Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[stainesbloke]

January has flown by for me. Normally it’s such a slog to get through but not this year, no idea why Have had plenty of chilly but sunny weather. Unfortunately, the dreary damp gloom is back. Hopefully not for too long

[SunSean]

The feeling of the strengthening sun today feels great! Gets me more excited for Spring, and hopefully lots of sunshine this year!

[CryoraptorA303]

 WYorksWeather Indeed, it's gone almost the same way as the last few Januaries. That's four in a row now that broadly fit the description of having dry, average to cold spells bracketed with notable mild. If the first ~5 days of January are subtracted which were a hangover from December then my location would have received just 19.6mm of rainfall, which is significantly drier than the 69.3mm average at East Malling. An almost identical situation to 2021 and 2023, although not 2022 as that was dry throughout.

For February I'm expecting mostly average temperatures, with daytime temps steadily reaching more spring-like standards as we move through the month in the rising February sun. Some frosty mornings here and there but no significant cold spell and certainly no snow outside the Scottish highlands and the Pennines. Overall sunny, drier than average and around average mean with above average daily maxima and slightly below average minima, although this could easily be pushed to average or above if we get a significant mild intrusion mid-month and some very high temps for the season. I wouldn't completely rule out a repeat of January 28th if continental anticyclones keep deflecting Atlantic cyclones north and Foehning western areas. However the Sun is beginning to rise from the solstice now and that continental high is going to become more important in daytime temps - We could see the south beginning to match or exceed those western areas if January 28th repeats later in the month.

Moving onto March I see a similar month to February with solidly spring-like temps for most of the month, some colder spells here or there but daytime temps will be refusing to go below 10°C for most and freezing nights will only happen once or twice if at all outside of the usual suspects. I don't think we'll be seeing a cold March at all, let alone any snowfall outside of the usual suspects. We could see the first 20°C of the year, I wouldn't guarentee it but I'd put my money on January's annual max being challenged, perhaps for more than one day. Likely average or slightly warmer than average with above average daily max and around average or slightly above daily min, average or above average sunshine, I doubt below average, and drier or near average (bear in mind a lot of the south and east is dry in March anyway and average rainfall is under 40mm for a lot of East Anglia).

 stainesbloke I've found January to have been significantly sunnier than December, which to be fair isn't that hard. We've seen the sun for about half the month here, a few days this week were the only overcast days in the whole month aside from the first week from memory. Today it's a completely clear sky. I'm not expecting February to be particularly dull.

[SunSean]

January 2024 sunshine table

Far better than the woeful December 2023! A few places almost hit 100 hours. 4 stations, Lowestoft, Whitby, Bradford & Eastbourne just need their totals confirmed by the Met but other than that, it is complete.

How did your area do?

[Metwatch]

 SunSean

Coventry managed 83 hours, 8th sunniest since recording began.

[MP-R]

 SunSean Not surprised to see the Isle of Wight at the top of the list.

Third sunny January in a row here this year, all after quite dull Decembers. Not quite as sunny as 23 and 22, but sunny nonetheless.

[Bristawl Si]

 SunSean yep, really hoping for early Spring warmth in early March when i return from 2 weeks in the Caribbean.

We've had so much rain locally in last 6 months, a dry and sunny period from March to October would be most welcome and, of course, very warm or hot temps a la The Med.

[raz.org.rain]

 Bristawl Si I wouldn't mind a March 2020 repeat with some gloriously warm weather. Old wives' tales will have you believe that a warm March is a sign of an incoming poor summer though, and with the current ENSO state due to transition... high risk of a pile of garbage summer.

Edited February 1 by raz.org.rain

[Bristawl Si]

 raz.org.rain

"Old wives' tales" - plenty of those on here.

As i'm still relatively sane, i take the "if it's a good month, the following Summer will be sh#te" type views with a warehouse load of salt. And i defo dont "worry" about computer generated charts for any future period.

[raz.org.rain]

 Bristawl Si fair to say that conker theory got well and truly scuppered... supposedly they were indicating a thoroughly cold winter. Then again, so were the long range forecasts... we all know how that's gone so far.

[raz.org.rain]

2 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

For February I'm expecting mostly average temperatures, with daytime temps steadily reaching more spring-like standards as we move through the month in the rising February sun. Some frosty mornings here and there but no significant cold spell and certainly no snow outside the Scottish highlands and the Pennines. Overall sunny, drier than average and around average mean with above average daily maxima and slightly below average minima, although this could easily be pushed to average or above if we get a significant mild intrusion mid-month and some very high temps for the season. I wouldn't completely rule out a repeat of January 28th if continental anticyclones keep deflecting Atlantic cyclones north and Foehning western areas. However the Sun is beginning to rise from the solstice now and that continental high is going to become more important in daytime temps - We could see the south beginning to match or exceed those western areas if January 28th repeats later in the month.

Moving onto March I see a similar month to February with solidly spring-like temps for most of the month, some colder spells here or there but daytime temps will be refusing to go below 10°C for most and freezing nights will only happen once or twice if at all outside of the usual suspects. I don't think we'll be seeing a cold March at all, let alone any snowfall outside of the usual suspects. We could see the first 20°C of the year, I wouldn't guarentee it but I'd put my money on January's annual max being challenged, perhaps for more than one day. Likely average or slightly warmer than average with above average daily max and around average or slightly above daily min, average or above average sunshine, I doubt below average, and drier or near average (bear in mind a lot of the south and east is dry in March anyway and average rainfall is under 40mm for a lot of East Anglia).

Looks like the chase for cold is focused on mid to late February now, although it's all far from guaranteed...

 

You have to admit, the persistence of mild this season is impressive.

 stainesbloke yeah January really has passed by incredibly quickly, which I'm thankful of. This time of year, post-Christmas/NYE just feels dead with nothing to really look forward to except for spring, which would ordinarily take months to arrive. I feel like this mild we've had has helped it pass by quicker.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I'm looking for Spring!

[CryoraptorA303]

 raz.org.rain To be fair, it did seem like a cold winter was coming at one point. I never got my hopes up because it was 2023/2024, cold doesn't happen easily anymore, but it was on paper looking much better than what the previous few years had suggested. Sadly it hasn't all gone to plan.

Of course with one month of winter plus two weeks of March left anything could happen but the focus already moving to the second half doesn't fill me with much optimism. From what I've seen that's normally the final nail in the coffin for anything serious materialising. We could get BFTE'd but I'm not seeing it this year. Time to start hoping for 2024/25 imo.

With the obscene lack of anything other than either mild or average to coldish dryness in the past few years, winter is becoming an exceptionally boring time of year for weather. Storms and heavy rain are fun in October/November, not so much in December and onwards when you want to start seeing some more colder temps and less of the obnoxiously mild and sticky low cloud that was virtually omnipresent last December. A settled dry period with average daytime temps and coldish nights without anything escalating for the fourth January in a row is just an insult. I don't think I even need to mention the new record.

[raz.org.rain]

 CryoraptorA303 seems there's some ramping up for March going on. Although I'm not sure I buy it.

 

[Weatherman_93]

 raz.org.rain first day of February and the March chase is on. Will they still be chasing come April..probably.

Those folk on twitter must be members of the mad thread. Just as deluded.

Edited February 1 by Weatherman_93

[CryoraptorA303]

 raz.org.rain Two Marches in a row with notable cold spells? I seriously doubt it. The only time I can think of when we had two back-to-back extended winter Marches was 1962 and 1963, and I don't think I need to explain how exceptional that was. Then again we've had four Januaries in a row that were all very similar to differing extents, so nothing is impossible, but even then.

 Weatherman_93 Frankly, if you look more than two weeks out, there will be a significant deviation from the mean and you can pick any scenario you like. Right now there are just as many going for mild as there are for anything of note. The March chase being on already is particularly dire, even last year it was still a mid-February chase.

By April I think most will have packed up and gone home as absolutely no one wants a "cold spell" mid-March onward, i.e. average January temps and heavy rain. Something like April 2021 is a bit more welcome although that is exceptional and almost never the result of a high winter type setup occuring in low spring.

If the suggested 2010 analogue has any weight to it which is questionable, then we will see a mild February, warm March, warm April, a humid, mild breakdown at the beginning of the month before a record breaking May heatwave and a serious June heatwave that could threaten 1976's record. The first half of July will be very warm before things take a milder turn, with the second half of July and August being humid. September will then have a very warm spell in the first week, possibly reaching 30°C although I doubt we'll see another September annual maximum as at least one out of May, June or July will have gone higher, October and November will both be mild with the odd drycold intrusions and December will be dry and cold but not exceptionally so, certainly nothing like December 2010.

[TwisterGirl81]

I‘M very keen for some warmth and wall to walk sunshine for an extended period, the thought of having to wait until May for the warmth like past year fills me with dread. It would be unlucky to have a spring like last year so here’s hoping for some warmth to get here by April and lots of sunny weather through spring and summer 

[stainesbloke]

 CryoraptorA303 January has been much sunnier than woeful December, thankfully. Looks like it might have been sunnier than average, too, with a whopping 27% of total available daylight actually sunny. How spoilt are we  

[stainesbloke]

 raz.org.rain January is usually by far the longest month of the year for me.. So the fact that it’s already over is quite a surprise. There was a bit of wintry weather earlier in the month and some very pleasant sunshine and frosts. Interested to see what February holds 

[reef]

Any chance the Spring discussion can move to the Spring thread and this one be left for winter?

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 reef I think we've all declared winter dead LOLOL

[East Lancs Rain]

21 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

January has flown by for me. Normally it’s such a slog to get through but not this year, no idea why Have had plenty of chilly but sunny weather. Unfortunately, the dreary damp gloom is back. Hopefully not for too long

That is probably why. Meanwhile here in the UK, winter has really dragged on this year as its been dull and wet since Late September. I know some parts of the UK have had a sunny January, but not here, no that wouldn’t happen here... Can’t be having too much sun in winter.. It’s not allowed… Winter has got to be gloomy and wet here.

 

Interestingly at 4am the highest temperatures are actually in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Currently 12°C in Aberdeen but just 2°C at Stanstead Airport. Strange that.

 

Some overcast and damp days coming up here, but… At least it will be MILD!  Yayyyyyyyy!

[East Lancs Rain]

5 hours ago, reef said:

Any chance the Spring discussion can move to the Spring thread and this one be left for winter?

There is no winter left to speak of… It will either be feeling springlike or autumnal in most areas for the next few days at least.

[SussexSnowman]

I had a bit of nostalgia yesterday as on my FB feed came up a memory of a snow back in 2019 on the 1st Feb. Feels like a long time ago!

Dry week so far. Few foggy and misty days which have been nice. Still holding hope something white and wintry might show up.

[ANYWEATHER]

Almost feels like Spring today, birdsong  and sunshine