Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[karyo]

It is a downgrade all round! lol

[Don]

 karyo Just as expected and I expect the downgrades will continue moving forward!

[karyo]

 Don The Met Office may as well stop publishing those updates! They are always playing catch up with developments.

I guess climate change is overriding a lot of factors that can lead to a cold spell.

[Don]

6 minutes ago, karyo said:

The Met Office may as well stop publishing those updates! They are always playing catch up with developments.

I guess climate change is overriding a lot of factors that can lead to a cold spell.

As I've said in recent days, long range forecasting seems to be getting ever more challenging, particularly in winter, which is going to make long range forecasting more and more difficult!  I also believe that climate change is overriding factors leading to cold spells, too.  I don't know about you but I'm finding this all rather demoralising!  

[raz.org.rain]

 Don I can't bring myself to criticise the forecasters, it's clearly been a very frustrating season with constant last minute u-turns. I can imagine it's been one of the worst periods for making forecasts.

[Don]

 raz.org.rain I’m not criticising any forecasters as I believe there are additional complications now with CC that are not well understood.  And yes, lots of frustration and not a job I envy!!

[karyo]

 Don Yes Don, chasing cold spells has become tiring. A lot of effort for very small return. If it was a job, we would give it up!

 

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 13 Feb - Thursday 22 Feb

Begins the period cloudy with showers or longer spells of rain across north/north-western areas with drier conditions in the south. Becoming mainly dry by the middle of next week, especially in the east with the greatest chance for sunny spells, whereas western areas may see some rain or showers spread in from the Atlantic at times. Temperatures will probably be around normal, although colder conditions could develop in the east with overnight frost. Into the weekend and the following week, much of the UK will lie under the influence of predominantly dry conditions thanks to high pressure extending from mainland Europe, albeit with temperatures turning colder. However, milder, wetter weather from the Atlantic will always lie close by, with this encroaching from the west at times.

Friday 23 Feb to Friday 8 Mar

Whilst there is a large degree of uncertainty, conditions are most likely to be drier and more settled than usual through the remainder of February with winds from the east or north. This increases the chance of cold conditions and fog, with some wintry showers also possible. Early March may see a return to more changeable conditions becoming more likely with an increasing chance of weather systems moving in from the Atlantic.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[johncam]

 Summer Sun looks a copy and paste from yesterday 

[JimBob]

I see after many weeks the Met Office have finally ditched the predicted cold spell and sounds like average weather to see out the remainder of Feb. 

[johncam]

Latest update not as good again 

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 14 Feb - Friday 23 Feb

Likely cloudy in the south and southwest of the UK on Wednesday with outbreaks of rain. Probably drier and brighter elsewhere with overnight frost and fog possible. Cloudy, milder, wetter conditions probably making erratic progress further north and east during the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Through the remainder of this period there is greater than normal uncertainty. There is an increased chance compared to normal of colder and drier spells due increased influence of high pressure bringing winds from the north or east at times. However, further spells of milder, wetter and windier weather are also to be expected and it is currently unclear which regime will be most dominant for the UK.

Saturday 24 Feb to Saturday 9 Mar

During late February and into March there remains a large degree of uncertainty as to which weather regimes will be most prevalent for the UK. Compared to normal, there is an increased likelihood of periods of winds from the north or east which increases the likelihood of spells of colder weather. Spells and milder, wetter and windier conditions remain probable but it is unclear how frequent these will be.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Don]

 johncam Yep, as expected the backtrack continues......

[damianslaw]

Unclear is my take from these forecasts, this winter has been one of false expectations, and it feels every time cold looks likely something comes along and prevents it.

[WYorksWeather]

Once Exeter start talking about considerable uncertainty, that's the point at which we assume default mild. Usual rule for this winter has been as follows:

Outlook is very cold - temperatures will be somewhat colder than average

Outlook is cold - temperatures will be average

Outlook is average - temperatures will be mild

Outlook is above average - temperatures will be silly mild / record-breaking mild

[Summer8906]

Seems to be very much a battle between continuing very mild, very dull and very wet SWlies and dry, cold E-lies, with it being hard to tell which will gain the upper hand. GFS shows this pattern though the easterlies do seem to keep the Atlantic at bay somewhat - for now.

Knowing this winter though one might expect the SWlies to do it.

Too early to say but there must be a risk, at least (and only a risk at this stage) of this perhaps being the mildest, the dullest AND the wettest Feb on record in some places in the southwestern half of the UK. Let's hope the easterlies or at least something vaguely colder and drier do gain the upper hand!

One slight improvement over yesterday though is that it continues the uncertainty into March. Yesterday they sounded more bullish about the Atlantic coming back in early March.

Edited February 9 by Summer8906

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Unsettled into spring with variable temperatures

Saturday 10 February to – Sunday 18 February

Very variable temperatures. Wet at times

Monday 19 February to – Sunday 25 February

Colder and drier in the north than in the south

Monday 26 February to – Sunday 10 March

Unsettled. Chilly at times, mainly in the north

Further ahead

The next update on Wednesday might give us a better idea of how far south any colder air might come.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[johncam]

Another downgrade,  time to call it quits I think 

[johncam]

Met downgrading again,  think that's it now for Feb , Met haven't covered themselves in glory at all 

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 15 Feb - Saturday 24 Feb

The period will likely begin on the mild side of average for most, with quite extensive cloud cover and outbreaks of rain and drizzle. During this time the far north and northeast, may just about hang on to some slightly colder and clearer conditions with near average temperatures. It is probable that for a time, these slightly colder and clearer conditions alongside a few showers may make some southwards progress, allowing some slight snowfall for hills, and frost by night. However any such southwards incursions of colder air look likely to be short-lived, with milder conditions bringing further cloud, rain and drizzle expected to quickly re-establish from the southwest for all but the far north and northeast.

Sunday 25 Feb to Sunday 10 Mar

During late February and into March there remains a large degree of uncertainty as to which weather regimes will be most prevalent for the UK. Compared to normal, there is a slightly increased likelihood of periods of winds from the north or east which increases the likelihood of spells of colder weather. Spells and milder, wetter and windier conditions remain probable at times, especially towards the south and west but it is unclear how frequent these will be.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[lassie23]

 johncam I'm still waiting for their wintry hazards to materialize down south. So the opposite of what they forecast usually happens so we should get blizzards soon

Edited February 10 by lassie23

[johncam]

 lassie23 if only 

[Don]

 johncam well, the uncertainty has gone for the next two weeks with milder conditions to prevail away from the far north and east.  The increased chance of winds from the north and east has gone and even in the extended range, 'increased likelihood of periods of winds from the east or north, now says 'a slightly increased likelihood of periods of winds from the north or east'.  It really has been a rerun of 2018/19 with their updates this winter and not sure why they bother to even mention the chances of winds from the north or east now, as it's almost certainly not going to happen?!  

I don't blame the Metoffice really as they can only go with the direction their data gives them.

Edited February 10 by Don

[WYorksWeather]

 Don I think important to recognise that the background chance of winds from the north or east is quite low - some sort of westerly dominates in winter. Therefore, 'a slightly increased chance' might mean e.g. 30% instead of 20%. And even 'a significantly increased chance' might mean 50% instead of 20%.

 

[johncam]

 Don not blaming the Met at all , but would say their 30 day forecasts are pointless. Cant remember them ever being anywhere near accurate. They are also so vague half the time again making them pointless They haven't improved since they started.   A 5-7 day forecast would be more usable and leave it there. CC is mucking even the pro's forecasts up.