Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Lukesluckybunch]

32 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The only thing that's confusing me this morning is I can't see where EC 46 is getting the blocking signal from down the line if anything pressure looks low to our North

The ec46 does look pretty awsome!it would be just our luck for the cold too arrive in march.!we ideally want mid-to late february

[AO-]

 northwestsnow

This really isn't low pressure to the North. It is a cold hp, that is for sure. 

 

For a proper Grreenland Block we only need WAA in the West now. 

Edited February 1 by AO-

[Ice Day]

My 'Raised Eyebrowometer' has increased to level 3 this morning. Days 9 and especially 10 on the ECM, look very snowy and cold for most

 

 

The GEM is on the same page at day 10, day 11 would probably also be cold and snowy

 

An increasing number of cold GEFS around days 9 onwards

We're definitely looking in a better place this morning, but of course, at this range, we need to treat the micro scale for our little island with much caution, BUT we're not looking at day 10, the evolution on the ECM is relatively fixed by day 7/8. 

It would be nice to see this place get a little busier, I have a suspicion that it just might!

 

[jules216]

The most steady forecast in the seasonal models was that February was supposed to hold biggest prospects of cold/blocked regime(Cansip,UKMO,ECMWF) now All of the sudden new Cansip has given up the ghost. I am saying this for a while that cold Scandinavia has correlated increddibly well with mild rest of the Europe - south/central ever since June 2023 turnaround and long term demise of Scandi high pressure. I wonder if any experts out there dare to find a reason why Scandinavia is like forever under trough despite any variability/teleconnection out there.

[Blessed Weather]

8 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Very pleased with the overall output this morning. The trend is becoming clear i.e heights increasing to our N, Heights decreasing to our S with the infamous Iberian high being replaced by low pressure as the jetstream takes a much more S,ly route. At the same time low pressure over the UK slowly moving E introducing a cold, unstable potentially snowy spell of weather.

With the usual caveats about using 'past climatology' anomaly composites, the MJO Phase 7 and 8 February/Nino composites certainly support that evolution TEITS. MJO charts rotated for comparison with GFS 500 anom on 15th Feb:

Ph 7

Ph 8 ................late Feb??

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Arctic high a bit more evident on the ICON 6z..would this help force the trough over Scandi south?

[Mike Poole]

Things are continuing to gather momentum this morning on the ECM clusters.  T192-T240:

The Euro trough now in place by day 9 across the clusters,  The build of heights towards Greenland is most evident on cluster 3, all clusters have a strong northerly component to the flow by day 10.

T264+:

Cluster 1 here has the strong Greenland block from yesterday and has 22 members.  Cluster 2 hugs this closer to Iceland extending to Scandi and draws in an easterly, has 15 members.

Cluster 3 ends up with a UK high and cluster 4 westerly then builds another Atlantic ridge.

[northwestsnow]

00Z CLUSTERS !!!

Hope I'm going to get to test out my extra altitude!!

Edited February 1 by northwestsnow

[Duane S.]

As has been showing up more and more in the past few days, heights are definitely trending to drop below us going through next week. The MJO influence starting to shine through on the output. Expect more and better of the same.

Winter 23/24 chase #3 now well underway

Edited February 1 by Paul

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

@northwestsnowhave you just moved house ?

[northwestsnow]

 Severe Siberian icy blast yes mate I'm an extra 100m now  !! 

Hills around me 350m+ ...like 5 mins walk from my front door

[LRD]

50 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Nothing obvious to derail the direction of travel at this time although still unsure if we arrive via an A road, motorway or single lane track 

Or whether we travel in a Porsche, Ford Fiesta or horse-drawn carriage

[Dennis]

icon6z

[LRD]

Big picture may look good but ICON still leaves us bathed in warm SW'lies

Very mild end to Jan leading to a very mild start of Feb. Tedious stuff

Edited February 1 by LRD

[Lukesluckybunch]

156 will be needing that low to move southeast now into Europe!it's horrible,it's just staying out west!

Edited February 1 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[frosty ground]

 northwestsnow

that’s why the snow has dried up

the outlooks looks very promising, just a matter of where the boundary will be before days 9 & 10, I think a few surprises next week, if you expect them are they still surprises?

 LRD at day 5? 

[Lukesluckybunch]

 

8 minutes ago, LRD said:

Big picture may look good but ICON still leaves us bathed in warm SW'lies

LRD facts!the bigger picture always looks good past day 10

[LRD]

 Lukesluckybunch Yep, it's just the same old boring story for UK winters. Day 9 and 10 are the snowiest places on Earth!

I do happen to think things will get colder in mid-Feb but snowy nirvana, I suspect, is pretty unlikely. Met Office and EC46 are promising. But promise is nothing until it's delivered on

A poor NH view on the 6z GFS. So even day 9 doesn't look great on this run

Edited February 1 by LRD

[IDO]

Why there was so much scatter on the GEFS is evident with the 06z -v- 0z at D9:

Subtle variations where the trough dives and differences in flows that can cut off the cold uppers, as well as how the cut-off UK low develops, mean massive differences in surface condition, average temps 06z and rain versus colder and snow on 0z at the same time period.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

Yep, it's just the same old boring story for UK winters. Day 9 and 10 are the snowiest places on Earth!

It always happens to amaze me..how somewhere like norway,not a million miles away..can be so much different in terms of cold!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Haha something cooler..looks to become established by 234..but it's looking short-lived..the Azores hp wants to wake up!and without decent blocking to the north!in fact it's a right mess approaching day 10

Edited February 1 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[feb1991blizzard]

Poor GFS 6z in short term (not wholly unexpected) but the whining in here is OTT over one op, when its nowhere near the target date for expected cold.

[MJB]

1 hour ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

  2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

The only thing that's confusing me this morning is I can't see where EC 46 is getting the blocking signal from down the line if anything pressure looks low to our North

Phase 8 maybe ?

[Cambrian]

Ah, if only we could get the EPS on board within the 10 day timeframe with this idea of a trough set up to the east of us, digging south into Europe and completely flushing out the heights from Iberia, a surface low pressure over Denmark, with cold air spilling south on a northerly flow into the UK and Ireland…

  

…and the cold, cyclonic pattern solidly indicated for several days now in these ensemble means beginning to feed through to the ops from day 9… 0z ECM, GEM

 

…and some helpful EC46 outputs for the next two weeks showing the establishment of a trough working south out of Scandinavia into Europe with heights rising to the northwest, not over Iberia…

 

…and those pesky ECM temperature anomaly charts to actually show clear cold through the middle to end of February…

 

…and a growing NAO- signal on the regimes forecast alternating with blocking and Atlantic ridge signals from around 1 weeks time through to the middle of March…

…then it might be worth getting just a little bit interested. 

But until there’s a core trend like that, I’ll be more swayed by single run outputs like the 6z GFS op…

[Ali1977]

 Lukesluckybunch It’s one Op run, the last one was snowy by day 9 - there will be lots of chopping and changing as models try to work out the path of the LP swinging SE at day 6-10!! I think the best thing is to watch for trends in the ENS for now!! 

Edited February 1 by Ali1977