Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24

[Don]

Need to see what the UKV says this afternoon.

[sheikhy]

 MattStoke basically all the models have gone back to showing what the metoffice warnings were suggesting till they cancelled em out this morning!!!maybe jumped the gun too soon?!!

[Midlander]

In marginal situations like this, it is quite nice to have a look at the HD zoom AROME, ARPEGE. Can clearly spot the higher elevation areas

Edited February 6 by Midlander

[Metwatch]

I can see why the UKV 12z is showing rain now here, 3-4c on the surface as the the precipitation arrives, so the boundary of the warm sector reaches north of here, still snow for north Midlands / Peaks. Evidence of evaporative cooling if you flick between 6am and 10am across north Midlands, it gets a little colder.

Edited February 6 by Metwatch

[Midlander]

UKMO 12Z slightly more appealing than the 06Z

 

Edited February 6 by Midlander

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Iffy FAX, big mild sector S of warm front, could really do with slight nudge south, areas N of warm front seeing snow

 

[Supacell]

I may be in with a chance of some snow on Thursday looking at the many models and forecasts. All of them show snow over Derbyshire for a time on Thursday. As others have said, it's a pity it won't last though. 

The Peak District and places such as Buxton look in for a dumping.

Forecast for Belper. Will probably show rain in a few hours though.

Edited February 6 by Supacell

[markw2680]

Whilst it’s starting to look like large areas of the midlands could be in with a shout it’s still Tuesday and so that’s plenty of time for change when it involves snow. Is this time tomorrow it’s looking similar then yes there’s a decent chance but even then Iv seen it all go pear shaped. Yes it’s exciting but we really need to remember how things go wrong when snow is involved 

[MattStoke]

GFS raw data for my postcode.

[MattStoke]

Arpege mean is just daft. Must be some members that keep it really far south.

Edited February 6 by MattStoke

[sheikhy]

 I remember Atlantic 252 that a lovely chart for us!!front just to the south of us still at midday cold air over us with an easterly undercut!!!!!

[andy_leics22]

 sheikhy Might take a trip up to Bradgate Park on Thursday, I bet they'll have a dumping up near Old John

[Metwatch]

In more current news, colder air has now arrived; a sharp temperature drop from 11C to 7C accompanied with the squall line, part of the cold front. Should get close to freezing by tomorrow morning

15 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

take a trip up to Bradgate Park on Thursday, I bet they'll have a dumping up near Old John

Beacon / Bardon hill are even higher, they would be the top spots.

Not to take snow depth charts too literally as always but those hills around Coalville would be on the money! WRF as well

 

Edited February 6 by Metwatch

[I remember Atlantic 252]

could do with nudge south still, that EC chart looks a bit far north

[Midlander]

Still hoping for some further southerly shunts, but you can see the ECMWF 12Z was further south than the 00Z

 

[sheikhy]

Ecm is an big upgrade on its 00z!!!especially snow totals!!

[MKN]

 sheikhy unless your west of Ireland and have gone from 28cms to 4 in one run

[Don]

 sheikhy

Deffo!  However, more twists and turns to come, probably all the way to T0!

[Don]

 MKN Yes, not an upgrade for everyone!  I was guilty of looking at my location only!  

[nobble]

High risk high reward type scenario in play 

 

Even another shift south of say 30 miles

 

could be widely 15 cm of snow across the west mids 

30 miles north and game over 

 

[sheikhy]

 MKN yeh for once its a downgrade for someone else and not us!!!dontfeel bad at all lol!

[MKN]

 Don the difference the ecm shows 00z to 12z is if the low is slightly weaker than anticipated then the result is a slightly more southerly track but with precip amounts generally a bit lower also. It's a balancing act to get the perfect outcome. 

[markw2680]

I still think there’s going to be a 50 mile shift yet north or south, obviously hoping south but could be either although today there’s definitely a shift south in proceedings 

[Snowyowl9]

Very heavy rain later today almost 1 inch the floods will be back very soon after the snow..after this  low now wants hang around..

The modelling has been dire this week on that low..

 

[Ms Rock & Blues]

Feeling a bit fed up that snow is now probably rain or snow then rain again. Would just love a few snowy crisp days plus a bit of sun....