Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[lassie23]

 damianslaw as have their forecasts

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 18 Feb - Tuesday 27 Feb

Higher pressure on Sunday with bright or sunny spells across much of the UK, though this could bring a greater incidence of night-time frosts and fog. Risk of a few heavier showers developing by day across the west and north, but for most staying dry. Staying mild and feeling warm in the sunshine. How long this drier weather lasts is uncertain, as mild, cloudy conditions with outbreaks of rain or drizzle are expected to return from the west or southwest either later in the week or during the following weekend. Northern parts of the UK may see the best of any remaining dry and frosty conditions, with the south most likely to see the majority of the rainfall.

Wednesday 28 Feb - Wednesday 13 Mar

During late February and early March, there is a slightly higher than normal likelihood of northerly or easterly winds occurring, which would increase the chance of colder and drier than average conditions. Spells of milder and wetter weather are still likely to occur at times, especially in the south and southwest, with the potential for snow on the boundary between milder and colder air.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[lassie23]

 Summer Sun slight chance of weather later this month

[baddie]

 Summer Sun Sundays forecast is weird. Met Office symbol forecast is displaying showers and rain, but the radar is sunny spells and showers few and far between

 

[Summer Sun]

Monday 19 Feb - Wednesday 28 Feb

Higher pressure on Monday with bright or sunny spells across much of the UK, though this could bring a greater incidence of night-time frosts and fog. Risk of a heavier showers developing by day across the west and north, but for most staying dry. Staying mild and feeling warm in the sunshine. How long this drier weather lasts is uncertain, as mild, cloudy conditions with outbreaks of rain or drizzle are expected to return from the west or southwest either later in the week or during the following weekend. Northern parts of the UK may see the best of any remaining dry and frosty conditions, with the south most likely to see the majority of the rainfall.

Thursday 29 Feb - Thursday 14 Mar

During late February and early March, there is a slightly higher than normal likelihood of northerly or easterly winds occurring, which would increase the chance of colder and drier than average conditions. Spells of milder and wetter weather are still likely to occur at times, especially in the south and southwest, with the potential for snow on the boundary between milder and colder air.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Unsettled and mild then chillier later.

Wednesday 14 February to – Sunday 18 February

Changeable and mostly mild.

Monday 19 February to – Sunday 25 February

Wet periods. Turning chillier later in the week.

Monday 26 February to – Sunday 10 March

Chilly at times, especially in the north.

Further ahead

Friday's update will look at whether there is any higher confidence in late February and early March patterns, and will allow us a look towards mid-March.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Methuselah]

Ten Day Trend.

[lassie23]

 Methuselah nice 10 day guess work update by the met lol

[feb1991blizzard]

 Methuselah

Cant understand why they've kept wording of 16-30, there is absolutely nothing to suggest Easterlies for that timeframe, Northerly toppler at a push but more likely NW flow, SSW or not (possibly unfavourable displacement now but remains to be seen), you would see more evidence by now of an E'ly for late Feb / Early march, definitely not out the question by mid March.

[Don]

 feb1991blizzard the wording has changed today and looking at mid March now for those elusive easterlies!
Correction, northerly winds not easterly!

Edited February 15 by Don

[Norrance]

 Don yes big change.

UK long range weather forecast

Tuesday 20 Feb - Thursday 29 Feb

Tuesday likely seeing increasingly cloudy conditions with rain across north-western areas, this sinking to lie across southern England and Wales through Wednesday, with some areas of fog likely associated with this and a drier and brighter day for Scotland. Temperatures staying mostly mild. Conditions remain unsettled with a further band of rain then turning showery with clearer conditions in the east by the weekend, returning the UK to more average temperatures for the time of year. From Saturday conditions expected to remain unsettled with occasional bands of rain or showers, heaviest rainfall affecting the northwest though most areas likely to see some rainfall. Occasional strong winds especially in north-western areas, with more settled conditions across the south and east where driest and brightest conditions most likely.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Thu 15 Feb 2024

Friday 1 Mar - Friday 15 Mar

First half of March liable to see a slightly higher than normal likelihood of winds from the west then edging northerly later in the period. This likely leading to initially unsettled conditions with transitory settled periods and a milder Atlantic feel before increasing likelihood of colder and drier than average conditions toward mid-month.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Thu 15 Feb 2024

Edited February 15 by Norrance

[johncam]

My the Met have been terrible this winter

[Don]

 johncam We will be cold by mid March!

[feb1991blizzard]

 Don

Thought so - i was hoping against hope though that it would be the reverse of what usually happens when the models lead us up the path but the Met stay resolutely mild then the models implode in about 3 suites, doesn't seem to happen the other way though.

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 21 Feb - Friday 1 Mar

Most likely wet and mild in the south to start Wednesday with a brighter but cooler start in northern areas before rain moves in from the west for all. Conditions turn unsettled with northwest winds carrying showery conditions over the British Isles from Thursday with clearer conditions in the east through the remainder of the week, returning the UK to more average temperatures for the time of year, though sometimes cooler in northwest areas. From Saturday conditions expected to remain unsettled with occasional bands of rain or showers, heaviest rainfall affecting the northwest, although most areas likely to see some rainfall. Occasional strong winds especially in north-western areas, with more settled conditions across the south and east where driest and brightest conditions more likely.

Saturday 2 Mar - Saturday 16 Mar

First half of March liable to see a slightly higher than normal likelihood of winds from the west then edging northerly later in the period. This likely leading to initially unsettled conditions with transitory settled periods and typically average temperatures in the Atlantic flow, cooler at times in northern regions, before increasing likelihood of colder and drier than average conditions from mid-month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[KTtom]

Just twigged with the subtle change of slightly higher chances of an easterly, then they changed the word easterly to westerly yesterday as if to sweep it in under the radar without anyone noticing... embarrassing! 

[raz.org.rain]

 KTtom a change to westerly would suggest a much lower chance of anything notably cold I'm not convinced there'll be anything cold in March, I can only assume it'll change to mild as we go forward.

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Unsettled into spring with variable temperatures

Saturday 17 February to – Sunday 25 February

Unsettled and becoming chillier

Monday 26 February to – Sunday 3 March

Unsettled weather with seasonable temperatures

Monday 4 March to – Sunday 17 March

Milder for a time. Possibly colder mid-month

Further ahead

In the next update on Wednesday we will see if there any higher confidence on developments in early March. After the expected colder spell will there be any milder weather for a while?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Optimus Prime]

 KTtom

An increased risk of something occuring is different from stating something WILL happen...

It's been a bust winter for most forecasters this year.

[lassie23]

as we head into Smarch the Met Office has all bases covered as usual

[baddie]

I can see a trend to colder conditions into late-February/early-March (Maybe the SSW takes effect???). Im thinking cold and dry first 10 days of March, changeable middle then warm and dry after the equinox?????

Edited February 17 by baddie

[raz.org.rain]

 baddie that's what I'm going for. Cooler start to March and a much warmer end.

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 22 Feb - Saturday 2 Mar

Conditions remain unsettled on Thursday with some early showers from the west displaced by longer spells of rain from the southwest spreading across the UK through the day, some hill snow possible in far north UK. Toward Friday skies clear with showers then pushing in from the west though the day for a day of sunny spells and occasional showers, blustery across coasts. Temperatures around average for the time of year though edging cooler in north-western areas. From Saturday conditions expected to remain unsettled with occasional bands of rain or showers, heaviest rainfall affecting the west, although most areas likely to see some rainfall. Occasional strong winds especially in north-western areas, with more settled conditions across the south and east where driest and brightest conditions more likely.

Sunday 3 Mar - Sunday 17 Mar

First part of March liable to see a slightly higher than normal likelihood of winds from the west then edging northerly later in the period. This likely leading to initially unsettled conditions with transitory settled periods and typically average temperatures in the Atlantic flow, cooler at times in northern regions, before increasing likelihood of colder and drier than average conditions from mid-month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[baddie]

 raz.org.rain I value dry conditions at this time of the year, as long as there is no North Sea Easterlies. I value a bone dry March more than a bone dry Summer month (Dry Summer = Lack of thunderstorms). We are also due a very dry March, as we havent had one with under 50% of average rainfall since 2012

Edited February 17 by baddie

[Summer Sun]

Friday 23 Feb - Sunday 3 Mar

Unsettled on Friday and over the weekend with showery conditions across the country and windy at times. Showers likely to be heaviest and most frequent into western areas. Any snow will be resticted to hills, mainly in the north. Temperatures will be around average for the time of year, possibly rather cold in the north with overnight frost most likely here. A generally unsettled pattern is most likely through to early March bringing spells of rain across all areas at times, wettest in the west and northwest, and occasionally windy too. Temperatures generally around average though some short-lived colder interludes are possible. These more likely in the north which may allow snow to fall to lower levels at times.

Monday 4 Mar - Monday 18 Mar

A continuation of unsettled conditions is most probable for early March with winds tending to be from the west or northwest. Temperatures generally around average though with some short lived colder interludes possible. Confidence typically lowers towards mid-March but there are signs that conditions may turn less unsettled and drier as higher pressure has more influence. This also increases the likelihood of some colder spells but overall temperatures are mostly likely to be around average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 24 Feb - Monday 4 Mar

It will remain rather cool and changeable over the weekend with further showers or longer spells of rain in most areas, but perhaps more especially in the south of the UK. It's also likely to be windy at times, and there is a small chance that it could be quite stormy, so probably worth keeping an eye on the forecast. A generally unsettled pattern is most likely to continue through to early March bringing spells of rain across all areas at times, wettest in the west and northwest, where it'll be windy too at times. Temperatures generally around average though some short-lived colder interludes are possible. These more likely in the north which may allow snow to fall to lower levels at times.

Tuesday 5 Mar - Tuesday 19 Mar

A continuation of unsettled conditions is most likely in this period with low pressure systems likely to continue to cross over or close-to the UK, with mostly short-lived spells of drier and brighter weather between times. Temperatures are likely to be near normal overall, with occasional night frosts, but values will fluctuate as weather systems come and go.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk