Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, lassie23 said:

in other words game over

Game over in what sense? Yes the met sticking with a wet windy mild theme remainder January, but then suggest likelihood of a change to colder and drier in February. 

[Don]

6 hours ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

When you say 'soon', I assume that isn't within the next 10 days though. If the Met are hinting at colder weather from around 5th to 19th Jan, which is anything from around week 2 to mid month, then what the shorter range models show until at least the very end of Jan are of irrelevance - for example the ECM only currently goes out until Jan 31st! 

 

Patience I think is required - ECMWF 42 day and CFS both hint at higher heights to the W/NW generally by mid month, which somewhat goes with the Mets words.

That comment of mine was from a few days ago before the ECMWF showed improvement.

[feb1991blizzard]

Taking a while, they must be downgrading.

[Don]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Taking a while, they must be downgrading.

That's my suspicion!  'Generally mild with the chance of brief colder spells, especially in the north'?!  

[Chasbrown]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Taking a while, they must be downgrading.

Or upgrading!

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Don said:

That's my suspicion!  'Generally mild with the chance of brief colder spells, especially in the north'?!  

yes

 

Just now, Chasbrown said:

Or upgrading!

Hopefully but they do use Global teleconective drivers to predict our weather and the GDSM products weren't great this morning, whether they use them or have their own methods i don't know, but they won't just go off computers alone at those ranges.

[Norrance]

Now just a very low chance of snow and ice in mid Feb. Sounds like a very boring mid lat high is favourite.

UK long range weather forecast

Saturday 27 Jan - Monday 5 Feb

A changeable theme with further spells of rain and showers at times, but also some drier and brighter interludes, is most likely to prevail through this forecast period. The heaviest and most frequent spells of rain will tend to be across western, especially northwestern areas where rain is likely to be heavy and persistent over hills. These are likely to be accompanied by periods of strong winds. Further south and east settled periods are likely to be more prevalent, with the best of any sunshine and drier weather here. Temperatures are expected to be widely milder than average overall, although this doesn't preclude shorter, colder spells at times, with a risk of overnight frost and fog accompanying more settled conditions, especially in the south.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Mon 22 Jan 2024

Tuesday 6 Feb - Tuesday 20 Feb

Into early February there is a slightly increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but, regardless, this does increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the north or east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Colder spells, with hazards such as snow and ice, are more likely towards mid-February, rather than earlier in the month, albeit still very low chance. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely through this period, there remains a chance of milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Mon 22 Jan 2024

VIDEO FORECASTS

Latest UK daily weather videos

Video forecasts 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

7 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Now just a very low chance of snow and ice in mid Feb. Sounds like a very boring mid lat high is favourite.

UK long range weather forecast

Saturday 27 Jan - Monday 5 Feb

A changeable theme with further spells of rain and showers at times, but also some drier and brighter interludes, is most likely to prevail through this forecast period. The heaviest and most frequent spells of rain will tend to be across western, especially northwestern areas where rain is likely to be heavy and persistent over hills. These are likely to be accompanied by periods of strong winds. Further south and east settled periods are likely to be more prevalent, with the best of any sunshine and drier weather here. Temperatures are expected to be widely milder than average overall, although this doesn't preclude shorter, colder spells at times, with a risk of overnight frost and fog accompanying more settled conditions, especially in the south.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Mon 22 Jan 2024

Tuesday 6 Feb - Tuesday 20 Feb

Into early February there is a slightly increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but, regardless, this does increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the north or east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Colder spells, with hazards such as snow and ice, are more likely towards mid-February, rather than earlier in the month, albeit still very low chance. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely through this period, there remains a chance of milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Mon 22 Jan 2024

VIDEO FORECASTS

Latest UK daily weather videos

Video forecasts 

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

This country is cursed for wintry weather (apart from Scotland obviously)

[damianslaw]

9 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Now just a very low chance of snow and ice in mid Feb. Sounds like a very boring mid lat high is favourite.

UK long range weather forecast

Saturday 27 Jan - Monday 5 Feb

A changeable theme with further spells of rain and showers at times, but also some drier and brighter interludes, is most likely to prevail through this forecast period. The heaviest and most frequent spells of rain will tend to be across western, especially northwestern areas where rain is likely to be heavy and persistent over hills. These are likely to be accompanied by periods of strong winds. Further south and east settled periods are likely to be more prevalent, with the best of any sunshine and drier weather here. Temperatures are expected to be widely milder than average overall, although this doesn't preclude shorter, colder spells at times, with a risk of overnight frost and fog accompanying more settled conditions, especially in the south.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Mon 22 Jan 2024

Tuesday 6 Feb - Tuesday 20 Feb

Into early February there is a slightly increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but, regardless, this does increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the north or east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Colder spells, with hazards such as snow and ice, are more likely towards mid-February, rather than earlier in the month, albeit still very low chance. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely through this period, there remains a chance of milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Mon 22 Jan 2024

VIDEO FORECASTS

Latest UK daily weather videos

Video forecasts 

Yes a signal for a high overhead or just to the NW possibly, but still says chance of north or east wind. A mid atlantic high ridging north could well be the end product, with the real cold air centred to our east. They are still sticking with a change at least from a atlantic spell next 2 weeks. 

[Rob 79812010]

Naughty Met O. Saying 'still a low chance' implies that's what they've been saying all along. They haven't!!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Pick the bones out of this then.

Into early February there is a slightly increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but, regardless, this does increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the north or east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Colder spells, with hazards such as snow and ice, are more likely towards mid-February, rather than earlier in the month, albeit still very low chance. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely through this period, there remains a chance of milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north.

[Rob 79812010]

9 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Naughty Met O. Saying 'still a low chance' implies that's what they've been saying all along. They haven't!!!

Just admit the forecasts changed. Not impressed at all

[Don]

A downgrade from the Metoffice as suspected.  Another wild goose chase winter! 

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Pick the bones out of this then.

Into early February there is a slightly increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but, regardless, this does increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the north or east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Colder spells, with hazards such as snow and ice, are more likely towards mid-February, rather than earlier in the month, albeit still very low chance. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely through this period, there remains a chance of milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north.

It's simply not happening!

[mulzy]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

A downgrade from the Metoffice as suspected.  Another wild goose chase winter! 

Yes, could this be the final nail this winter?  Let's hold out hope for something in mid-February but that is looking rather unlikely now.  A winter that promised much but delivered little (is that the same every year though?)

[Rob 79812010]

10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yes, could this be the final nail this winter?  Let's hold out hope for something in mid-February but that is looking rather unlikely now.  A winter that promised much but delivered little (is that the same every year though?)

The models are often wrong about wintry weather but its not often to see such bullish forecasts from bbc and meto that go so wrong. Hard to see anything much from Feb now

[lassie23]

all bases are covered so if things go t its up they won't be blamed 

[Dark Horse]

Yes not a great Met update. At the moment we've got time so I'm not throwing the towel in at all but in a couple of weeks the clock will begin to tick with this winter. So far it's hardly been amazing, cold spell end of November/start of Dec and a bit of snow and then the more recent cold which brought a cover of a couple of inches but that's standard stuff really. I was hoping for another 2009/10 and the background signals were looking very promising in late Autumn, better than they have for years. But at the end of the day that's all they are, background signals, and if something is going to go wrong for cold it will for the UK. March can be decent but unless it's a 2013 or 2018 affair it's not normally long lasting or severe.

[Don]

15 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yes, could this be the final nail this winter?  Let's hold out hope for something in mid-February but that is looking rather unlikely now.  A winter that promised much but delivered little (is that the same every year though?)

I would be inclined to forget about it now.  This winter has featured nowt but let down after let down and that doesn't look to change.  Pointless getting your hopes up!

Edited January 22 by Don

[That ECM]

The signal for a high to go north has not been as strong lately. Met suggest this was always the case. Nope, not fooling us. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Point of my last post was they are surely being slightly contradictory, as surely they would be saying an increased chance from East is equal to a very low likelyhood of snow, i can't think they would call a dry Easterly at that range.

[StretfordEnd1996]

45 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Now just a very low chance of snow and ice in mid Feb. Sounds like a very boring mid lat high is favourite.

UK long range weather forecast

Saturday 27 Jan - Monday 5 Feb

A changeable theme with further spells of rain and showers at times, but also some drier and brighter interludes, is most likely to prevail through this forecast period. The heaviest and most frequent spells of rain will tend to be across western, especially northwestern areas where rain is likely to be heavy and persistent over hills. These are likely to be accompanied by periods of strong winds. Further south and east settled periods are likely to be more prevalent, with the best of any sunshine and drier weather here. Temperatures are expected to be widely milder than average overall, although this doesn't preclude shorter, colder spells at times, with a risk of overnight frost and fog accompanying more settled conditions, especially in the south.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Mon 22 Jan 2024

Tuesday 6 Feb - Tuesday 20 Feb

Into early February there is a slightly increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but, regardless, this does increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the north or east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Colder spells, with hazards such as snow and ice, are more likely towards mid-February, rather than earlier in the month, albeit still very low chance. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely through this period, there remains a chance of milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Mon 22 Jan 2024

VIDEO FORECASTS

Latest UK daily weather videos

Video forecasts 

Looks very promising to me the fact they are still mentioning an increased chance of normal of colder spells as we head towards mid February.

 

[lassie23]

I think that winter is over and the next cold spell will be in the spring.

[johncam]

11 minutes ago, Don said:

I would be inclined to forget about it now.  This winter has featured nowt but let down after let down and that doesn't look to change.  Pointless getting your hopes up!

Yep Don , met watering down chance of colder spell. All the great background signals and looking like transient cold blips. CC must be interfering 

[Big Gally]

They added slightly to their update. The last few updates just said increased chance. To be honest think change that quick.

[Don]

48 minutes ago, johncam said:

Yep Don , met watering down chance of colder spell. All the great background signals and looking like transient cold blips. CC must be interfering 

I think it has probably been a combination of CC interfering and rotten luck?!