Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[northwestsnow]

EC DAY 10

[MJB]

15 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Cold and snowy looking ECM at day 216,

Now where have I heard that  

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC DAY 10

Countrywide covering!

[TillyS]

Morning all. 

A little bit of interest middle of next week with some cold zonality / bit of a northerly. A bit of snow possible mainly in the north.

I’m taking the sleeper up to the Scottish Highlands in 10 days so will hopefully wake up to a beautiful white scene over the Cairngorms.

Forget talk of "pattern changes" for now. It isn’t. But it should be a bit more wintry than this remarkable mild spell. In the meantime the maximum date record is under threat today. 16.1C to beat. Could you be 15C+ up in the Moray Firth area.

Edited February 2 by TillyS

[MJB]

Lets throw GEM in for all to see, just for the wow! factor

[TillyS]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Countrywide covering!

If we didn’t ramp up expectations like this there wouldn’t be so much intense disappointment.

 

[MJB]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

but it also risks rain.

Cold rain as mentioned by the Beeb  

2 minutes ago, TillyS said:

If we didn’t ramp up expectations like this there wouldn’t be so much intense disappointment.

Law of averages.....................sooner or later our turn will come, what do they say " even a broken clock is right twice a day "  

Edited February 2 by MJB

[TillyS]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

proper cold spell in-bound.

It's okay. Nothing amazing at the moment. 

We should remember that until now the Atlantic has been resurgent with an incredibly powerful storm just passing to the north of the UK. More powerful than the October 1987 one. There is still next-to-no northerly blocking and every time we think the Iberian High is on the way out it seems to bounce back.

So let’s keep this tempered. Remember: nearly all cold spells showing at T240+ seem to downgrade these days nearer the time. And this one is by no means stellar.

[northwestsnow]

 MJB yes looks wet next week for most.

interest next weekend

[Dennis]

the change getting in from 7th 

[Lukesluckybunch]

It's all about the initial placement of the low,around day 7..if we can get that further south..then we could be in the game quicker..otherwise we will have to wait for the wrap around of colder air from East or the north as it moves through!

Edited February 2 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[Lukesluckybunch]

9 minutes ago, MJB said:

Lets throw GEM in for all to see, just for the wow! factor

 

It's a great run marcus very true!

[northwestsnow]

 Lukesluckybunch yes we want the initial low at day 5 as far south as possible..

Edited February 2 by northwestsnow

[winterof79]

 TillyS

240+? The North of England maybe further south has the first hit of cold midweek then the fun starts.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

yes we want the initial low at loy 5 as far south as possible..

Absolutely...ukmo has moved away from this..ecm isn't really sure..but gem is certain!

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

240+? The North of England maybe further south has the first hit of cold midweek then the fun starts

Hopefully that snowline creeps south..as the cold starts to dig in!

[winterof79]

The probability of winds from a Northerly/ Easterly quadrant increases as the PV is destroyed late winter and in to Early spring i feel

Edited February 2 by winterof79

[Tim Bland]

For a sustainable cold spell GEM looks great! 

[Marting]

ECM giving quite high confidence out at day 10 on the meteograms 

[markw2680]

Personally I’d be happy with a good dump even if it was gone the next day, just getting snow around here seems impossible these days. Can’t handle another dry cold spell.

things certainly starting to look interesting again at last but as we all know it could all be gone come tomorrow so let’s not get carried away just yet 

[frosty ground]

 Lukesluckybunch

it need to be to the east of the UK rather than just the south of the UK 

[Purga]

GEM is a cracker from D7 onwards

[nick sussex]

Now that the UKMO has decided on the worst solution let’s hope it’s not right.

The change between last nights and today’s run is embarrassing.

As for the rest clearly the GEM is the standout but it would be miraculous if that was right .

The ECM is similar to last night so a still but meh .

The GFS is better with a more southerly jet . The ICON has a similar evolution to last nights UKMO .

Overall the outputs get a 6.5 /10.

The UKMO brought the average down and needs to do one ! 

 

[AO-]

 Purga Good Morning 

We need the through to pass east. First a dump of snow, followed by a Northeasterly. Both GFS and GEM are great in that sense, albeit that GFS is an outlier. I hope that is the trend. 

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, TillyS said:

It's okay. Nothing amazing at the moment. 

We should remember that until now the Atlantic has been resurgent with an incredibly powerful storm just passing to the north of the UK. More powerful than the October 1987 one. There is still next-to-no northerly blocking and every time we think the Iberian High is on the way out it seems to bounce back.

So let’s keep this tempered. Remember: nearly all cold spells showing at T240+ seem to downgrade these days nearer the time. And this one is by no means stellar.

Most sensible post and level headed post I've read this morning! Remember the Snowmageddon / 1947/1963 , charts we were seeing not so many weeks ago ,of a Winter not to forget? Well most if it ,we have forgot ,with just normal wintertime synoptics, this so called cold spell of weather coming up in about a weeks time ,looks mediocre at best, with snow over the upland areas especially in the north.  Sorry to be a bit negative with my post, but as I've seen umpteen times before ,models often over estimate forthcoming cold spell, and to be quite honest the model output for cold is very marginal for cold and longevity,just looking at normal February winter cold,  the jigsaw pieces are not in the right place ,I'm afraid ,no blocking in the places what matter for cold to be notable in the UK. ...

[Tim Bland]

 nick sussex  usually I’d be worried about the UKMO not being on side, but it’s shown itself to be very unreliable after the blizzard it showed yesterday and complete 360 today!