. There is a chance colder conditions could then become established more widely during the first full week of February, with increased chance of wintry weather, especially northern and central UK, should Atlantic cloud and rain be forced to track across the south of the country. Equally, similar conditions to the start of the period could well prevail; confidence is low at this range in the weather type which will become most dominant.

Wednesday 14 Feb - Wednesday 28 Feb

Following on from earlier in the month, either the period will start changeable with temperatures overall around average and a northwest to southeast split in conditions, or colder conditions will have become established, mainly across the north. Either way, through mid-February there is an increasing likelihood of more settled conditions with winds arriving from the north. This would increase the chance of some colder spells, with a greater likelihood of wintry conditions at times, particularly in the north and east.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Mild and unsettled, then colder mid-February

Wednesday 31 January to – Sunday 4 February

Changeable but generally mild

Monday 5 February to – Sunday 11 February

Milder than average for most but staying unsettled

Monday 12 February to – Monday 25 March

Possibly turning colder than average mid-February

Further ahead

With models tending to hint more at the possibility of colder weather for mid-to-late February, let's see the atmospheric drivers are still looking favourable for such conditions to develop.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[joggs]

 Summer Sun Thanks. Love to see a two week cold/snowy period then as soon as march comes,I'm looking for warmth and sun.