Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[The Northern Ramper]

 Winter Hill
 

Living in my location it’s not what’s happening at home that causes the bedlam. The motorway gets closed at the next Junction which is the highest motorway junction in the country. Everything gets diverted off the motorway and onto my road which is the quickest route over the tops. 
The only problem with that is it goes from 150-350m in only a few miles, trucks get stuck and everything is quickly gridlocked.

During BFTE it was gridlocked for two days, even last year I got a snow day out of about two inches at my location.

[Winter Hill]

 The Northern Ramper

yes, I remember you getting the day off. 

I had to go in work but the transport manager put a stop to any deliveries 

[iand61]

 Day 10 even our region is going to struggle to get a let down looking at those pictures

seriously though, if the depths shown even come close to being accurate then crossing the South Pennines and Peaks is going to be impossible on Thursday and probably into the weekend.

Even the falls in the classic past winters were not usually measured in depths between one and two feet and a heavy fall these days is a few cm’s, not approaching 50.

 

[russwirral]

Just back from Reykjavik we had a very snowy spell which i hope im bringing back with me... we had a snow storm dumping about 6inches.

 

Back to Thursday, Wirrals best snow events in my lifetime have come from this synoptic setup. Its high risk high reward. 2 orn3 times through my childhood did we get this... one i remember was feb 1996. Ive been waiting about 25 yrs for another one, such is the rarity. We might get more than 5cm snow.

 

 

[Day 10]

 russwirral

Yes, although rare, these setups are probably number 1 for here with the Cheshire Gap setup 2nd. Our deepest snowfall has always come from the Atlantic pushing in with SE winds.

[Day 10]

ECM

[Joe Snow]

 Day 10 Can't remember if we had a SE wind for the event but would 18th Jan 2013 be a comparable event to Thursday's potential snowfall we had around 5-7cm here from memory? That too was a front moving in from the SW and pushing north, North Midlands (Stoke, Staffs), Liverpool, Wirral, S & W Cheshire did particularly well but a snow shield affected parts of Gtr MCR and the Stockport area giving a light covering yet Buxton, Macc, Peak District weren't affected by any shield so it was pretty localised to the Manchester City Centre area and its SE suburbs. 

Edited February 6 by Joe Snow

[iand61]

 Day 10 strange how I couldn’t see charts like this in the Mad thread.

plenty showing everything across the Midlands and CSE but none showing snow across the north.

do they know something we don’t.

 

[Scuba steve]

 iand61 that’s because it’s full of 

[Rob 79812010]

 James M You're not wrong. Seen it so many times. Snow showers and organised shower bands off Irish sea are best here. Normally our best snow events. Jan 96 and March 18  notable exceptions I think

[Weather-history]

 Joe Snow

I think that was due to the front not pushing further NEwards. 

We had an amber warning for the NW put out on that Wednesday, it look like it could be another early February 1996 event but then the models changed,  developed a low and the front came in on an angle and was unable to push further NEwards. 

[Joe Snow]

 Weather-history I wonder where/ if anywhere will go Amber tomorrow don't envy the MO trying to pinpoint where will be most impacted. 

[frosty ground]

 iand61

the charts that they say is a midlands event shows a great swath of the NW covered in snow from the southern lakes to Chester, but yeah Milan’s even for the two hours of sleet they are going to get 

[Spah1]

 

 

[Kasim Awan]

Good evening folks.

Confidence is now high to very high regarding an area of disruptive snowfall moving into the Peak District through Thursday day. 
Regarding timing current indication is for around a 7-8am start with moderate quickly accumulating snowfall down to all elevations within the Peak District. Snowfall could start as early as 6am.
Through mid morning and into the afternoon snowfall will continue to accumulate at all levels. By mid afternoon accumulations between 12 and 20cm (5-8inches) are most likely above 280metres (900ft) within the Peak District, with accumulations between 3 and 10cm at lower altitudes.
This likely to lead to further travel issues through Thursday evening. Wind gusts will also increase through Thursday afternoon, gusts will be particularly strong above 450m (1500ft) across the western Peak District, perhaps gusting to 55mph through the afternoon, which could lead to drifting of snow.
Through the afternoon and evening a switch to sleet/rain is possible at elevations below around 200m/600ft. However, the likelihood is that through Thursday evening any precipitation above 250m will likely remain as snow or hail which could lead to additional accumulations into Friday. Therefore, accumulations towards 25cm (10 inches) are possible above 350m by Friday morning.
Through Friday morning, it is likely that the snow line will begin to rise in altitude leading to an increasing thaw at lower and mid elevations below 300m, however on some routes above 400m drifts may stick around.

There is still a slight chance that the snow system could move further South. However, this would only produce lighter accumulations of 5-10cm and not completely move the snow away.

Greater Manchester / Cheshire. 

Those in lower parts of Cheshire and Greater Manchester between 30m and 100m can expect periodic bouts of slight accumulation from sleet / wet snow mixed with ice pellets early on Thursday. A slight covering between 100m and 175m possible early Thursday with more substantial accumulation likely to be limited to 200m+, particularly across North East Greater Manchester where accumulations of 2-4cm are likely above 150m North and East of Oldham, later leading to drifting through Saddleworth into M62 areas. 
The snow line will then lift through all levels into the afternoon. However remain as snow above 350m leading to further issues on higher routes.

Merseyside / West Lancashire / West Cheshire.

Areas west of Manchester and towards the Merseyside coast may see a more substantial area of heavier sleet and perhaps wet snow through Thursday. Here, elevations between the coast and 100m may see accumulations up to 3cm before a progression to rain through the afternoon. In particular higher parts of West Lancashire, elevated West Cheshire above 200ft may see a period of settling wet snow.

North West Midlands.

The North West Midlands is likely to see more extensive accumulations of 1-7cm through Shropshire, Staffordshire and South Derbyshire with above 8cm locally above 200m. However, a tight gradient leading to lesser accumulations North of Stoke on Trent upto Macclesfield and North Cheshire such that towns such as Sandbach, Holmes Chapel see lesser and more sporadic accumulations which then phase out into Greater Manchester.
Milder air will push into this region later in the evening lifting the snow line above 250m.

Yorkshire.

Across West Yorkshire and South Yorkshire a gradient for snow accumulation is likely to form between low elevations east of Sheffield and west of Lincolnshire seeing a period of heavy sleet / wet snow producing slight amounts of up to 2cm with scattered accumulations of wet snow producing 1-4cm between 80m and 150m with amounts increasing to 10cm+ above 200m West of Sheffield and Leeds.

Edited February 6 by Kasim Awan

[raul_sbd]

 Kasim Awan Thanks for that Kasim!! Brilliant post and very informative...

Yet and due to my 11am appointment in Manchester City center you think will be not issues for travel car/train to the City from Glossop? I really cannot miss this haha.. and for much I love snow I need to make it

[Kasim Awan]

 raul_sbd You'll be fine from Glossop. Trains in Buxton don't stop unless drifts are upto train window level.

[raul_sbd]

 Kasim Awan Thanks man! tbh I expect around 2-5cm over here that if the shadow effect doesn't take place being that close of the Peak District elevations  I may need to visit @WillinGlossop with his 300 m elevation to see something more substantial over here.

[loubie_4]

 Kasim Awan looks like we’ll miss out again then. The barest of temporary dustings overnight from the last event. Would love to see some decent snowfall leaving a covering here. 

[tvh3382]

 Kasim Awan have you forgot about East Lancashire?

[winterof79]

 Kasim Awan Cheers bud.

amounts increasing to 10cm+ above 200m West of Sheffield and Leeds

Take it where i am falls into this category hopefully

 

Edited February 6 by winterof79

[cheshire snow]

 Day 10 looking good mate even for low lying Cheshire 

[frosty ground]

 Kasim Awan 2-4 cm north east of Oldham leading to drifting, you sure ?

[iand61]

 tvh3382  dry, lengthy sunny spells and temperatures into the low 20’s here in Rossendale then maybe warming up a bit over the weekend

 

 

[Alexis]

Why nothing much below 200m Kasim going by the freezing level in the Deep Dive? They show a freezing level of sea level to the west of the region, even out to sea.