Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Summer Sun]

Friday 2 Feb - Friday 16 Feb

Into early February there is an increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but this increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely during early February, there remains a chance of some milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 24 Jan to Friday 2 Feb

Remaining very unsettled through the second half of next week, with further spells of rain and strong winds for most regions, although perhaps not as severe as earlier in the week. The heaviest and most frequent spells of rain and showers are likely to be in the west, with eastern areas often drier and brighter. By next weekend, high pressure is likely to become more dominant, especially across the south bringing mostly dry and bright conditions here with an increase in the likelihood of overnight fog patches. Further north, rain and strong winds are likely at times, but there should also be some drier interludes. Generally mild, although there is an increased chance of night frost as conditions become more settled in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 3 Feb - Saturday 17 Feb

Into early February there is an increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but this increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely during early February, there remains a chance of some milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Don]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Saturday 3 Feb - Saturday 17 Feb

Into early February there is an increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but this increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely during early February, there remains a chance of some milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

I thought that outlook would change today as it has remained pretty much the same for a week now.

[DOdo]

The reality is it hasn't. At this stage they would have a reasonably good idea  of what is going  to happen next month its less than two weeks away , Saying that it could change tomorrow but I  doubt it. I am curious to know if we have this easterly how potent it will be.

[karyo]

1 hour ago, DOdo said:

The reality is it hasn't. At this stage they would have a reasonably good idea  of what is going  to happen next month its less than two weeks away , Saying that it could change tomorrow but I  doubt it. I am curious to know if we have this easterly how potent it will be.

If they expected the easterly to be potent, they would mention snow showers on eastern coasts.

[Don]

1 hour ago, DOdo said:

The reality is it hasn't. At this stage they would have a reasonably good idea  of what is going  to happen next month its less than two weeks away , Saying that it could change tomorrow but I  doubt it. I am curious to know if we have this easterly how potent it will be.

If the models do not start to move back towards a colder solution soon, I will expect the forecast to change, especially with the likelihood of easterly winds and cold spells, with more emphasis on a milder outlook with spells of rain and strong winds.

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Mild and unsettled then colder in February

Saturday 20 January to – Sunday 28 January

Much milder but unsettled

Monday 29 January to – Sunday 4 February

Drier in many areas but a bit chillier

Monday 5 February to – Sunday 18 February

Possibly turning colder again in February

Further ahead

Is there any more certainty regarding the change to a possible colder period as we head through February?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 25 Jan to Saturday 3 Feb

Rather unsettled with further spells of rain and showers at times, but also some drier and brighter interludes. Initially, the heaviest and most frequent spells of rain will tend to be across western areas. However, over the weekend, rain should become mostly confined to the northwest with plenty of dry weather elsewhere. Cloud amounts probably quite variable, but some clear and sunny spells are likely, especially in the south and east. Here, some overnight frost and fog is possible. Beyond next weekend, rather changeable conditions are likely, with further spells of rain and showers for most areas, but overall, probably a good deal of dry weather, particularly in the south. Overall on the mild side, although with a risk of overnight frost and fog, especially in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 4 Feb to Sunday 18 Feb

Into early February there is an increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but, regardless, this does increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the north or east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Colder spells, with hazards such as snow and ice, are more likely towards mid-February, rather than earlier in the month. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely through this period, there remains a chance of milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[damianslaw]

If anything the met are seeing an increased chance of cold conditions second week Feb. It suggests heights building up from the south and through the UK centering to the north or north west, not north east or east. Its a cold signal and ties in with many longer range forecasts for February.. if right, it will be another week before the models begin to latch on to such evolution. 

Edited January 20 by damianslaw

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Sunday 4 Feb to Sunday 18 Feb

Into early February there is an increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but, regardless, this does increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the north or east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Colder spells, with hazards such as snow and ice, are more likely towards mid-February, rather than earlier in the month. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely through this period, there remains a chance of milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

How do you get those updates quicker than me? - still not updated for me yet. Anyway sounds like a UK high early month retrogressing to Greenland / Iceland mid month. would tie in well with some  current modelling.

[Big Gally]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

How do you get those updates quicker than me? - still not updated for me yet. Anyway sounds like a UK high early month retrogressing to Greenland / Iceland mid month. would tie in well with some  current modelling.

The met office app.

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Big Gally said:

The met office app.

Ah right, i don't have a dogs something phone, prefer laptops for all things internet.

[damianslaw]

33 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

How do you get those updates quicker than me? - still not updated for me yet. Anyway sounds like a UK high early month retrogressing to Greenland / Iceland mid month. would tie in well with some  current modelling.

Yes this is what I am seeing reading between the lines, as said if this is the correct evolution, then expect the models to latch on in a weeks time. Those of a cold persuasion I suggest take a break from model watching for a week. 

[mountain shadow]

Certainly encouraging that the Met Office are holding firm with this forecast.

My concern was that they would water them down or remove them all together. 

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes this is what I am seeing reading between the lines, as said if this is the correct evolution, then expect the models to latch on in a weeks time. Those of a cold persuasion I suggest take a break from model watching for a week. 

Suggestions on the 6z GFS, tad early for Greeny though for me that.

[lawrenk]

I agree.

There must be a pretty strong signal for them to remain that consistent this far out. For all they’re maligned, these long rangers haven’t been that far off the mark this winter, or previous ones for that matter.

[DOdo]

Upgrade if anything, Keep The Faith

[damianslaw]

20 minutes ago, DOdo said:

Upgrade if anything, Keep The Faith

When we are at a low prospect cold or warm wise as now, I often feel more optimistic of a change than when sat near average or a bit above or below.. this winter feels one of extremes either very mild or cold/possibly very cold.. same in spring, the northerly then southerly switcharounds etc, all indicative business not the norm.

Edited January 20 by damianslaw

[Don]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Certainly encouraging that the Met Office are holding firm with this forecast.

My concern was that they would water them down or remove them all together. 

Yep, that was my concern too.

[Summer Sun]

Friday 26 Jan to Sunday 4 Feb

Rather unsettled with further spells of rain and showers at times, but also some drier and brighter interludes. Initially, the heaviest and most frequent spells of rain will tend to be across western areas. However, over the weekend, rain should become mostly confined to the northwest with plenty of dry weather elsewhere. Cloud amounts probably quite variable, but some clear and sunny spells are likely, especially in the south and east. Here, some overnight frost and fog is possible. Beyond next weekend, rather changeable conditions are likely, with further spells of rain and showers for most areas, but overall, probably a good deal of dry weather, particularly in the south. Overall on the mild side, although with a risk of overnight frost and fog, especially in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[lassie23]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Friday 26 Jan to Sunday 4 Feb

Rather unsettled with further spells of rain and showers at times, but also some drier and brighter interludes. Initially, the heaviest and most frequent spells of rain will tend to be across western areas. However, over the weekend, rain should become mostly confined to the northwest with plenty of dry weather elsewhere. Cloud amounts probably quite variable, but some clear and sunny spells are likely, especially in the south and east. Here, some overnight frost and fog is possible. Beyond next weekend, rather changeable conditions are likely, with further spells of rain and showers for most areas, but overall, probably a good deal of dry weather, particularly in the south. Overall on the mild side, although with a risk of overnight frost and fog, especially in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

in other words game over

Edited January 21 by lassie23

[Summer Sun]

Monday 5 Feb to Monday 19 Feb

Into early February there is an increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but, regardless, this does increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the north or east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Colder spells, with hazards such as snow and ice, are more likely towards mid-February, rather than earlier in the month. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely through this period, there remains a chance of milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[StretfordEnd1996]

On 19/01/2024 at 20:47, Don said:

If the models do not start to move back towards a colder solution soon, I will expect the forecast to change, especially with the likelihood of easterly winds and cold spells, with more emphasis on a milder outlook with spells of rain and strong winds.

When you say 'soon', I assume that isn't within the next 10 days though. If the Met are hinting at colder weather from around 5th to 19th Jan, which is anything from around week 2 to mid month, then what the shorter range models show until at least the very end of Jan are of irrelevance - for example the ECM only currently goes out until Jan 31st! 

 

Patience I think is required - ECMWF 42 day and CFS both hint at higher heights to the W/NW generally by mid month, which somewhat goes with the Mets words.