Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[russwirral]

This may sound naff but i think knowing too much detail is what disappoints us more than the weather itself...

 

I get quite nostalgic and miss the days of low res forecasts like this 

 

 

[Kasim Awan]

 Joe Bloggs 

Blame the last 800 million years of geological uplift and last 10 or so glacial periods for calving away the central Cambrian mountains.

It's because of how extensive the high ground is. 60-70 miles of 300-600m land to your South East, whereas only 30-40miles to your east but Kinder plateau is there. However in a convective flow the topography to your east allows some intensification into Glossop / Oldham and into East Manchester and helps keep some intensity further West aswell. This is not the case on a frontal system as convective flows have different physics involved.

[Empire Of Snow]

 russwirral , true. More tools doesn't always mean more accuracy. I'm grateful we have all these tools accessible to us but like you sometimes I miss the old days. 

[northwestsnow]

 Kasim Awan

Absolutely.

BFTE was absolutely epic locally..

Saddleworth gets hammered in an Easterly flow..

[Joe Bloggs]

 Kasim Awan it’s all very interesting stuff really. 
 

There aren’t really any other urban areas in the UK with similar geography (extensive high ground immediately to the E). 
 

I haven’t watched the MetO deep dive but I wonder if it’s covered on there. I reckon a fair few Mancs will wonder where the snow is on Thursday. 

[Kasim Awan]

 northwestsnow You do well in an easterly front aswell especially 250m+. Remember it's the drop in elevation on the western side of the Pennines that causes the air to dry and warm. So if Manchester was above 200m it'd still get snow, albeit lighter than 200m further East.

@Joe Bloggs it's very rarely discussed.

Edited February 6 by Kasim Awan

[Joe Bloggs]

 Kasim Awan Manchester is the second biggest urban area in the UK and the population is growing rapidly. 
 

Maybe it should get a mention in forecasts when frontal snow is forecast widely across Northern England as the graphics can sometimes be misleading. I’ve heard it mentioned once by Dianne Oxberry (RIP) in 2013. 

[Winter Hill]

 Kasim Awan

That is what exactly happens in my area. 
as I stated before, from a Easterly I will get showers but far lighter than Oldham, Etc. 

[Tim A]

 Day 10 Interesting their model looks much better than the always patchy snow cover on the UKV.

That looks decent , plus it's only 7pm Thursday and could be more overnight into Friday morning before it turns to rain . 

[Geordiesnow]

 russwirral

I can see it both ways, it is good too see how things have advanced that we can have more detailed forecasts but the downside is some takes the graphics too literally and get hung up with what they are showing.

As I always say, it's what the radar says that counts the most. Going from experience, I'm expecting very little here due to the rainfall shadow affect, I don't think the air is all that cold either and there will be alot of mixing. I think PPN will be quite patchy to the west of the hills aswell and it could be one of those infamous days where the radar says PPN is falling but nothing is actually reaching the ground until it's too marginal. 

I be a bit more excited if I was living on much higher ground and maybe the Liverpool area but even then, any snowfall is likely to be transient.

[northwestsnow]

hope it's a good event for as many as possible.

I'm not sure my altitude be as important as expected it will be more the rain shadow effect that spoils things here.

Give me an Easterly every single time, kasim has probably explained very well why Oldham does well in an Easterly.. ( north easterlies work too btw).

 

[damianslaw]

 Kasim Awan A detailed prognosis there Kasim.

Any thoughts for the north of the region? i.e. Cumbria. We seem best placed to hold onto the colder air for longest..

[The Northern Ramper]

 russwirral

100% this 

All we had to go off was the countryfile forecast, teletext forecast and standard weather forecasts for the next 24-48hrs back in the 80’s and 90’s.  Oh and Lamppost’s

 

[northwestsnow]

 The Northern Ramper lamppost watching i cant tell you how many hours i spent staring at the streetlight in the late 70s to mid  80s ...

 

[The Northern Ramper]

 northwestsnow

Knowing your area well im sure you’ll be ok if not as much as the same elevation over the hill.

[Day 10]

All the models I can think of at 9am & 12 noon for Thursday.

WRF

HARMONE

AROME

ARPEGE

ICON

ECM

GFS

[The Northern Ramper]

 northwestsnow

Probably as much as me mate, lived in Stockport early 80’s and there was several letdowns. By 91 we’d moved to Mossley and I remember some amazing falls.  I’d gone to bed there was no sign of anything, I awoke for my paperwork to a foot of untouched snow. Awesome

[Had Worse]

 northwestsnow Nothing more annoying than when the lamp blew. 

Edited February 6 by Had Worse

[Scuba steve]

 northwestsnow here’s hoping 

 

Edited February 6 by Scuba steve

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, The Northern Ramper said:

I awoke for my paperwork to a foot of untouched snow. Awesome

Amazing!

[iand61]

 Had Worse  the old fashioned sodium lamps where the snowy sky had an orange colour about it.

now it’s all white LED stuff although the first light flakes are easier to spot.

[Had Worse]

 iand61 I can remember the giant incandescent filament lamps they used in the street lights in the 1970's. 

They were changed in the late 70s, early 80s fpr the low pressure sodium.

[Had Worse]

For any newbies, this is the joy of lamppost watching. 

[Day 10]

 Had Worse

Lol, I was just posting this if anyone wants an early snow fix.

From the 31st minute onward it goes truly nuts!

 

[The Northern Ramper]

 Had Worse I could watch that for hours.