Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Dark Horse]

 Joe Bloggs one event that still pi**es me off is the 22nd-23rd March 2013 event. Pretty certain that was a SE wind. Seemed like everywhere else did really well but not where I was. Woke up to a pathetic dusting on the cars, grass and roofs. Not even measaurable. We did pretty well in the preceding January though here in Tameside, that was more of a direct easterly though with less of a shield. I actually had to shovel snow. Not had to do that since 2018. Couple of other lighter coverings in the Feb too of 2013. But yeah that late March event I'm still not recovered from.

This below was Bolton from that event which I've noticed is normally far enough away from the shield. Seems like the further north you are in the city the less effected you are by it.

 

 

[Kasim Awan]

A phase of settling wet snow within the shield on the leading edge of the front is entirely possible, but the strong easterlies after this would lead to a strong shield effect.

[Joe Snow]

South Cheshire - Crewe, Congleton, Sandbach, Nantwich, Northwich down to Tarporley/ Malpas kind of way is just enough South to be out of the shield that tends affect N/ NE of Macclesfield but we are not always far west enough not to be completely unaffected depending on the set up - Mar 2013 was a bust for example where as NE Wales got buried. Thurs will more than likely be a wintry mix of wet snow- sleet & rain here anyway we shall see  

[Day 10]

GFS looks ok too with a decent period of snow for many, just need it to stall now between Cheshire & Carlisle

[WillinGlossop]

Great City super City ️️️️

snow possibly

foden Hattrick ️️️️ City tearing cockneys apart again

Edited February 5 by WillinGlossop

[Day 10]

GFS

[frosty ground]

The changes picked up by the 12z runs have now translated into the UKM run.

Friday now milder with rain after early snow 

[winterof79]

 Kasim Awan my long await for snow this winter looks like paying off in Kirkburton with the orographic uplift

Edited February 5 by winterof79

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe 48 hrs tops at present, wasted energy fixating on output beyond this timescale. 

[Thunder Snow]

 Day 10 yes please

[cheshire snow]

GFS a slight upgrade keeps the snow on low ground into the afternoon.

[Weather-history]

Friday's FAX chart

 

Large scatter has appeared on the GFS 0z run ensembles in terms of my location from about the 9th Feb

For instance, on the the GF06z run yesterday, there were only 2 -ve 850hpas for the 9th. The GFS 0z run ensembles now has 16

Preston, there were only 4, now its 18

Carlisle, there were 16, now its 28

 

We still haven't a clue what is going to happen 

[frosty ground]

GFS is now the coldest run for my location beyond Thursday 

GFS carrying a much larger ice risk than my UKM app for example 

Edited February 6 by frosty ground

[severe snowstorm]

Gusty winds here this morning. Dry at the moment, but a wet day in prospect. 

 

 

[iand61]

As already said, a wet day coming up before a dry day tomorrow and then a wet day again on Thursday.

Whether Thursday is wet or white remains to be seen although hopefully all those who want snow will see a bit of it at some stage during the day.

good to see the Mad thread back to what it’s intended for at the moment, talking about what is on the horizon rather than being turned into an extended southern regional thread although that probably reflects the expected location of Thursdays snow rather than the usual suspects realising that it isn’t the place to throw toys from prams.

nothing more sure than they will be back in the future though and we’ll have to trawl though pages of nonsense to find an expert post of what is actually going on.

[cheshire snow]

ECM gives around 9hrs of moderate to heavy snow on Thursday before turning to sleet/rain in the south of the region/elsewhere lasting longer,could be a significant event and would suspect the warning will change to amber in a good few areas.

[cheshire snow]

UKV Thursday lunchtime.

[Joe Snow]

 cheshire snow Yeah if confidence continues in the track of Thursdays snow I can see an Amber being issued tomorrow, the system is impacting during Thurs daytime so likely to be disruptive where snow falls & accumulates. Could be a significant all be it transient heavy snow-sleet/ rain event for us on lower ground too. 
 

MO & BBC Text forecasts looking ok for Thursday  
 

[The Northern Ramper]

Even in December 2010 we were having the same issues.

[Geordiesnow]

 The Northern Ramper

Yeah which shows it's always been the same regardless and nothing will change but I got to say I am sick and tired of the same old every winter, people's frustrations of every run in winter, IMBY posts, the over zealous moderating and members from the north moaning about the southern bias from some members, I mean there is a valid reason why you want frontal events to be further south as that more than likely means the cold air winning out, it's not necessarily meaning they are bias because they live in the south.

All that said I hated the dismissive nature of the northerly a few weeks ago just because in their eyes it's only Scotland that is in the snow risk. It was quite a potent northerly, true proper cold airmass. Of course if the Northerly was more of a NNE'ly it would be seen as much differently albeit for us reducing our snow risk significantly.

 

[Spah1]

It will be nice to see some falling snow but a big band of rain follows

[The Northern Ramper]

 Geordiesnow

It’s posts like below, stating an upgrade because the snow line has moved south, midlands primed etc. That is not imo an upgrade based on the Tropospheric pattern but purely on snow IMBY.

 

Funny that Matt Stoke highlighted it was yesterday’s run

[Chris.R]

GFS this morning is very close to being epic.
North of Preston all levels remain at or below freezing throughout. South of Preston though there is a layer above freezing between Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, the top of the boundary layer remains below freezing throughout so that would suggest increased risk of ice pellets And suppressed surface temperatures which could allow any snow cover to remain. 
It is the GFS though and it's just one run. Going to check WRF now.

[Day 10]

All good this morning.

The Met:

The word rain removed for Thurs or most of it

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Turning unsettled again to end the week with blustery winds. Uncertain arrival of some snow on Thursday, potentially disruptive in places, then outbreaks of rain lingering into Friday and Saturday.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 6 Feb 2024

GFS

ECM

WRF

Plus there are already tentative signs the second push on Friday won't get as far north, one to watch.

 

Edited February 6 by Day 10

[Chris.R]

 Day 10 i'm beginning to think it could all stay as snow or ice pellets throughout in most of the region now. even where the air is above freezing it's only just so a bit of very heavy precip would easy mix that out.