Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 16 Jan to Thursday 25 Jan

Cold with wintry showers affecting northwestern coasts, with showers moving inland especially in the north, clearer in the south. Potential for more persistent snow through Tuesday in the northwest. There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through midweek, potentially leading to areas of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country. Confidence is low regards the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue by night with wintry showers from the northwest between further potential pulses of snow as weather fronts move in from the west these likely drawing in milder conditions by next weekend.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

Edited January 11 by Summer Sun

[Neve]

A bit more detail

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2024/disruptive-snow-possible-next-week

[Derecho]

51 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Tuesday 16 Jan to Thursday 25 Jan

Cold with wintry showers affecting northwestern coasts, with showers moving inland especially in the north, clearer in the south. Potential for more persistent snow through Tuesday in the northwest. There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through midweek, potentially leading to areas of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country. Confidence is low regards the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue by night with wintry showers from the northwest between further potential pulses of snow as weather fronts move in from the west these likely drawing in milder conditions by next weekend.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

Strangely that forecast has now vanished....

[Summer Sun]

5 minutes ago, Derecho said:

Strangely that forecast has now vanished....

Might be your browser's cache it's still on.

[Met4Cast]

7 minutes ago, Derecho said:

Strangely that forecast has now vanished....

Not for me it hasn’t.. 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 26 Jan to Friday 9 Feb

Through this period, the greatest likelihood is that high pressure will remain the more dominant influence on the weather, most likely centred somewhere to the northwest of the UK, with winds from the north or north-east perhaps more frequent than usual, with generally reduced amounts of precipitation. There is an increased chance, compared to normal of cold conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures. Even within a predominantly more settled pattern occasional frontal systems could still move in from the west or southwest at times, which while they would likely bring an interlude of slightly milder, more unsettled weather, for a time, this would also introduce a risk of snow and ice where it meets the colder air in place across the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

Edited January 11 by Summer Sun

[Norrance]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Not for me it hasn’t.. 

Yes, this is the newest version on mine mentioning the milder conditions next weekend and different from yesterdays. 

Edited January 11 by Norrance

[Methuselah]

15 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Not for me it hasn’t.. 

TBF, it disappeared for me too.

[Derecho]

6 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

TBF, it disappeared for me too.

It is back for me now as well strangely enough!

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Derecho said:

It is back for me now as well strangely enough!

They must be trying to burst aneurysms in Net Weather members' brains!

[lassie23]

9 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

They must be trying to burst aneurysms in Net Weather members' brains!

maybe it is already out of date lol

[ANYWEATHER]

45 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Yes, this is the newest version on mine mentioning the milder conditions next weekend and different from yesterdays. 

It's all guess work .......nobody really knows....

Edited January 11 by ANYWEATHER

[Don]

When they say 'milder conditions by next weekend', I assume they mean w/e 20th?  I ask because the forecast goes out to the 25th, but there is no mention of anything beyond next weekend?

[damianslaw]

On 10/01/2024 at 10:57, Summer Sun said:

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Colder next week. Milder in a fortnight

Wednesday 10 January to – Sunday 14 January

Temporarily becoming less cold

Monday 15 January to – Sunday 21 January

Unsettled and colder than normal

Monday 22 January to – Sunday 4 February

Possibly milder and wetter for a while

Further ahead

The next forecast update will take as further into February but we will also need to see if models are consistent on this expectation from next week onwards of a cold then milder then cold again sequence.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

'Possibly' wetter and milder for a while, may equate to staying cold.. 

 

[damianslaw]

17 minutes ago, Don said:

When they say 'milder conditions by next weekend', I assume they mean w/e 20th?  I ask because the forecast goes out to the 25th, but there is no mention of anything beyond next weekend?

The met office updates always leave it difficult to interpret timescales.

Milder conditions could mean for southern parts only, and in effect just less cold compared to what appears to be a very cold period ahead at least in the north with sub freezing means I expect. 

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for the week ahead

Next week

• Staying cold
• Snow showers
• Possible spell of snow in the south

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/67951787

 

[Theo]

5 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

It's all guess work .......

No it isn't.
 

[The Northern Ramper]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

If the cold starts relaxing and not pushing as far south early on then the Atlantic low could start tracking north - the only way that will happen is if the initial plunge is slower - this morning that does look like it could happen.

Id be surprised if the METO continue to mention the chance of disruption next week - but if they do, expect that low to start tracking north - if it does the temps will be borderline of course. The ECM is the first to start moving it north - so one to watch still - I guess. 

 

It is possible for the south to be bone dry and the north to have disruption, that would still work for the met office.

[Gizzy]

4 minutes ago, The Northern Ramper said:

It is possible for the south to be bone dry and the north to have disruption, that would still work for the met office.

Met office in their update early this morning quoting potential for widespread snow for North east Tuesday.

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 17 Jan to Friday 26 Jan

Staying very cold through next week. Northerly winds will bring snow showers inland at times, these most frequent across northern Scotland. Many inland areas will be mainly dry with a good deal of clear/bright weather.

During Wednesday there is a chance of an area of snow moving across parts of southern England and Wales for a time though confidence is currently low in the behaviour of this system. Towards the end of the week or more likely over next weekend, the start of a transition back to less cold conditions is likely as Atlantic systems start to arrive from the west brining spells of rain and strong winds.

Whilst conditions should gradually turn milder, this transition brings the chance of spells of snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 27 Jan to Saturday 10 Feb

After a likely milder, more unsettled spell during the preceding week, towards the end of January and into early February there is again an increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but this increases the likelihood of drier conditions becoming established.

There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the north or east leading to an increased chance compared to normal of cold spells. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely during early February, there remains a lower chance of milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Not good with the mention of milder weather and rain.

[ANYWEATHER]

18 hours ago, Theo said:

No it isn't.
 

Would you care to elaborate your thoughts please??

[Don]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Not good with the mention of milder weather and rain.

True, but it only says milder interludes, rather than more prolonged milder conditions.  However, I was disappointed to see that mentioned as a possibility, albeit they currently feel it is more likely to be cold overall.  Perhaps the long range models are wobbling?

Edited January 12 by Don

[Froze were the Days]

36 minutes ago, Don said:

True, but it only says milder interludes, rather than more prolonged milder conditions.  However, I was disappointed to see that mentioned as a possibility, albeit they currently feel it is more likely to be cold overall.  Perhaps the long range models are wobbling?

Between the tons of rain on a modified Pm airmass I would think...remember the metO forecast back in 2018/19 and the cold which never came?...looks like they're already backing down. I certainly wouldn't hang your hat on what a few are saying for northern blocking for next month.