Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[seabreeze86]

Starting to get interested again, decent snow event on the GFS 

The UKMO looks cold also 

[nick sussex]

Some interesting developments so far !

The UKMO developing that wedge to the nw at day 6 . The GFS 12 hrs run further south with the Atlantic low which in this run tries to eject a separate shortwave . This helped by more forcing to the n . 

[Harsh Climate]

This here is a carbon copy of what brought 6-10" snow to northern England a couple of years ago, We had 3 of these type of snowfalls that winter!

  

[Lukesluckybunch]

Lovely improvement we are so close at day 7!..hopefully some height rises north of the trough over Scandinavia..to help prolong things.let's see...

Edited February 1 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Ice Day]

The GFS actually showing a significant snow event a week from today for central and northern England

Interesting mid-term upgrades today

[Harsh Climate]

 Lukesluckybunch

For me today's great output is no surprise, For the last 5 days or so we have seen great charts move closer by 24 hours each day, from 240 hours all the way down to <162h. Like clock work, can't believe some of the panic over the last couple of days!

[nick sussex]

We are now beginning to see divergences upstream between the UKMO and GFS .

Will be interesting to see the UKMO day 7 ! 

 

[sheikhy]

Heuston!!!!do we have lift off?!!!........

[Ice Day]

According to the GFS, the snow continues for those in the sweet spot into Friday 

The GEM, however, still wants to blow the low up at 168

Much to be resolved, it will be interesting to see the UK 168.  I suspect it will side more with the GFS than the GEM

Edited February 1 by Ice Day

[Harsh Climate]

 sheikhy

I'm sorry but that is just plain old rain for you .

No, with the general southward corrections, we have seen of lows over the last few cold spells, somewhere in the south could be in the sweetspot (should it happen.) Just hopefully not France! 

Edited February 1 by Harsh Climate

[frosty ground]

Looks very static next week, very wet or very snowy or even both a few miles  apart 

GFS is a snowy route 

[nick sussex]

 Ice Day

I think we’ll end up with 3 different outcomes on day 7 .

Thankfully there’s no way the UKMO can follow the GEM at that timeframe.

Edited February 1 by nick sussex

[Ice Day]

My word, the GFS is throwing out a stonker at day 9

 

[Mike Poole]

GFS 12z is turning into an absolute belter!

T210:

It’s often said in jest, but I get the impression that, for once, this really is a case of the models ‘smelling the coffee’ as regards MJO evolution, and upgrading accordingly.

[Dancerwithwings]

 Ice Day

wow…forget the pub run, it’s been on the all day*a

[frosty ground]

 Mike Poole

 

not much high level blocking in play, what’s driving the low into Iberia? 

[Ice Day]

 nick sussex Hopefully so, although the GEM gets there in the end, looks great for the north to be fair

 

[frosty ground]

Looks like a not so classic +ve NAO 

[sheikhy]

 Harsh Climate gives me an asbolute pasting into friday morning!!but as you say nothing to worry about  cos it shall either end up in france or way up into scotland!im in lose lose situation!!story of this pathetic winter lol!!!!

[Mike Poole]

 frosty ground Modest wedge in the Atlantic at T192 helps, will be interesting to see if height rises progress into Greenland later in the run.  

I think it has been clear that, initially, modest wedges are part of the evolution rather than a sudden large block - although a large block later has been evident on the EPS clusters in the extended since yesterday.

Edited February 1 by Mike Poole

[Lukesluckybunch]

I wouldn't call it a fantastic run..maybe a 7/10 it still takes a while for the decent cold too arrive beyond day 8.but we can improve from here!

[CoventryWeather]

UKMO is a beauty at 144. Cold air right through the UK to the south coast.

GFS backtracking again after what it seemed to be the one who picked the trend up (unless you allow the ECM to take that bit). 

Edited February 1 by CoventryWeather

[Battleground Snow]

Yes please ukmo at 168.

Snow for all but the extreme south west 

[Ice Day]

UKMO at 168 - very good

 

Edit - @Battleground Snow beat me to it!

Edited February 1 by Ice Day

[Lampostwatcher]

Ukmo 12z bank that 

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