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Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24

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nobble Rising Star

nobble

Posted
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
Posted

At least there’s a chance of snow falling and temporary accumulations 👌🏼

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted
4 minutes ago, nobble said:

least there’s a chance of snow falling and temporary accumulations 👌🏼

Hopefully 🤣

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

Anyway, does anyone still remember the times when all we had was the FAX charts 

🤭

 

IMG_1406.thumb.jpeg.1e0966f613a8da08a26d235495e782b6.jpeg

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
2 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Yes the rollercoaster begins

After this winter so far, not sure I'm up for another roller coaster ride?! 🤢

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

ICON is cannon fodder, though, and the GFS performs very poorly in these scenarios. It’s changed hugely from its previous runs.

I thought the ICON was quite a highly regarded model?

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
1 hour ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Anyway this isn’t the model thread….we don’t throw toys 🤣🤣🤣

That could well change during the next 24/48 hours...... 🤫

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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted

18z has moved back North a touch. Looking like a fairly transient affair for most of us from snow to rain but may be an interesting hour or two before it does at least.  

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

 Don

what bigger Toys…..I’ve my Tonka toys still if that’ll do 🤣🤣🤣

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

 MKN Yep! looks like game over for us if that ends up being accurate. Stoke may still be good for snow, but Leicester, Coventry, Birmingham, sleet to rain. Will be interesting to see what the 0z UKMO comes up with. If it sticks to its guns, then I honestly don't know which way it'll go 😂

h850t850eu.png

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

what bigger Toys…..I’ve my Tonka toys still if that’ll do 🤣🤣🤣

Hopefully laptops don't class as toys?! 🤔

5 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

ep! looks like game over for us if that ends up being accurate. Stoke may still be good for snow, but Leicester, Coventry, Birmingham, sleet to rain. Will be interesting to see what the 0z UKMO comes up with. If it sticks to its guns, then I honestly don't know which way it'll go 😂

The way things are these days, that probably will be accurate!

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

 Don I think that saying "Can they do it on a cold, rainy night in Stoke" Needs to be changed to a "Cold, snowy night in Stoke" 🤣 Place to be these days for snow!

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nobble Rising Star

nobble

Posted
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
Posted

We live in hope for ❄️⛄️

and early today briefly looked on 

 

perhaps it will change back , we shall see 🌨️

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
14 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

I think that saying "Can they do it on a cold, rainy night in Stoke" Needs to be changed to a "Cold, snowy night in Stoke" 🤣 Place to be these days for snow!

Yes, I didn't realise Stoke was a snowy sweet spot until this winter!

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

Still a good chance of snow on Thurs, but a very quick thaw at low levels, GFS is constantly showing this, fair to say EC trended that way as well

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nobble Rising Star

nobble

Posted
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
Posted

Heavy snow symbols are back ❄️❄️❄️😅 

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

 nobble

Where are them they then 🤣🤣🤣

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WeatherArc Seasoned

WeatherArc

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and long, sunny summers
  • Location: Birmingham
Posted

Fingers crossed for this upcoming spell, to be honest i would take a dusting at this point.  The only snow I've seen so far this winter was a small dusting of sleety snow that soon turned back into rain in early December, was about 1 am when it fell and had completely gone by the morning. 

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted

This all seems to be falling apart.  Max's for me according to the Metoffice have gone in the last hour from 6C on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, to 8C, 8C and 7C!  Earlier on, highs of 5C were shown. 

Think we know where this is going.....

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

 Don The thing that's worried me about this is that the GFS has remained bullish and not backed down to be in line with the UKMO output. I have seen it many times where the UKMO went for a snowier battleground scenario while the GFS showed rain and the GFS ended up being correct. That's not to say that the GFS is always right, but I fear it will be this time.

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Author
Posted

Winds touching gale force here at times now.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

That's not to say that the GFS is always right, but I fear it will be this time.

It will be correct, believe me! 😒

Concerns about longer term this evening, too.  This has been a dreadful winter!

Edited by Don
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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted
19 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Winds touching gale force here at times now.

I can certainly say it’s not a gale here, but yes I can say here the winds are very strong 💨💨💨💨

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted (edited)

GFS has changed massively compared to other models. It’s always the worst performing model in this situation. I don’t know why people get hung up on it and claim it’s been most consistent when it plainly hasn’t. The 0z has me still with snow cover into next week. Previous runs didn’t even bring any snow.

Anyway, on a more cheery note, the Arpege is an improvement.

IMG_3733.jpeg

Edited by MattStoke
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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted

I’d snap someone’s hand off for the GFS output but it’s nothing like previous runs. No consistency from it.

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