Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Chasbrown]

34 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Not a great update.

That's putting it mildly, if you'll pardon the pun!

[Summer Sun]

Monday 29 Jan to Monday 12 Feb

After a likely milder, more unsettled spell during the preceding week, towards the end of January and into early February there is again an increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but this increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the north or east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely during early February, there remains a lower chance of milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[snowblind]

The further further outlook hasn't changed for days but means nothing really it can change to a milder outlook in the blink of an eye.

[Bristawl Si]

milder 

the south could have some drier spells of weather at times, especially later in the month

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 20 Jan - Monday 29 Jan

Over the weekend, a transition to less cold conditions will occur as Atlantic frontal systems start to arrive from the west, eventually bringing spells of rain and strong winds across all areas. Following this transition, rain is likely to be heavy at times across many western hills. Whilst conditions will turn milder, this transition brings the chance of some transient snow for higher ground in the north of Scotland. Once established by the end of the weekend, milder and wetter than normal conditions seem most likely to persist through to late-January, although the south could have some drier spells of weather at times, especially later in the month, when the chance of overnight frost and fog increases once again.

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 30 Jan - Tuesday 13 Feb

After a likely milder, more unsettled spell during the preceding week, into early February there is again an increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but this increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the north or east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely during early February, there remains a lower chance of milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Don]

13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Tuesday 30 Jan - Tuesday 13 Feb

After a likely milder, more unsettled spell during the preceding week, into early February there is again an increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but this increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the north or east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely during early February, there remains a lower chance of milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

I wonder if this later update will change tomorrow?  It has been saying the same for several days now.

[Bricriu]

What's the betting the lower risk of milder interludes will be what  actually happens again.  Prior to this cold spell, they were saying  there was a lower risk of milder interludes,  then it changed from milder briefly in the south to what we are going to get next week 

Edited January 15 by Bricriu

[Don]

1 hour ago, Bricriu said:

What's the betting the lower risk of milder interludes will be what  actually happens again.  Prior to this cold spell, they were saying  there was a lower risk of milder interludes,  then it changed from milder briefly in the south to what we are going to get next week 

Yes, as soon as the mention of the word 'mild' creeps in to the forecast (even if it's low risk), that's alarm bells!

[DOdo]

On 11/01/2024 at 21:26, Theo said:

There Longer Range forecast  for the first Fortnight in February hasnt changed
 

It is based on probability 

[Theo]

1 hour ago, DOdo said:

It is based on probability 

I'm not sure who you were quoting there but it wasn't me

[Theo]

On 12/01/2024 at 15:21, ANYWEATHER said:

It seems to me that you have to have the last say!  That's fine by me ,☺

Not in the slightest; it's the nature of any conversation that somebody will arbitrarily make the last remark. But it seems more likely that it's people who say things like "end of story" who want the last word.

Anyway, enjoy your Met degree. You'll find the sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting fascinating if that's part of what you study. 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 21 Jan - Tuesday 30 Jan

By Sunday the transition to above normal temperatures is complete with Atlantic frontal systems pushing northeast across the UK bringing spells of rain and very strong winds across all areas. There is the potential for some damaging winds on Sunday into Monday, especially in the north. Rain is likely to be heavy at times across many western hills. The milder and wetter than normal conditions seem most likely to persist through to late-January, the wettest and windiest conditions likely to be focussed across the north and northwest, and in the the south and southeast some drier and more settled spells of weather are likely, especially later in the month, when the chance of overnight frost and fog increases once again.

Wednesday 31 Jan - Wednesday 14 Feb

After a likely milder, more unsettled spell during the preceding week, into early February there is again an increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but this increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely during early February, there remains a chance of some milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Turning mild for a while. Colder by mid-February

Wednesday 17 January to – Sunday 21 January

Turning milder at the weekend

Monday 22 January to – Sunday 28 January

Unsettled but mild

Monday 29 January to – Sunday 11 February

Possibly colder by mid-February

Further ahead

The next forecast update will take us further into February, and we will also see if models give more of a clue about the potential for colder weather to return during February.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Edited January 17 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Monday 22 Jan - Wednesday 31 Jan

There is potential for strong winds to be across the country at first on Monday, especially in the north at first, but it will be much milder. Rain is also likely at first although potentially becoming drier for a time in the south. The milder than normal conditions seem most likely to persist through to the end January, with the greatest chance of unsettled conditions likely to be focussed across the north and northwest. Hovever, in the the south and southeast some drier and more settled spells of weather are likely to develop, especially later in the month, when, although quite likely milder than of late, the chance of overnight frost and fog increases once again.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Rob 79812010]

Both seem confident ish of some colder weather Feb. Met O using the E word as well! Id like that if it happened!!

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 1 Feb - Thursday 15 Feb

Into early February there is an increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but this increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely during early February, there remains a chance of some milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[karyo]

It sounds like they are expecting a mid latitude high in February, so Atlantic systems will still be affecting the north from time to time and high pressure further south. Hardly something to get excited about.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Game over for winter 2023/24.

Not too bad for Scotland though!

[DOdo]

Remains Unchanged

[Don]

3 hours ago, karyo said:

It sounds like they are expecting a mid latitude high in February, so Atlantic systems will still be affecting the north from time to time and high pressure further south. Hardly something to get excited about.

But that's with their less likely option though, with the main likelihood of seeing colder weather from the east?

2 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Game over for winter 2023/24.

Not too bad for Scotland though!

Why?  However, I would feel somewhat better if they dropped the chance of milder interludes!  I do know where you're coming from though, with winter so far being somewhat frustrating!

Edited January 17 by Don

[damianslaw]

Met still going for winds from the east possibly, this can only suggest heights either over Scotland just to the north, or further north or possibly NW. East winds in Feb means cold usually, indeed usually colder than in Dec and Jan. 

Edited January 17 by damianslaw

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Met still going for winds from the east possibly, this can only suggest heights either over Scotland just to the north, or further north or possibly NW. East winds in Feb means cold usually, indeed usually colder than in Dec and Jan. 

depends on location, was wishing this was Dec or Jan, had quite frequent snow showers but wet, just wet the ground

 

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

depends on location, was wishing this was Dec or Jan, had quite frequent snow showers but wet, just wet the ground

 

I remember the showers were very shortlived and the stronger Feb sun warmed the ground so they didn't have time to stick. The synoptics look great on paper though. 

Need more organised trough features or low pressure bumping up from the south. 

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 23 Jan to Thursday 1 Feb

After a dry start conditions quickly turning wet and windy into Tuesday, with the potential for strong winds especially in the north. This will likely clear late Tuesday or into early Wednesday, for a clearer day, especially in the east. Toward the weekend and into next week the milder than normal conditions seem most likely to persist, with likely a further system pushing through the bulk of the UK later in the week before the greater chance of unsettled conditions becomes focussed across the north and northwest, increasing the likelihood in the south and southeast of some drier and more settled spells of weather. However although quite likely milder than of late, the chance of overnight frost and fog increases once again.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk