Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Joe Snow]

 cheshire snow How much are we thinking for us South Cheshire lot? I would say 1-3cm wet covering  turning to sleet then rain overnight into Fri maybe more if we are very lucky. MO Deep Dive forecast highlighting the potential for disruption for northern cities - MCR/ Liverpool& North Mids. 

Edited February 6 by Joe Snow

[Day 10]

 Joe Snow

Here's that setup Joe

[Cheshire Freeze]

I remember the Feb 2007 event- forecast to be a wet day with temperatures into low single figures. Instead we got 10cm of lying snow, even here with temperatures around freezing.

[Chris.R]

 iand61 I'd kill to be in your location right now. You're going to do very well. You will likely see a transition to freezing rain/ice pellets from early hours Friday though and then regular rain by Friday lunchtime. Not sure there's anything we can do about it eventually turn to rain south of Cumbria. 

[Kasim Awan]

 loubie_4 You are under the West Lancashire area which has a reasonable chance of some settling wet snow. You are out of the snow shield but still need optimal conditions for snow. 

@tvh3382 I don't know East Lancashire all that well. I'd say scattered accumulations between Blackpool and 100m early on then 2-4cm above 100m or east of Accrington / Haslingden with 8cm above 350m.

@winterof79 You are not quite in 10cm+ at 160m. I'd say 3-7cm more likely at such a modest altitude. 

[Kasim Awan]

There will be no shield away circled so Manchester city centre, Ashton, Stockport, Wilmslow and Poynton.

So places like Northwich, Warrington, Liverpool, Wirral, etc are still in for a decent chance. Will update tomorrow.

[cheshire snow]

 Joe Snow 5-8cm

[Chris.R]

I am personally going for a top down transition rather than a bottom up one. I mean I'm expecting snow to melt higher in the atmosphere first before it starts to become marginal at the surface. I'm not doing a forecast until tomorrow but at the moment I'm thinking much greater accumulation Might be possible. 

[Joe Bloggs]

26 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

 

 raul_sbd You'll be fine from Glossop. Trains in Buxton don't stop unless drifts are upto train window level.

 

I was stranded on a train just outside Dove Holes in March 2013. The engines were at full pelt but we just stopped moving.

[iand61]

 Chris.R  I think it all depends on how far north the system gets as the track seems to keep it a bit further south now than it was earlier.

We’re certainly in the sweet spot as far as Lancashire, and particularly East Lancashire goes if the heavier stuff reaches here and should be far enough north to be clear of the Manchester rain shadow but we’ll see.

 

[Kasim Awan]

 frosty ground 2-4cm above 150m so easily 10cm+ above 250m or so.

[Joe Snow]

 cheshire snow Maybe I’m being over cautious it’s giving me 18th Jan 2013 vibes that was a good event here. 

[winterof79]

Can i just say what a fantastic refreshing group this is.

Knowledgeable too.

[raul_sbd]

 Joe Bloggs That will be a taxi from there lol.. if that happens.. or just long walk ahah

[Stephen_Mcr]

Not feeling this one, especially in this immediate location.

Temps are very marginal and this comes in after a pretty mild spell so no real prolonged period of embedded cold (or even cool weather) either (ground temps etc)... that combined with the M60 snow shield makes me pessimistic.

Should be good for some of the region though for a bit.... some interest is better than no interest.

 

[Day 10]

 Joe Snow

That Winter was actually very good here, however, we then went 5 years without.

Others that year...

27th Feb 2018.

Then, 8th March 2018.

Did you get anything then?

[Chris.R]

 iand61 yeah there is a chance there might be less precip over youthan currently expected but at least for you it should all stick.

Here is the WRF raw data for your location.

Meteociel - Prévisions météo fines WRF heure par heure neige pour Bacup ( Grande-Bretagne )

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Prévisions météo gratuites et précises à 3 jours heure par heure pour Bacup ( Grande-Bretagne ) basées sur le modèle WRF. Graphiques horaires de températures et pluie.

 

Edited February 6 by Chris.R

[Dark Horse]

 Stephen_Mcr Yeah I'm keeping my hopes low on this. Looks like a strong chance of a shield. In the past I was often doubtful, "maybe it'll be wrong" but nope, when virtually every model is showing it then it's a red flag for me. So I cannot see there being anything other than a dusting here. They don't have to be flat but if the Pennines were 300-400m smaller we'd be laughing. A small row of hills and the shield would be way less of an issue, if at all.

[WillinGlossop]

 raul_sbd

Peak District update looks good

im sure you’ll be fine getting to Manchesterford

 Kasim Awan

cheers Kasim very informative as always

[Joe Bloggs]

13 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

There will be no shield away circled so Manchester city centre, Ashton, Stockport, Wilmslow and Poynton.

So places like Northwich, Warrington, Liverpool, Wirral, etc are still in for a decent chance. Will update tomorrow.

I hate this phenomenon so much. Absolutely vile. 
 

Why is it so prominent when the Peaks are such modest altitude? Also do we just notice this one because it affects a major urban area and frontal snow events usually have winds from an easterly quarter ? 
 

Makes me sick!

[Chris.R]

 Day 10 8th March event was amazing in Crosby. Got 8 cm, more than beast from the east. Classic evaporative cooling event... Started as rain... transitioned to heavy snow. Nobody was expecting much beforehand, I was optimistic though.

[Joe Snow]

 Day 10 I was in N London for Winter 2017/18 - the BFTE was superb down there - deep snow even in Central London so I can see why they salivate over Easterlies! But yeah judging by family & friends pics & those charts we did have snowfall in Cheshire 27th/28th Feb 2018 and then again in March 2018. Jan 2013 was snowy here - 18th Jan the biggest event of the winter but Mar 2013 was cold, grey with several near miss events. 

 

Thurs will be a nowcast but here’s hoping for at least a temporary covering for all  

[Day 10]

 Chris.R

Yeah, I remember waking up early hours to torrential rain and thinking oh well nevermind, woke up to it being eerily quiet and got the shock of my life when opening the curtains. Surprise snow is always the best.

 Joe Snow

Nice one, great timing then

[Day 10]

 Kasim Awan

The Met think so too.

The Wirral's best setup is this and normally Liverpool's too.

 

 

 

Edited February 6 by Day 10

[Empire Of Snow]

It's absolutely bonkers to me that a lot of people Midlands south want the system to shift even more south. Unless I'm reading the charts completely wrong, any further south correction will result to a more extensive/intrusive warm sector for these areas. This means the snow window will narrow down time wise. 

Maybe Kasim or someone else can clarify this or correct me if I'm completely wrong.