Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Don]

52 minutes ago, johncam said:

They haven't improved since they started.   A 5-7 day forecast would be more usable and leave it there. CC is mucking even the pro's forecasts up.

I agree with this and a better understanding is needed to know how CC is affecting the teleconnections and the models also seem to be struggling.  However, with CC advancing all the time, I'm thinking that makes it all the more challenging for future long range forecasting, with the goal posts constantly moving!

[Chasbrown]

 Don Strongly disagree, I do blame the Met Office. They are very well funded and to this day cannot accurately forecast into the extended. They bang the cc drum loudly at every opportunity yet fail to incorporate it into their long range forecasts. Let's be honest, we could all come up with a forecast for the next 3 weeks that would be as fence sitting and as totally false and useless as them without getting paid mega bucks.

[SunnyG]

 Chasbrown I predicted it would stay mild in London so I did better than them for free.

[SunnyG]

 johncam Last week they had a line in the long term going into March that went something like "there might be snow somewhere'. Wow just wow.

 

Edit: here it is

Edited February 10 by SunnyG

[Chasbrown]

 SunnyG My point exactly. Wish I had their nerve in my tooth!

[Norrance]

Looks like todays Met update has been missed so here it is.

UK long range weather forecast

Friday 16 Feb - Sunday 25 Feb

This period will likely begin with cloud and rain moving away from east or southeast Britain to give a brief more settled spell with patchy overnight fog or frost. How long this drier weather lasts is uncertain, as mild, cloudy conditions with outbreaks of rain or drizzle are expected to return from the west or southwest either later in the first weekend or early the following week. Further into the period, spells of wet and windy weather remain likely, these probably more focussed than usual across south and southwest UK, while there is a higher chance of colder, brighter interludes across the north. Towards the second weekend, there is a chance that less changeable conditions may become more widely established.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Sun 11 Feb 2024

Monday 26 Feb - Monday 11 Mar

During late February and early March, there is a higher than normal likelihood of northerly or easterly winds dominating, which would increase the chance of colder and drier than average conditions. Spells of milder and wetter weather are still likely to occur at times, especially in the south and southwest, with the potential for snow on the boundary between milder and colder air.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Sun 11 Feb 2024

[Allseasons-Si]

 Norrance

This is an upgrade to previous...

2 minutes ago, Norrance said:

there is a higher than normal likelihood of northerly or easterly winds dominating

[Chasbrown]

 Allseasons-Si Er no. They've said that for weeks now and been somewhat less than accurate. 

[swfc]

 Chasbrown This forecast update is absolute rubbish. Ive been on here 20 years.

[Allseasons-Si]

 Chasbrown

Their wording from previous was uncertainty and slightly to be replaced with higher than normal,that's an upgrade but whether it play's that way we will see

i do know where you are coming from though so hang fire for now to see if this latest update repeats over the coming days

[swfc]

 Allseasons-Si It rarely comes anywhere near the mark only in exceptional occasions. The forecast is virtually re issued every day with small tweets. If it had foundation why is it issued every day instead of every month if it has credance?

[Methuselah]

 swfc But then, maybe they don't throw their toys out of the pram at each and every, less than perfect, GFS model run? 

[swfc]

 Methuselah probably not but the fact is how can a six week have merit if its updated every day 

[Chasbrown]

 swfc it has no merit on the basis it has been wrong on so many occasions.  They really should give it up.

[mountain shadow]

Met Office philosophy must be to keep on forecasting cold with Northerly or Easterlies until it actually occurs.

Just goes to show, that even though they're Professionals, they have no clue either.

 

[Methuselah]

 Chasbrown But they are better than they were in the 1970s. . . Onwards and upwards? 

[damianslaw]

Met office still sticking with their prognosis that northerlies and easterlies are possible.. and indeed the longer range outlook feels a revert back to something more likely colder. As we enter spring statistically northerlies and easterlies are more likely than in June to Feb. 

[johncam]

Another slight downgrade  again , think thats winter done now

[Don]

 johncam Nah, there's always April!! 

[Chesil View]

I think the extended outlook is just the meto covering their backsides regarding possible ssw fallout. 

Let's face it pretty much every one on every weather forum knows an ssw is in the offing. If we were perchance to get a major dumping as a result and they hadn't even mentioned colder northerlies or easterlies and the possibility of snow fall on the boundary with milder intrusions they'd get roasted alive in the media.

 

[RJBingham]

I see they've slipped "slightly" in front of "higher than normal likelihood of northerly or easterly winds occurring" hoping nobody will notice I suppose 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 17 Feb - Monday 26 Feb

The weekend is likely to remain rather unsettled with further rain or showers for many, and it will often be mild, but by the start of next week, high pressure might start to take hold and bring more-settled conditions. This could bring a greater incidence of night-time frosts and fog. How long this drier weather lasts is uncertain, as mild, cloudy conditions with outbreaks of rain or drizzle are expected to return from the west or southwest either later in the week or during the following weekend. Northern parts of the UK may see the best of any remaining dry and frosty conditions, with the south most likely to see the worst of the rainfall.

Tuesday 27 Feb - Tuesday 12 Mar

During late February and early March, there is a slightly higher than normal likelihood of northerly or easterly winds occurring, which would increase the chance of colder and drier than average conditions. Spells of milder and wetter weather are still likely to occur at times, especially in the south and southwest, with the potential for snow on the boundary between milder and colder air.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Don]

5 hours ago, RJBingham said:

hoping nobody will notice I suppose 

Yeah right, as if!! 

[Rain All Night]

Today's Met Office update, in the middle of February, includes the words "Staying mild and feeling warm in the sunshine" - it's like they're trying their hardest to upset Netweather members 

Edited February 13 by Rain All Night

[damianslaw]

Reading today's updates, feels that its been written by two different organisations, the two don't flow. Also reference to 'warm' in February.. really!, since when can the Feb sunshine be called warm. Such phrases need to be substantiated. The recent updates have been all over the place. 

Edited February 13 by damianslaw